Who you got for the NBA title this year?

[Brendan]

The same thing happens every year. It's not a coincidence.

Referees make no difference?
"Donaghy began gambling on NBA games while employed as a referee in 2003. Between that time and the end of the 2006-07 season, Donaghy and his accomplices bet on approximately 40 games a season with an incredibly high success rate (some estimates figure they were correct over 80% of the time)."
80% success rate? If that's what one referee can do, what success rate do you think all the referees could get? 90%?

How come home teams win so often in the NBA? More games won at home mean happier fans. Happier fans means more revenue. There's more to it than just playing at your home court.

No way he's lying to the feds:


But it wasn’t until Donahgy was in federal custody that things really got interesting. In order to save himself some prison time, Donaghy began singing like a canary to the feds. NBA Commission David Stern would repeated berate the point that no one should believe Donaghy’s claims as he was simply saying things to potentially lower his sentence. Stern said that Donaghy had no credibility.

This brings up two important points. Number one: Donaghy was indeed trying to spend as little time in jail as possible. Who wouldn’t? But he could not, and even dare not, make up stories to tell the feds to do this. With the federal conviction rate running at about 95%, any such lies are going to be ferreted out and extra time added to the resultant sentence. A rational person does not lie when in federal custody.

What Donaghy was doing was not any different than what happens when mafia figures are arrested by the feds. Often, they rat out their former compatriots to save themselves. The FBI does not look down upon, or disbelieve, these stories. No, what they are told leads to further investigations and hopefully, further arrests. It’s standard operating procedure. So Donaghy’s behavior was quite typical for one involved in such a situation.

Point number two: Commissioner Stern knocking Donaghy’s credibility. This is laughable to say the least. It was the NBA that hired Donaghy despite numerous background checks. It was the NBA that let Donaghy officiate their highly sought after playoff games, even though they continually monitored his on- and off-the-court actions. It was the NBA that employed Donaghy for 13 years - and potentially more had the FBI not arrested him. It is the NBA that has an entire security division employed to monitor players, team officials, and referees in an attempt to stem any such criminal behavior. Yet the NBA did not catch Donaghy. In fact, his arrest came as a shock to the league. So who is lacking more credibility? Donaghy, or the league that employed – and would’ve continued to employ – him?

Before you answer that question, consider what Donaghy ultimately told the feds: That the NBA routinely instructed its referees to alter the outcomes of its games. Or, to put it more simply, the NBA is fixed.