The "auction" (for lack of a better word) is over. Look at what happened.

[the 'stache]

Ok, I just signed up for VCP for the first time ever. I'm looking to make a considerable (well, considerable for me) bid on a card, and I'm looking at the price history for the card-same back, exact same PSA grade. But the recent buy history is all over the place on VCP, and by a variance that seems way out of what one would expect. I've also checked Card Target as well as Ebay's history, and what I'm seeing appears to be accurate.

Here's the VCP price history for this particular card:



Notice who has the two sales that are way out of whack? I checked the images captured for these sales, and looked at the card for sale. This is now the third time PWCC has sold this card. The exact same card. In the last fourteen months.

This particular card is stunning for its grade. The back appears clean, and to be honest, I'm not sure why it's so low. I'm not wanting to out the auction, so I'm not going to post any pictures here. Some of you, hell most of you, will probably be able to find the card. But I'm willing to bid $1,000 for this. I really want it, and looking at the recent sales for this particular card and grade, you'd think I would have a good chance. But am I just wasting my time? I understand the thinking "don't try to buy from a small handful of sellers because of some of the funny numbers that we see." But my options are to let this card go by, a card which looks better than some of the 4s, and even 5s that I've seen, or put that bid in, and probably have my heart broken, only to see the card go up again for sale in a few months.

I'm in no rush to buy this card, or any other. But when one comes available and it pretty much exactly meets what I'm looking for in a card, I want to have a fair chance at getting it.

I'd love some input here from our experienced buyers and sellers. Thank you so much!

[bobbyw8469]

If the card really looks that nice for the grade, I don't think $1,000 will win it. It is also no coincidence that PWCC is the one selling it. He tends to get record prices. He also tends to get higher quality cards for the grade. $1,000 would be a record low for this card, since it sold for $1,400 and $1,200 respectively.

[the 'stache]

I guess I'll wait then. Makes no sense that 4s were selling in August and September for $1,000 and below, now a 3.5 is going to go for 20-25% more than a 4 did just 7 months ago.

I can probably find one just as nice for that amount or slightly less if I'm patient.

[Peter_Spaeth]

If you're going to bid in PWCC, be prepared to pay a world record price and to battle bidders with high numbers of retractions.

[the 'stache]

Ya, it's not worth it. There are other nice examples that won't make it into his hands. Sure would be nice if i could make a strong bid, and expect the seller to be professional.

[bobbyw8469]

All the professional sellers "other" than PWCC and Probstein get tired of seeing their similar items sell for peanuts while lesser quality examples from the BIG TWO sellers bring a whole lot more money. It is a vicious cycle, that unfortunately only benefits the big two sellers and no one else. As long as those two get the stupid high prices, they will be the ones getting the cards.

[I Only Smoke 4 the Cards]

The bidding activity by "0" looks suspicious but could be legit. I know I have made similar bids in the past in an effort to win below my target price.

[calvindog]

It's a PWCC auction. How many times do you have to be told and shown that rampant fraud exists in their auctions? This one included. If you win a card in his auction, assume you've been ripped off -- it's a good assumption.

[glchen]

Bill, I think the backs are different in the VCP you showed on the first page.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by calvindog

It's a PWCC auction. How many times do you have to be told and shown that rampant fraud exists in their auctions? This one included. If you win a card in his auction, assume you've been ripped off -- it's a good assumption.

Dummy me, I got drawn in by a really great looking card. I won't make the same mistake again.

Originally Posted by glchen

Bill, I think the backs are different in the VCP you showed on the first page.

I selected Piedmont and Sweet Cap for the backs, Gary. Did I do something wrong? This card is a Sweet Cap 150 back. It's not rare.

[wolf441]

[QUOTE=the 'stache;1272517]Dummy me, I got drawn in by a really great looking card. I won't make the same mistake again.


Sorry Bill,

That is my favorite card in the set, but I wouldn't dip my feet into that pool. Reminds me of the old Saturday Night Live skit for "Bad Idea Jeans". "I was going wear a condom, but then I thought, when am I ever going to get back to Haiti??!!"

[Peter_Spaeth]

LOL did you really think you had a chance to win it?

[glchen]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

...
I selected Piedmont and Sweet Cap for the backs, Gary. Did I do something wrong? This card is a Sweet Cap 150 back. It's not rare.

Bill, there may be nothing wrong at all. It is simply that when you compare items via VCP, it is better to compare apples to apples rather than apples to oranges. That is, just compare exact items to exact items so that there is no confusion. I am far, far from a T206 expert as I don't even collect the set. However, I believe some of the factory numbers for the backs are rarer for some of backs. It may have absolutely no relevance in this case. However, it's still better to show all of the information so that the reader can make their own judgments in this situation.

[bobbyw8469]

It's a PWCC auction. How many times do you have to be told and shown that rampant fraud exists in their auctions? This one included. If you win a card in his auction, assume you've been ripped off -- it's a good assumption.

While that is true for the most part, I personally, have consigned quite a few items with PWCC. I have also lost money on a lot of items as well.

[Iron Horse]

The shown example to me is a great looking card & should sell for $1200-1250 or that is what i would be willing to pay. Card is not altered because it has huge white borders.
I would have put a snipe at 1250 and if i won great if not then so be it.
I did end up winning a high end card yesterday which i feel sold for the correct price.
I always look to see who the other bidders are in PWCC auctions. If they do not have more then 2-3 retractions i consider them real. If i see others with tons of retractions i stay away, or just put a snipe for what i feel the card is worth to me.
Enjoy this great hobby

[GoudeyGum]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

This particular card is stunning for its grade.

Is it possible that this isn't true when the card is seen in person? Whenever I purchase a card from scans that "is stunning for its grade", when it arrives in the mail, I always say "Oh, well that explains it". In other words, maybe there is a wrinkle or something that isn't showing in the scans. This could also be a simple explanation this card's churn in the market. Just a thought. I have no pony in the pwcc debate. Even if the card is as clean as it is in the scan, I don't like the chunk missing from the upper left corner, and would not have paid a premium for the grade. You'll find another.

[CW]

...

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

LOL did you really think you had a chance to win it?

Well, based on where it was at with under an hour to go ($950), and knowing I'd decided to go up to $1,100, I thought I had at least a chance. When I saw what it was doing in the last minute before close, it flew right by my max, so it wasn't even worth trying.

Originally Posted by glchen

Bill, there may be nothing wrong at all. It is simply that when you compare items via VCP, it is better to compare apples to apples rather than apples to oranges. That is, just compare exact items to exact items so that there is no confusion. I am far, far from a T206 expert as I don't even collect the set. However, I believe some of the factory numbers for the backs are rarer for some of backs. It may have absolutely no relevance in this case. However, it's still better to show all of the information so that the reader can make their own judgments in this situation.

You're right, Gary, there are various Piedmont and Sweet Caporal Backs that are comparatively more rare than others. But I examined the card in question, which was Sweet Cap 150 subjects, factory 30. According to T206resource.com's back scarcity ranking, that was #34 out of 39 total backs. It's a very common back that would command virtually no premium.

Originally Posted by GoudeyGum

Is it possible that this isn't true when the card is seen in person? Whenever I purchase a card from scans that "is stunning for its grade", when it arrives in the mail, I always say "Oh, well that explains it". In other words, maybe there is a wrinkle or something that isn't showing in the scans. This could also be a simple explanation this card's churn in the market. Just a thought. I have no pony in the pwcc debate. Even if the card is as clean as it is in the scan, I don't like the chunk missing from the upper left corner, and would not have paid a premium for the grade. You'll find another.

I took the scan into Photoshop, and inverted it, then zoomed in to 300%. There are no visible wrinkles or creases. They would show up very easily as white lines. I then examined it without invesrion, changing the brightness and contrast both looking for any colorization that would hide flaws. I also played with the curves. I didn't find anything out of the norm.

As for the chunk missing in the upper left corner, I was ok with it. The corners, more than anything, lowered the overall grade, especially after my examination. But I was ok with that. The card, overall, presents beautifully. The centering is not perfect, but pretty darned close to it. And, there were no blemishes on the card's surface whatsoever. I thought it was a beautiful card, and even though it was PWCC auctioning it off, I considered going after it.

Originally Posted by CW

I had to bite my tongue when I saw this thread posted, as I had an aggressive snipe set for this card earlier today. I was the underbidder in one of the previous sales (the $1421.66 one).

For the record, I emailed Brent both in the first auction and also prior to this one to confirm that this card has absolutely no creases or wrinkles. That can be a key factor to me and my bidding strategy, as this card had everything going for it (other than the corner wear). So, Bill, you obviously have a good eye!

Needless to say, after reading this thread and hearing the opinions of several members for whom I have much respect, I also backed off. Granted, I still placed a bid, because it's a sweet card regardless of it being PWCC, but I reduced it enough to where I didn't even show up in the bidding history, and I would've been thrilled to win it at my snipe.

After seeing the feedback of the #1 and #2 bidders, I very glad I saw this thread and backed off.

Thank you, Chuck. I've worked hard to develop a pretty good eye. I know I'm never going to be able to afford some of the higher graded cards, so if I can find a card with a relatively minor flaw that doesn't subtract from the card's overall visual appeal, I'll go after it so long as it's financially prudent.

One thing though. In the future, if you or any other board member suspects that I'm about to bid on a card that you've already placed a bid on, please message me. I will not knowingly bid against my fellow board members. I've already dropped out on one card when this happened. God willing, I've got a lot of life ahead of me, so there will be other opportunities to get what I want.

This is all a learning experience for me. I know I'm better off looking for what I want here, or looking for other sellers on Ebay. Lesson learned.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by GoudeyGum

Is it possible that this isn't true when the card is seen in person? Whenever I purchase a card from scans that "is stunning for its grade", when it arrives in the mail, I always say "Oh, well that explains it". In other words, maybe there is a wrinkle or something that isn't showing in the scans. This could also be a simple explanation this card's churn in the market. Just a thought. I have no pony in the pwcc debate. Even if the card is as clean as it is in the scan, I don't like the chunk missing from the upper left corner, and would not have paid a premium for the grade. You'll find another.

All cards look better with those super bright scans.

[GregMitch34]

Well, I won a top-graded card tonight at PWCC for less than two-thirds what I expected to pay. I guess the shill bidders were on a bathroom break...or just too many cards closing about the same time to bid up all of them...

[1880nonsports]

FWIW I sold a nice SGC 50 late 2012 for 850.00. It was among the last couple of cards I sold - if not the last one (although it might have been the Matty........) that I parted with when bowing to the monster maybe 1/2 way through.
It's easy to suggest price-minipulation and much harder to prove it. The numbers reflected in past sales prices regardless of the venue one chooses to assess them are only as good as the factual information that goes into making them - these calculations are inherently flawed based on how the TPG's monitor the actual populations of each card (including crossing and resubmitting) and how actual sale prices are often obfuscated by BIN's, or not accurately reflecting private sales, best offers and other BS including shilling and dishonesty. A couple of companies have been mentioned here by name as at the very least not taking responsibility for monitoring their auctions and allowing for an over abundance of bidders with more retractions than what I imagine is the aggregate total of retractions by our total community in their lifetimes.
As evidenced from the 9 pages of history on card target - they're out there and the patient collector is rewarded more often then not.........

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by 1880nonsports

It's easy to suggest price-minipulation and much harder to prove it.

Why is it always the PWCC and Probstein auctions which have bidding histories littered with 0 and low feedback bidders, bidders with huge amounts of retractions and bidders who bid almost totally with just that seller's auctions? Why does that never happen in my auctions? Oh and why is it that PWCC auctions always have scans which are so bright that surely some darn setting must have been mistakenly made on their scanner?

[I Only Smoke 4 the Cards]

Re: baseball cards v. art (paintings)

To me baseball cards are art, the same as an oil painting. However, they are considered a lower form of art. I am surprised that so many people talked about the two as mutually exclusive.

[Runscott]

T206collector, you are making a huge unfounded assumption. I am here because I like discussing vintage baseball and it's the best place to do it.

Sent from my SM-G730V using Tapatalk

[Runscott]

I would not boycott net54 because I disagreed with a few of their business decisions, nor would I put you on ignore because you have opinions I disagree with. I will not; however, bid on stuff offered by shillers or those who allow it.

The rationalization that goes on here, to justify 'getting neat stuff' is truly mind-boggling.

Sent from my SM-G730V using Tapatalk

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Runscott

The rationalization that goes on here, to justify 'getting neat stuff' is truly mind-boggling.

Sent from my SM-G730V using Tapatalk

Truly. But not surprising.

[MattyC]

I find a "holier-than-thou" vibe as troubling as shilling

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I find a "holier-than-thou" vibe as troubling as shilling

Not as troubling as a self-satisfied, too cool for school vibe.

[nolemmings]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Not as troubling as a self-satisfied, too cool for school vibe.

Depends on who you ask.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I find a "holier-than-thou" vibe as troubling as shilling

Nice deflection.

[MattyC]

I have nothing to deflect.

[Runscott]

This is really a non-productive discussion. I get it that some of you feel that it's fine to bid on shilled auctions. I won't continue trying to convince you not to, but please do not try to convince the rest of us that supporting such auctions is something that we should do. It's reminding me of the kid in the candy store who tries to convince the other kids that it's okay to steal because you can get away with it and no one will notice. It's true for shilled auctions as well, so I can't argue with such logic.

You guys knock yourself out with this - I've got better things to do.

[I Only Smoke 4 the Cards]

Why can't we all just get along?