Super Bowl - in-depth analysis

[Runscott]

Here in Seattle, we've been analyzing the hell out of the upcoming super bowl. I hate to waste all that thinking, so here are my thoughts. What are yours?

I think Manning starts the game running and throwing 10-15 yard timing plays - non-Welker receivers in the slot. Seattle will be obvious: heavy on the line to contain the run-game and make Manning throw fast. Seattle also concentrates on holding up the receivers at the line. If the refs let them play, and Manning isn't perfect, Seattle edges them out. Unless Manning is completely flat, Denver still gets 5 scores (23 or 27 points).

Seattle needs a couple of game-changing plays (Harvin or Tate TD return, pick 6) because their offense never gets rolling. They get it, but Manning still gets one last chance, needing a touchdown and coming up short on the final drive.

I'm still not betting any money on this game.

Edited to add: If Lynch gets rolling, it's a blow-out.

[steve B]

That sounds about right.

The Denver lines looked great against the Patriots. Both offense and defense.
Manning wasn't under any real pressure all game, and there were a few big plays where the Denver line got right in on Brady.

If they do the same sort of thing against Seattle it will be a tough game to win.

I didn't realize until this weeks SI that Denver had lost almost as many starters as New England.

Steve B

[Runscott]

I think you are right - it's all about how both lines perform for each team. When you have two smart quarterbacks who probably won't make any stupid throws, it's all about the lines allowing/stopping them from doing what they need to do. I think Seattle can stop the running game and put pressure on the Manning, both at the same time. I think Denver has to pick Lynch or Wilson, but can't negate both. And even if they stop one of them, you know Carroll's going to run the ball the entire game, so at some point things have to open up - you just have to keep Manning off the field so that your D stays fresh.

[steve B]

You might know this already - What Patriots coach had the best winning percentage before Bellichick?

Steve B

[itjclarke]

I haven't watched much of the Broncos this year. I think they probably do have a very good O-line, but I also think Peyton makes all his O-lines look good because he always gets rid of the ball on time... and additionally is so good at spotting a blitz pre-snap and adjusting his protections, routes, etc. That said, Seattle (like the Niners) doesn't blitz that much, usually relying on good pressure from their front four, so we may not see many of those "Peyton burns the blitz" chances. I think a huge key will be how Seattle DBs d-up on Denver's receivers. Those DBs are absolute beasts! If they can take away some of the quick throws by holding guys up at the line, knocking them off routes, it could throw the old man out of rhythm, and Seattle's front four will "get pressure" by default (not that they won't be already). One of the most impressive guys I've seen is that Kam Chancellor. As SS he absolutely takes any tight end out of the game, and is a pure beast in run support. The hit he put on Vernon Davis (a total physcical specimen in his own right) is the nastiest I've ever seen in person... and he's also the guy (all 240 lb) that caught Kaep from behind on his long run!! He may be my favorite Seahawk (when is he a free agent?????)... and even as a Niner fan, I really like and respect many of their players (Marshawn like a Frank Gore- the true football player, Russell Wilson- the perfect leader, Baldwin & Kearse- they just make plays, even Sherman- amazing athleticism and ball skills and a really smart guys who's probably more than quadrupled his current salary through endorsement by acting like a total a-hole... he will become the "I'm not a role model" of this generation).

Peyton also throws a lot of lofty wobblers. I think arm strength is one of the most overrated things in scouting QBs, and when you throw early/on time, you can get away with floaters... but in this case- with possible bad weather, and DBs that ALWAYS seem to be right there to contest the throw, throwing tight lasers is a premium.

After watching the Niners lose again in Seattle, I thought there was no way Seattle loses this Sunday. As the days have gone by though, I've been more and more of the mind that Peyton will find a way to get something done. I still think Seattle wins, but in my mind the gap is smaller than it was a week ago. It's gonna be a great game.

(please pardon my ramble... I just love me some football!)

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by itjclarke

As the days have gone by though, I've been more and more of the mind that Peyton will find a way to get something done. I still think Seattle wins, but in my mind the gap is smaller than it was a week ago. It's gonna be a great game.

(please pardon my ramble... I just love me some football!)

Peyton is certainly the sentimental favorite, but I'm not sure why so many people are thinking that he'll "find a way to get something done". He hasn't really shown that so much in the past. He's great, but I don't think he has enough personal magic to win this one.

I love me some football also - surprised there is so little interest in the Super Bowl among vintage card collectors. I'm thinking 'sports fan' and 'card collector' aren't as closely associated as I thought they were, not that there's anything wrong with that.

Still not sure if I care who wins the game, but it should be a heckuva game.

[itjclarke]

Originally Posted by drmondobueno

Thought the game was going to be close. Manning showed zero arm strength, I mean zero. There appeared to be no wind, so no excuses there. Thought at first I was just reading into all the ducks comments, but after watching Wilson zipping fastballs, I saw a quarterback in orange who threw the ball with no authority. None. You want to make a really good defensive team look even better? Throw nothing but short and slot passes with no velocity, let the backs shorten the field even further. Manning looked really weak. As far as defensive pressure, it was there, but was he knocked down, sacked? Balls were deflected, etc., but he only threw the ball deep, what, twice? A D-back dream.

Scoreboard, Seattle.

Originally Posted by itjclarke

... I think a huge key will be how Seattle DBs d-up on Denver's receivers. Those DBs are absolute beasts! If they can take away some of the quick throws by holding guys up at the line, knocking them off routes, it could throw the old man out of rhythm, and Seattle's front four will "get pressure" by default (not that they won't be already). One of the most impressive guys I've seen is that Kam Chancellor. As SS he absolutely takes any tight end out of the game, and is a pure beast in run support...

Peyton also throws a lot of lofty wobblers. I think arm strength is one of the most overrated things in scouting QBs, and when you throw early/on time, you can get away with floaters... but in this case- with possible bad weather, and DBs that ALWAYS seem to be right there to contest the throw, throwing tight lasers is a premium.

I'm not usually one to quote myself, but Peyton's total lack of velocity absolutely comes into play when you're playing a ball hawking secondary that is always close to the receiver. Kaepernick throws the ball harder possibly than any QB ever clocked and his completions v the Seahawks need that juice. When Marino threw for 5000, he was constantly pushing the ball down field to the Marks Bros... Peyton's 5000 probably involved about half that or less in actual yardage thrown... and that stuff doesn't work to well when you face a secondary that doesn't miss tackles.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by steve B

You might know this already - What Patriots coach had the best winning percentage before Bellichick?

Steve B

Wow, no takers on that question?

It's Pete Carroll.

[itjclarke]

Didn't see that but think I'd have gotten it eventually. He was fired with a winning record.

As a Pats fan, I hope you appreciate No Cal's contribution to your squad.. Julian Edelman (possibly my favorite current NFLer) graduated from my alma mater Woodside (RWC, CA)... and one Tom Brady was a mid-nineties legend, and former opponent of mine (known as Tommy Brady) from San Mateo.

While on topic, that little baddass Pedroia is also a No Cal-er

Originally Posted by steve B

Wow, no takers on that question?

It's Pete Carroll.

Are you sure? I can think of three Patriots coaches with more than Carroll's 26 wins; Bill Parcells, Raymond Berry (took them to the '84 SB), and Chuck Fairbanks (thought he coached those Plunkett/Grogan-led teams in 70's). Fairbanks might have been with the BOSTON Patriots, I don't know.

[t206trader]

I just don't see the hawks offense being able to move the ball very effectively in this game. Even if their defense gets stops I'm not seeing the good field position that they have been able to get off other teams after easy three and outs (which will not happen in this game). If Denver jumps out by a score or two early than Seattle will probably start ditching the run. Seattle has played mediocre on the road and I just don't see them pulling this one off. Denver 34 Seattle 24

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by t206trader

I just don't see the hawks offense being able to move the ball very effectively in this game. Even if their defense gets stops I'm not seeing the good field position that they have been able to get off other teams after easy three and outs (which will not happen in this game). If Denver jumps out by a score or two early than Seattle will probably start ditching the run. Seattle has played mediocre on the road and I just don't see them pulling this one off. Denver 34 Seattle 24

Seattle hasn't moved the ball effectively in a long time, but they did score 23 in each of their last two games, against two very good defenses, and Wilson did not have a particularly good day either time. Also, S.F. got out to a 10-0 start, and Carroll kept after them with the run until he wore them down. I don't think Wilson passes any more than he usually does.

Agreed about Seattle on the road - they rely on their fans a lot.

[yanks12025]

The only in depth analysis needed is.... Denver will win! After the game we can watch Richard Sherman making a bigger joke then he did two weeks ago.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by yanks12025

The only in depth analysis needed is.... Denver will win! After the game we can watch Richard Sherman making a bigger joke then he did two weeks ago.

He's already done that with endorsements that resulted from the Andrews interview and the ones that followed it. Are you referring to additional endorsements, and possibly the game MVP award?

[freakhappy]

Originally Posted by Runscott

He's already done that with endorsements that resulted from the Andrews interview and the ones that followed it. Are you referring to additional endorsements, and possibly the game MVP award?

Scott, don't let Brock distract you. Sherman is one of the best defenders in the game and you know that, but he was a total d-bag during his last game. By announcing the Crabtree is mediocre, he proclaimed that he shutdown a mediocre receiver...that's not saying much. Anyway, we know how great both of these teams are and what a good game this should be. Sherman will have his hands full with D. Thomas? and it won't be so easy this time around. That being said, this game could go in a variety of ways and I think the biggest factor is how Denver's D does against Seattle's O. Let's be honest, Lynch is one of the best and he usually always gets his, but I think it will be on Wilson and whether or not he can make a few clutch throws and scramble a bit...this is what makes them so tough to defend. Wilson isn't a great QB, but he's a leader and makes plays when he needs to...let's see how he does on the big stage.

Seattle's D ended up being the best in the league, but Andrew Luck absolutely thrashed them earlier in the year, so we know they can be beat...we'll see though.

I won't be surprised one way or the other, but I'm a Manning fan and more than anything will be rooting for him. If Seattle plays the way they know how, they will be a monster to beat.

[DeanH3]

Keep in mind. Seattle has faced a top 6 defense 5 out of their last 7 games. SF twice, N.O. twice and Ariz. The other 2 games were against Rams and Giants. Those are not horrible defenses by any means. Denver's D is nowhere near the same league as the Niners or Ariz. Teams Seattle has played against 5 times this year. I'm hoping Seattle's offense can get going against Denver's D.

[DeanH3]

Originally Posted by t206trader

I just don't see the hawks offense being able to move the ball very effectively in this game. Even if their defense gets stops I'm not seeing the good field position that they have been able to get off other teams after easy three and outs (which will not happen in this game). If Denver jumps out by a score or two early than Seattle will probably start ditching the run. Seattle has played mediocre on the road and I just don't see them pulling this one off. Denver 34 Seattle 24

Seattle was 6-2 on the road this year. Not too shabby. I believe the Bronco's were also 6-2 on the road.

[freakhappy]

Listen up all NFL teams, I have an announcement:

Run trick plays and you will have a great chance to win. I'm so glad this information was granted to us...now every team has a REAL chance to win...thanks ctown


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by Runscott

Seattle needs a couple of game-changing plays (Harvin or Tate TD return, pick 6) because their offense never gets rolling. They get it, but Manning still gets one last chance, needing a touchdown and coming up short on the final drive.

Damn, I was wrong - Seattle got both and needed neither.

[freakhappy]

Congrats to the Seahawks and their fans! Very convincing victory and well deserved all the way around. This team will/should compete for years to come.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk