Ohtani CARDS are Mostly UNDERVALUED

[BioCRN]

Whether he's the best or not, if Ohtani isn't in your top-5 hitters in all of baseball anywhere on the planet I don't know what to say.

MVP caliber hitter. CY caliber pitcher. Unless one wants to pick on Ohtani's ability to pitch 200-ish IP as a pitcher, both stand strong.

Guy is about to hit 40+ homers for the 3rd time in 4 years. He's going to join the 40-40 club. He's recovering from Tommy John surgery while doing it. wtf...

3.01 ERA, 1.08 WHIP over 481.2ip

It's easy to ignore his pitching based on injury, but based on results when healthy it isn't.

His biggest knock is he doesn't play the field and if he did, it would most likely be below average.

Long story short...I've never seen anyone like him in my lifetime with skills this elevated and I'm not sure anyone else here has, either.

He's not a rare player, he's not a generational player, he's only being compared to Ruth because who else are you going to compare a guy with his skill set to that played in 1900+? He's a very unique player.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by packs

As a complete player sure but my comment was in reference to who the best hitter in baseball is. I believe it is Judge.

Soto put up a 200 OPS+ in 2020 during a short season. I think you have to go all the way back to Frank Thomas in 1994 to find the last 200 OPS+ season and that was still a strike shortened season.

I am purposely excluding Bonds / McGwire / Sosa for reasons I think are clear.

Bagwell too. Bagwell was 213, Thomas was 212. Soto was 217. The last time someone was that good was Ted Williams (233) and Mickey Mantle (221) in 1957.

[packs]

Ah, I didn't see Bagwell had also done it in the 1994 strike season.

I think that demonstrates just how good Judge is. This will be his second 200 OPS+ season.

[insidethewrapper]

Marcell Ozuna may win the NL Triple Crown this year and nobody seems to care. Certain players are always hyped the most by the press.

[packs]

True. Nobody really batted an eye last year when Yandy Diaz hit 330 and led the AL either.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by insidethewrapper

Marcell Ozuna may win the NL Triple Crown this year and nobody seems to care. Certain players are always hyped the most by the press.

Ozuna is fantastic. He’s not Ohtani. WAR has Ohtani 1, 2, and then 1 in all of MLB the past three years. Fine for someone to think Judge is better but if anyone argues Ohtani has not been amazing they are treading into odd territory.

[gunboat82]

Originally Posted by insidethewrapper

Marcell Ozuna may win the NL Triple Crown this year and nobody seems to care. Certain players are always hyped the most by the press.

A few factors at play here:

1) Ozuna had just just two seasons with an OPS above .800 in his 20s, and one was during the short 2020 season.

2) He's not a good fielder, so all of his value comes from his bat.

3) He was terrible in 2021 and 2022. If this represents a breakout year, it will come at age 33.

Collectors just don't get excited about guys like that. Baseball Reference compares Ozuna's career stats to the likes of Carl Everett, Geoff Jenkins, Jason Bay, Vernon Wells, and Frank Thomas (no, not that Frank Thomas... the other one).

[NYYFan63]

Originally Posted by BillyCoxDodgers3B

The hype machine needed to be turned way down for this guy. You just don't compare someone to Babe Ruth, plain and simple. The odds of living up to such expectations are practically nil. For me personally, all the hype turned me off from caring, but I don't follow modern baseball to begin with.

If the media had toned it down a few notches, far more people would be impressed by him. His stats are pretty nice. .667 PCT over 5 seasons? At this point, he's won exactly twice as many games as he's lost. When Babe Ruth is the bar you're expected to measure up to, you're basically left to twist in the wind if you can't prove you can walk on water.

I agree 100%! The guy has had a couple good years and all of a sudden he is being compared to Babe Ruth? Cmon! And he is 30 years old and a 41 bWar. He wont catch Ruth.

[BigfootIsReal]

Originally Posted by gunboat82

A few factors at play here:

1) Ozuna had just just two seasons with an OPS above .800 in his 20s, and one was during the short 2020 season.

2) He's not a good fielder, so all of his value comes from his bat.

3) He was terrible in 2021 and 2022. If this represents a breakout year, it will come at age 33.

Collectors just don't get excited about guys like that. Baseball Reference compares Ozuna's career stats to the likes of Carl Everett, Geoff Jenkins, Jason Bay, Vernon Wells, and Frank Thomas (no, not that Frank Thomas... the other one).

Don't forget Chuck Knoblauch and Danny Heep

[sbfinley]

Originally Posted by jakebeckleyoldeagleeye

Bobby Witt Jr, Aaron Judge and Soto could show him what they use gloves for. He's just a glorified DH and the MLB poster boy that the MLB Network shoeshine boys promote.

Grantland Rice over here waxing poetically on the guy that’a a two time MVP, on pace for the first 50/50 season in MLB history, made 80 starts over the previous three seasons with a sub 3.00 era, and is recovering from a torn UCL during said first 50/50 season. Truly marvelous.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by sbfinley

Grantland Rice over here waxing poetically on the guy that’a a two time MVP, on pace for the first 50/50 season in MLB history, made 80 starts over the previous three seasons with a sub 3.00 era, and is recovering from a torn UCL during said first 50/50 season. Truly marvelous.

It’s really something to behold. “But he doesn’t field.” I don’t know - just maybe the team that saw fit to make him the highest paid player of all time due to his pretty unprecedented hitting and pitching abilities decided to take advantage of the DH to keep him doing those things better than anyone else. Not a dumb move.

[Exhibitman]

Both Judge and Ohtani are simply marvelous this year but as Sparky Anderson said after the 1976 WS when someone compared Thurman Munson to Johnny Bench:

"Munson is an outstanding player and he would hit.300 in the National League, but don’t ever embarrass anybody by comparing him to Johnny Bench."

Same for Ruth; don't embarrass Judge and Ohtani by comparing them to Ruth. Judge doesn't compare because he can't pitch. Ohtani can pitch but he's 38-19 with a 3.01 ERA and a lifetime batting average of .277 with 2900 ABs. OPS+ .989. Ruth went 94-46 with a 2.28 ERA, hit .342 and over 8900+ ABs, has a career OPS+ of 1.164. He had ten years with WAR above 10; Ohtani has had zero (best was 9.9). Judge and Ohtani are fantastic and great drawing cards and guys too (as far as we know) but comparing them to Ruth just isn't fair to them.

Oh, and a vintage card:

[Carter08]

I don’t know too many people, if anyone, arguing that Ohtani is better than Ruth. I think many people would say he’s the best pitching and hitting phenom to play the game since Ruth. Hardly seems like a comparison that should offend even the staunchest supporter of pre-segregation baseball.

[SyrNy1960]

Originally Posted by Carter08

I think many people would say he’s the best pitching and hitting phenom to play the game since Ruth.

Well said!

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

I feel like we could have had the opportunity to see several more over the last century, but when do any kids get trained for such a future? It's just not done, is it? It's one or the other.

[packs]

I don't think two way players are that rare as you're developing in middle school and high school. I knew lots of kids who pitched once a week and played the field the rest of it. It's the combination of being major league caliber at both skills that weeds them out. If you have a real future as a hitter, you might give up your fledging career as a mediocre pitcher.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Originally Posted by NYYFan63

I agree 100%! The guy has had a couple good years and all of a sudden he is being compared to Babe Ruth? Cmon! And he is 30 years old and a 41 bWar. He won't catch Ruth.

He was being compared to Ruth before ever crossing the ocean. The first time I heard the comparison, I don't know if my groan was louder than my eye roll. All I could think of was Matsuzaka...just in the sense of a ridiculously highly-touted prospect who cost some team way too much money and failed miserably. I don't wish misfortune on any prospect, but it always feels like the greater the hype, the greater the flop. To hear this kid being compared to Babe Ruth...I just felt bad.

But, much to his credit, he's done well! For all the reasons we've discussed, he will never and could never be Babe Ruth and it was wrong of the media to make that comparison, both for Ohtani's sake and the sake of it being an impossibe, incorrect comparison.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

I don't think two way players are that rare as you're developing in middle school and high school. I knew lots of kids who pitched once a week and played the field the rest of it. It's the combination of being major league caliber at both skills that weeds them out. If you have a real future as a hitter, you might give up your fledging career as a mediocre pitcher.

Right. I think it's pretty common up through high school for a star pitcher to also be the team's best hitter, being the best athlete. Not much incentive to pursue both beyond that as it's likely a career shortening move and the odds of being better than average at both at that level must be astonishingly low.

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Originally Posted by packs

I don't think two way players are that rare as you're developing in middle school and high school. I knew lots of kids who pitched once a week and played the field the rest of it. It's the combination of being major league caliber at both skills that weeds them out. If you have a real future as a hitter, you might give up your fledging career as a mediocre pitcher.

Yes, I'd agree, but I also wonder if there are more potential two-way kids out there, but their coach feels it a better idea for them to stick to their forte? For example, why risk injury to one part of the body as a pitcher when the kid is fine in the field and at the plate? Or vice versa. Because two-way players have classically not been nurtured beyond their younger days, the trend continues? Just some honest thoughts about the subject.

Also, with Ohtani now here, you know the number of youngsters wanting to emulate him has just exploded. Perhaps there may be a coach or three out there more willing to give it a shot. I'm guessing so.

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by BillyCoxDodgers3B

I feel like we could have had the opportunity to see several more over the last century, but when do any kids get trained for such a future? It's just not done, is it? It's one or the other.

There are a ton of guys who went failed-pitcher to hitter or failed-hitter to pitcher.

I remember seeing Josh Hamilton hit mid-90s in highschool off the mound. If he couldn't hit he would have probably been a highly drafted pitcher.

Recently, Bryce Eldridge (SF, 2023) could have been a pitcher or hitter, SF chose hitter. Nolan McLean (NYM, 2023) is a 2-way player, but his hitting is worse than his pitching and will probably eventually just be a pitcher.

More players are getting the chance to be 2-way, but none are proving themselves past the low minors or even pre-assigned FLA/ARZ camps.

[drcy]

Just remember that Bob Uecker was once thought to be the next Babe Ruth.

[JollyElm]

Anyone who legally changes their name could be the next Babe Ruth. (Yes, I understand this adds nothing to the thread.)

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

Anyone who legally changes their name could be the next Babe Ruth. (Yes, I understand this adds nothing to the thread.)

Technically correct is the best kind of correct.

[raulus]

Getting back to the original premise, can the OP tell us a bit more about which Ohtani cards are undervalued, and why?

I suspect that for a lot of his issues, there is abundant supply. The exception being any with manufactured rarity.

So if there are 10 million of any given issue, what makes them undervalued?

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by BillyCoxDodgers3B

He was being compared to Ruth before ever crossing the ocean. The first time I heard the comparison, I don't know if my groan was louder than my eye roll. All I could think of was Matsuzaka...just in the sense of a ridiculously highly-touted prospect who cost some team way too much money and failed miserably. I don't wish misfortune on any prospect, but it always feels like the greater the hype, the greater the flop. To hear this kid being compared to Babe Ruth...I just felt bad.

But, much to his credit, he's done well! For all the reasons we've discussed, he will never and could never be Babe Ruth and it was wrong of the media to make that comparison, both for Ohtani's sake and the sake of it being an impossibe, incorrect comparison.

He has done well is a bit of an understatement. He has done better than everyone or just about every one else in the league for 4 years might be more accurate.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by raulus

It was a reference to their potential similarities off the field.

A silly comparison.

Ippei Mizuhara is being sentenced to a possible 33 years in October. He has been consistently grilled by the FBI and this has been looked at six ways to Sunday. He had every opportunity on earth to give any information that would ease his charges and gets nothing for a large quantity of his life gone. He plead likely to avoid a longer sentence when he was dead to rights guilty.

Ohtani is guilty of being ignorant about his finances but dragging a conspiracy theory forever without a shred of evidence is tinfoil hat territory.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by JustinD

A silly comparison.

Ippei Mizuhara is being sentenced to a possible 33 years in October. He has been consistently grilled by the FBI and this has been looked at six ways to Sunday. He had every opportunity on earth to give any information that would ease his charges and gets nothing for a large quantity of his life gone. He plead likely to avoid a longer sentence when he was dead to rights guilty.

Ohtani is guilty of being ignorant about his finances but dragging a conspiracy theory forever without a shred of evidence is tinfoil hat territory.

Guilty as charged. Allow me to don my headgear.

[JollyElm]

Fixed it for you...

tinfoilhatgiantslogo.jpg

[1952boyntoncollector]

Does he sign his name in japaneese as well..

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector

Does he sign his name in japaneese as well..

He can sign in at least two languages, one more than many people.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Carter08

He can sign in at least two languages, one more than many people.

For any of us with foreign names, this isn’t much of a feat. I’d argue that my signature works in a dozen or so different languages. Now if you want to talk about using different writing systems, then that’s a bit more exciting.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by raulus

For any of us with foreign names, this isn’t much of a feat. I’d argue that my signature works in a dozen or so different languages. Now if you want to talk about using different writing systems, then that’s a bit more exciting.

Exactly. His cursive sig works in many languages. His Japanese writing is a different system.

[Yoda]

Originally Posted by BillyCoxDodgers3B

Such a disgusting autograph. With his star power, I wish he'd put a little bit into his own brand by at least adding some recognizable style to it.

Jeter's autograph is not up my alley, either, but you can at least spot it from a mile away. Even Trout's "autograph" is recognizable to so many (can't even be bothered to lift the Sharpie up between a whopping two-lettered autograph). Everyone is so concerned about their "brand". Definitely an overused, nausea-inducing term, but a stylistic, if not even legible autograph should be a part of that. That thing shown above is just a scrawl that an angry toddler could convincingly emulate without even meaning to.

I couldn't agree more. The hen scratching that so many stars call their autograph demonstrates their pumped up egos. Compare the Otani sample to, say, Charlie Gehringer.

[seanofjapan]

Originally Posted by BillyCoxDodgers3B

Such a disgusting autograph. With his star power, I wish he'd put a little bit into his own brand by at least adding some recognizable style to it.

Jeter's autograph is not up my alley, either, but you can at least spot it from a mile away. Even Trout's "autograph" is recognizable to so many (can't even be bothered to lift the Sharpie up between a whopping two-lettered autograph). Everyone is so concerned about their "brand". Definitely an overused, nausea-inducing term, but a stylistic, if not even legible autograph should be a part of that. That thing shown above is just a scrawl that an angry toddler could convincingly emulate without even meaning to.

Agreed. In Ohtani’s case his autograph in Japanese is way more legible and he actually writes out each character. It was only when he started doing his autograph in English that it became a mess, probably because he was just copying the sloppy way everyone else was doing it.

Sadaharu Oh’s approach was way different, his autograph in English is easier to read than his Japanese one. Times have changed.

[BioCRN]

Originally Posted by Yoda

I couldn't agree more. The hen scratching that so many stars call their autograph demonstrates their pumped up egos. Compare the Otani sample to, say, Charlie Gehringer.

It would be one thing if they lived in an era where they're at the park signing and occasionally at shows/events, but when you're signing 1000s of cards on contract many times a year we're no longer in an era where your autograph can expected be a work of art.

Andre Dawson's autograph might look a lot different if at age 20 he signed a few thousand cards a year for many different card companies.

In a way, the card and memorabilia industry ruined autographs.

Not baseball, but here's John Cena signing some autographs..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_j8F3_rKCU8

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by BioCRN

It would be one thing if they lived in an era where they're at the park signing and occasionally at shows/events, but when you're signing 1000s of cards on contract many times a year we're no longer in an era where your autograph can expected be a work of art.

Andre Dawson's autograph might look a lot different if at age 20 he signed a few thousand cards a year for many different card companies.

In a way, the card and memorabilia industry ruined autographs.

Not baseball, but here's John Cena signing some autographs..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_j8F3_rKCU8

That's nuts. Puts things into perspective a bit.

[JollyElm]

Originally Posted by seanofjapan

Agreed. In Ohtani’s case his autograph in Japanese is way more legible and he actually writes out each character.

Wow, that brings up an interesting question from this gaijin (had to look that one up). Is there a loose 'script' way of writing Japanese characters? The way an autograph in English doesn't comply with what each letter 'should' look like? That sorta thing?

[Fred]

Wasn't it not that long ago that Mike Trout limited cards were going vertical? What happened to those cards?

Shohei is Showtime. He's definitely an anomaly being a two way player and being effective in both disciplines. He hasn't been good enough to win a Cy Young award, but he's done pretty good on the mound.

He has almost 7 MLB seasons under his belt, of which only 4 are considered full seasons (including the current season).

What happens if Shohei hurts himself this year on in the next year or two and is laid up and no longer the same player he is today (let's hope that doesn't happen). What will the card prices be then.

Truly, how many people would pay that kind of money for a card? I'm guessing it's got to be a relatively low number. That's a lot of cash that you would only hope is someone's chump change and not part of their kids college fund or their retirement fund.

Personally, I'd rather spend my money on some nice 19th century material or other vintage cards.

[seanofjapan]

Originally Posted by JollyElm

Wow, that brings up an interesting question from this gaijin (had to look that one up). Is there a loose 'script' way of writing Japanese characters? The way an autograph in English doesn't comply with what each letter 'should' look like? That sorta thing?

There is, but it doesn’t get used much in autographs.

Ichiro is a good example. His name is formally written in kanji characters as 一郎 and is a fairly common first name. But when his name is written in Japanese they always used the simplified katakana characters as イチロー.

But his signature in Japanese is just a huge mess of squiggly lines and I can’t tell which version he is trying to write.

[bk400]

Regarding autographs, I have a baseball that Ozzie Smith autographed for me in person, 40 years ago, while I was leaning over the railing at Shea Stadium during warm ups. His signature was exactly the same as the ones I'm seeing today on his recently graded, hand-signed cards. I'm going to suspend any natural cynicism and say that there are some guys who still do things the right way, and they may not be the guys who made the most money playing baseball.

[bk400]

Sounds like Mr. Ohtani was monitoring this forum and saw people talking smack about him...

[seanofjapan]

Originally Posted by bk400

Sounds like Mr. Ohtani was monitoring this forum and saw people talking smack about him...

Walk off grand slams that put you in the 40-40 club sure are a good way to silence critics.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by seanofjapan

Walk off grand slams that put you in the 40-40 club sure are a good way to silence critics.

Fastest ever to join the 40-40 club too, but here he’s viewed as not doing it the right way.

[bk400]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...in-player-poll

The cited article in The Athletic is behind a paywall, but the above from last year was telling to me. Basically, 45% of surveyed MLB players would build a team around Ohtani. Judge was a distance second with around 14% of the vote.

Seems like Ohtani is a player's player, inasmuch as he is a fan favorite.

[jakebeckleyoldeagleeye]

Originally Posted by sbfinley

Grantland Rice over here waxing poetically on the guy that’a a two time MVP, on pace for the first 50/50 season in MLB history, made 80 starts over the previous three seasons with a sub 3.00 era, and is recovering from a torn UCL during said first 50/50 season. Truly marvelous.

Go shine his shoes then with the MLB Network shoeshine boys Mr. Hipster. You all can hype him together while Judge has slugs batting behind him and the glorious one has two MVP's protecting him. BTW without the DH where would he play this season since you are Mr. Know It All and marvelous also.

[Snowman]

It's pretty difficult to overrate the greatest talent that the game has ever seen.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by jakebeckleyoldeagleeye

Go shine his shoes then with the MLB Network shoeshine boys Mr. Hipster. You all can hype him together while Judge has slugs batting behind him and the glorious one has two MVP's protecting him. BTW without the DH where would he play this season since you are Mr. Know It All and marvelous also.

At this point, they could probably put him at shortstop and the dude would win a gold glove lol

[jboosted92]

Originally Posted by raulus

Getting back to the original premise, can the OP tell us a bit more about which Ohtani cards are undervalued, and why?

I suspect that for a lot of his issues, there is abundant supply. The exception being any with manufactured rarity.

So if there are 10 million of any given issue, what makes them undervalued?

i think just his base rookies, ungraded or PSA9 or below*

**I think there are ALOT OF SALTY people that dont want to believe someone is better than Ruth...... their letting the logic get in the way....

differnt eras yes, but Ruth basically stopped pitching pretty early, and to be fair wasnt facing the worlds best competition

[jboosted92]

Originally Posted by Snowman

It's pretty difficult to overrate the greatest talent that the game has ever seen.

Thank you.

Exactly

[jboosted92]

Originally Posted by Carter08

Fastest ever to join the 40-40 club too, but here he’s viewed as not doing it the right way.

with a rehabing UCL and likely getting to 45/45

with a shot at 50/50 or 45/50