The "auction" (for lack of a better word) is over. Look at what happened.
 

Ok, I just signed up for VCP for the first time ever. I'm looking to make a considerable (well, considerable for me) bid on a card, and I'm looking at the price history for the card-same back, exact same PSA grade. But the recent buy history is all over the place on VCP, and by a variance that seems way out of what one would expect. I've also checked Card Target as well as Ebay's history, and what I'm seeing appears to be accurate.

Here's the VCP price history for this particular card:

http://imageshack.com/a/img843/436/m5r4.png

Notice who has the two sales that are way out of whack? I checked the images captured for these sales, and looked at the card for sale. This is now the third time PWCC has sold this card. The exact same card. In the last fourteen months.

This particular card is stunning for its grade. The back appears clean, and to be honest, I'm not sure why it's so low. I'm not wanting to out the auction, so I'm not going to post any pictures here. Some of you, hell most of you, will probably be able to find the card. But I'm willing to bid $1,000 for this. I really want it, and looking at the recent sales for this particular card and grade, you'd think I would have a good chance. But am I just wasting my time? I understand the thinking "don't try to buy from a small handful of sellers because of some of the funny numbers that we see." But my options are to let this card go by, a card which looks better than some of the 4s, and even 5s that I've seen, or put that bid in, and probably have my heart broken, only to see the card go up again for sale in a few months.

I'm in no rush to buy this card, or any other. But when one comes available and it pretty much exactly meets what I'm looking for in a card, I want to have a fair chance at getting it.

I'd love some input here from our experienced buyers and sellers. Thank you so much!

If the card really looks that nice for the grade, I don't think $1,000 will win it. It is also no coincidence that PWCC is the one selling it. He tends to get record prices. He also tends to get higher quality cards for the grade. $1,000 would be a record low for this card, since it sold for $1,400 and $1,200 respectively.

I guess I'll wait then. Makes no sense that 4s were selling in August and September for $1,000 and below, now a 3.5 is going to go for 20-25% more than a 4 did just 7 months ago.

I can probably find one just as nice for that amount or slightly less if I'm patient.

If you're going to bid in PWCC, be prepared to pay a world record price and to battle bidders with high numbers of retractions.

Ya, it's not worth it. There are other nice examples that won't make it into his hands. Sure would be nice if i could make a strong bid, and expect the seller to be professional.

All the professional sellers "other" than PWCC and Probstein get tired of seeing their similar items sell for peanuts while lesser quality examples from the BIG TWO sellers bring a whole lot more money. It is a vicious cycle, that unfortunately only benefits the big two sellers and no one else. As long as those two get the stupid high prices, they will be the ones getting the cards.

If you are willing to pay a certain price for it, why not just place the bid and take a chance? I've lucked out and gotten cards from PWWC for substantially less than I thought they were worth in the past.

Put in the price you want to pay and if you get it great, if not, then there will probably be another. I have won from both Probstein and PWCC for less than my max snipe. I wish all sellers would nix the a-holes with a million bid retractions but it doesn't happen. So bid what you want and don't worry about it. As we have all seen, VCP and guides are just that, guides. The best cards, regardless of holder, bring the best money. Don't expect a great looking (for the grade) card to go for a moderate price. I, and others, will gladly pay more for a better card in a lesser holder than vice-versa.

Yeah, when buying. When selling, on the other hand....

The Goudey Ruth I recently bought, and the Young you recently bought, will both bring above average prices when sold because they are above average (for their technical grade) cards. I think you are a bit pessimistic. :) On the other hand, when a super rare but less collected card goes for strong money, then when the selling time comes, there could be a huge discount from the buy price. (too thin of a market on the demand side)

This just in. :)

Place your bid!
 

What have you got to lose by bidding your limit? Place your bid and see what happens. I won a PWCC auction about a year ago on a high value, sought after hockey card and did not pay a ridiculous amount. In fact, the sell price was quite fair for that card.

I would stay far away. The same card selling for the 4th time by the seller in less than 2 years has red flags all over it. I would guess the card never really sold, won by the consignor (or one of their extra/friends accounts) then relisted hoping that someone looking at past auctions sales would feel that the market price has been set. These are the listings were VCP is well worth the cost.

I wouldn't bid either.

If the same exact card has come up in the same exact auction company at least twice before and each time it has sold for prices well above what similar cards have sold for in other venues then it would seem something funny might be going on.

Look, you have already outed the venue and how much you are willing to pay so it probably wont take much for a person interested in this card to find out what card you are talking about. If shenanigans ARE going on then all the seller (or venue) has to do is bid you up to your $1000 dollar max level.

Sure you get the card you want at the price you want but if the card had never really sold twice previously and the next highest price card sold last 9/13 for $863.50 then did you REALLY get a good deal?

David

Somewhere out there in cyberspace someone reading this just entered a $999 snipe! ;)

If this is a t206, are the backs the same including factory number when comparing the cards on vcp?

Interesting and concerning data. I would avoid bidding.

Ok, I'll bite..
 

Bill - when the auction is over, please let us know what the card is.

......and then we'll tell you what you should have done.:eek:

Chalk this one off to a bad idea!

Personally, I would be hesitant to bid. If it is the card I think it is, the current one is the same cert as the one that sold for $1255. However, I believe that is also nicer than the one that sold for $710 on ebay and $862 in Sterling (which are the same exact card). If I had to bid, I would think it should go between the Sterling price and the most recent ebay price.

DJ

Bill
 

Paraphrasing a bit but the simplicity of Leon's point (and others) has merit for many situations - one is never really sure about what minipulations to a card's pricing structure may have taken place outside one's view - bid or pay what you feel comfortable with and don't worry about the things you can't control. It seems a great deal of thought goes into each of your posts - mine not so much :-) Given that - I'm thinking you would be better off just passing altogether - I'm afraid you would always be questioning the purchase even if it was the card you wanted at a price you were comfortable with. As mentioned earlier in the thread - there are MANY red flags and many reasons to wait on another including the idea that it's reasonable to expect other cards in the appropriate grade and price will become available to you.
There's always an issue to grapple with as a collector - especially when money is a part of the equation. I try and take a measured approach that allows me to enjoy my hobby without adding too much stress to my life - after all I have a hobby to reduce my stress!
I'm sure in the long run you'll make a reasoned decision. Good luck whatever you decide............

The card was a T206 Walter Johnson portrait PSA 3.5.

An hour before close, the card sat at $950.00, which is pretty much where I expected it to be at pre PWCC BS. Then a bidder with 44 feedback bumps it to $1,109.00.

Then look what happened to the bids. Suspicious, that's an understatement.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/1909-11-T206...-/351058857704

http://imageshack.com/a/img838/9441/bao3.png

It's possible that one of the bidders you're seeing here after the $950.00 price is reached is legit, but the rest? Highly doubtful.

With less than a minute left before auction close, the price stood at $1,206.00. Then two bids from a buyer with a 0 feedback score, and a bid from a buyer with 11 feedback bump it $169 in the last 60 seconds to a closing price of $1,375.00.

Looks like PWCC will be selling this one again. But there's certainly nothing shady going on here /wink wink.

The bidding activity by "0" looks suspicious but could be legit. I know I have made similar bids in the past in an effort to win below my target price.

It's a PWCC auction. How many times do you have to be told and shown that rampant fraud exists in their auctions? This one included. If you win a card in his auction, assume you've been ripped off -- it's a good assumption.

Bill, I think the backs are different in the VCP you showed on the first page.

Dummy me, I got drawn in by a really great looking card. I won't make the same mistake again.

I selected Piedmont and Sweet Cap for the backs, Gary. Did I do something wrong? This card is a Sweet Cap 150 back. It's not rare.

[QUOTE=the 'stache;1272517]Dummy me, I got drawn in by a really great looking card. I won't make the same mistake again.


Sorry Bill,

That is my favorite card in the set, but I wouldn't dip my feet into that pool. Reminds me of the old Saturday Night Live skit for "Bad Idea Jeans". "I was going wear a condom, but then I thought, when am I ever going to get back to Haiti??!!"

LOL did you really think you had a chance to win it? :D

Bill, there may be nothing wrong at all. It is simply that when you compare items via VCP, it is better to compare apples to apples rather than apples to oranges. That is, just compare exact items to exact items so that there is no confusion. I am far, far from a T206 expert as I don't even collect the set. However, I believe some of the factory numbers for the backs are rarer for some of backs. It may have absolutely no relevance in this case. However, it's still better to show all of the information so that the reader can make their own judgments in this situation.

While that is true for the most part, I personally, have consigned quite a few items with PWCC. I have also lost money on a lot of items as well.

+1. If you lay down with dogs don't whine about the fleas.

Is it possible that this isn't true when the card is seen in person? Whenever I purchase a card from scans that "is stunning for its grade", when it arrives in the mail, I always say "Oh, well that explains it". In other words, maybe there is a wrinkle or something that isn't showing in the scans. This could also be a simple explanation this card's churn in the market. Just a thought. I have no pony in the pwcc debate. Even if the card is as clean as it is in the scan, I don't like the chunk missing from the upper left corner, and would not have paid a premium for the grade. You'll find another.

...

...

All cards look better with those super bright scans.

Well, I won a top-graded card tonight at PWCC for less than two-thirds what I expected to pay. I guess the shill bidders were on a bathroom break...or just too many cards closing about the same time to bid up all of them...

always loved the card
 

FWIW I sold a nice SGC 50 late 2012 for 850.00. It was among the last couple of cards I sold - if not the last one (although it might have been the Matty........) that I parted with when bowing to the monster maybe 1/2 way through.
It's easy to suggest price-minipulation and much harder to prove it. The numbers reflected in past sales prices regardless of the venue one chooses to assess them are only as good as the factual information that goes into making them - these calculations are inherently flawed based on how the TPG's monitor the actual populations of each card (including crossing and resubmitting) and how actual sale prices are often obfuscated by BIN's, or not accurately reflecting private sales, best offers and other BS including shilling and dishonesty. A couple of companies have been mentioned here by name as at the very least not taking responsibility for monitoring their auctions and allowing for an over abundance of bidders with more retractions than what I imagine is the aggregate total of retractions by our total community in their lifetimes.
As evidenced from the 9 pages of history on card target - they're out there and the patient collector is rewarded more often then not.........

Well, based on where it was at with under an hour to go ($950), and knowing I'd decided to go up to $1,100, I thought I had at least a chance. When I saw what it was doing in the last minute before close, it flew right by my max, so it wasn't even worth trying.

You're right, Gary, there are various Piedmont and Sweet Caporal Backs that are comparatively more rare than others. But I examined the card in question, which was Sweet Cap 150 subjects, factory 30. According to T206resource.com's back scarcity ranking, that was #34 out of 39 total backs. It's a very common back that would command virtually no premium.

I took the scan into Photoshop, and inverted it, then zoomed in to 300%. There are no visible wrinkles or creases. They would show up very easily as white lines. I then examined it without invesrion, changing the brightness and contrast both looking for any colorization that would hide flaws. I also played with the curves. I didn't find anything out of the norm.

As for the chunk missing in the upper left corner, I was ok with it. The corners, more than anything, lowered the overall grade, especially after my examination. But I was ok with that. The card, overall, presents beautifully. The centering is not perfect, but pretty darned close to it. And, there were no blemishes on the card's surface whatsoever. I thought it was a beautiful card, and even though it was PWCC auctioning it off, I considered going after it.

Thank you, Chuck. I've worked hard to develop a pretty good eye. I know I'm never going to be able to afford some of the higher graded cards, so if I can find a card with a relatively minor flaw that doesn't subtract from the card's overall visual appeal, I'll go after it so long as it's financially prudent.

One thing though. In the future, if you or any other board member suspects that I'm about to bid on a card that you've already placed a bid on, please message me. I will not knowingly bid against my fellow board members. I've already dropped out on one card when this happened. God willing, I've got a lot of life ahead of me, so there will be other opportunities to get what I want. :)

This is all a learning experience for me. I know I'm better off looking for what I want here, or looking for other sellers on Ebay. Lesson learned.

Why is it always the PWCC and Probstein auctions which have bidding histories littered with 0 and low feedback bidders, bidders with huge amounts of retractions and bidders who bid almost totally with just that seller's auctions? Why does that never happen in my auctions? Oh and why is it that PWCC auctions always have scans which are so bright that surely some darn setting must have been mistakenly made on their scanner?

I know both probstein and PWCC have alot of bid retractions. But with Probstein I am actually able to win a few things at good prices, I cannot say the same for PWCC.

I'm sure it's just a coincidence!

How cool would it be to hit the trifecta -- an "improved" card, made to look even better by an overly-bright scan, shilled up to a world record price?

I blame society

Why are we blaming PWCC? To me, it looks like a bidder who previously was banned by Brent made a quick account and shilled.. How is this Brent's fault?

On a side note I sold a card that went for $40 and has a VCP around $120 last night. There are a lot of good deals through PWCC.... if you can find auctions that aren't shilled.

+1....I too, gave some cards away thru PWCC last night. There are deals to be had...you just have to know what you are looking for.

Doesn't ebay have a feature that allows sellers to block bidders with very low feedback?

It's a shame ebay doesn't have a feature to block crooked sellers.

Yes, I blame the scanner. Because after all, an honest guy like Brent whose auctions are littered with fraud would never have misleading scans as well -- because that might suggest he's dishonest.

The scans are definitely brighter and bolder and thus not representative of the card in hand. I think anyone bidding on these must take this into consideration. The scans are so cartoonish sometimes and thus so obvious, I can't fathom why PWCC hasn't gone to normal scans. I guess not as obvious to all.

There's no denying that some PWCC auctions are shilled-- but there's also no denying that some aren't shilled. This leads me to parse the issues of the scans and the shilling. I would bet the shilling is being done by the owners of the cards themselves, as opposed to Brent commanding a legion of guys with shill accounts, masterminding which auctions to hit and which to leave alone, like some Lex Luthor super villain.

Now whether it is incumbent or not on an entity like PWCC to vet each individual auction for its duration, canceling suspected shill bids, that is an entirely separate conversation of course. I'd think hiring one dedicated person by the hour to man an email "hotline" and cancel reported shill bids would not be so expensive, and do wonders for reputation, engendering goodwill and thus business.