Production Estimates / Print Run Archive

[JUrsaner]

The decline in Donruss production figures (slight) in 1992 and (major) in 1994 were based on details in some memos / press releases that Insidethewrapper posted higher up in the thread.

Let me know if those jibe with what you remember from the internal documents (increased sales growth yr-yr could be due to price increases rather than volume?) and/or if you can find the copies of the docs

Originally Posted by HasselhoffsCheeseburger

The Donruss numbers are off. I uncovered some Donruss internal sales documents from 1990 and they talked about the sales figures and growth from year-to-year throughout the decade. While these aren't actual production numbers, I think it's safe to infer that as sales increased dramatically, so did production.

Despite popular hobby sentiment, 1984 Donruss was not short printed. It was Donruss' most successful year to date and, in fact, they did so well that they decided to branch out and enter the Canadian market. From 1985 onward, sales virtually doubled every year.

If Donruss was doing this well, Topps must have been cleaning up because they had a much larger market share.

I know I saved a copy of these documents. There's virtually no way I would have come across such things and not made some kind of digital copy for my files. It's just a matter of me finding them.

Arthur

[Ngs428]

I have been lookin into some base parallel sets from 1980-1995. I have found the following, some of the print runs don't match the info in the OP.

https://www.tiffanycards.com/tiffany-cards has some good info. It logs actual sets with the serial numbers when they are sold.

Other info was from http://baseballcardpedia.com/index.php/

1984 Topps Tiffany base and traded: 7,000 (approx. 7,000 according to tiffanycards.com, 6,722 is the highest set number found)
1985 Topps Tiffany base and traded: 5,000 (5,000 according to tiffanycards.com, 5,000 is the highest set number found)
1986 Topps Tiffany base and traded: 5,000 (just over 5,000 according to tiffanycards.com, 5,125 is the highest set number found)
1987 Topps Tiffany base and traded: 30,000 (under 30,000 according to tiffanycards.com, 29,376 is the highest set number found)
1988 Topps Tiffany base and traded: 30,000 (just under 30,000 according to tiffanycards.com, 29,290 is the highest set number)
1989 Topps Tiffany base and traded: 15,000 (15,000 according to tiffanycards.com, 13,624 is the highest set number found)
1990 Topps Tiffany base and traded: 5,000 (under 5,000 according to tiffanycards.com, 4,315 is the highest set number found)
1991 Topps Tiffany base and traded: 4,000 (4,000 according to tiffanycards.com, 3,456 is the highest set number found)

1989 Bowman tiffany: 6,000 (6,096 is the highest set number found)
1990 Bowman tiffany: 6,000 (6,000 is the highest set number found)

1988 Score Glossy base: 5,000
1988 Score Glossy Traded: 3,000

1987 Fleer Glossy base and update: 75k-100k
1988 Fleer Glossy base and update: 40k-60k
1989 Fleer Glossy base (no update was made): 30k

1993 Topps Marlins Inaugural: 6,000
1993 Topps Rockies Inaugural: 10,000

1984 Fleer Update set: 12,000 unofficial (Not a parallel, but limited print run)
1984 Topps Nestle (Hand Cut): 5,000
1991 Topps Desert Shield: 6,313 unofficial
1993 Finest Refractors: 241
1993 Finest Jumbo (Partial Parallel #'s 84-116): 1,500
1993 Stadium Club First Day Issue: 2,000
1993 Stadium Club Members Only Factory Set: 12,000
1994 Stadium Club First Day Issue: 2,000
1994 Stadium Club Golden Rainbow (Gold Foil): ?
1994 Stadium Club Members Only Factory Set: 5,000
1994 Topps Spanish/Bilingual: 1,000 Factory Sets
1995 Stadium Club First Day Issue: 2,000?
1995 Stadium Club Members Only Factory Set: 4,000

[JUrsaner]

Thanks for posting -- looks like an incredible resource. I'll update the list. Been working on a lot of other sets for it, but haven't been updating it here

[JUrsaner]

Just hoping to find some renewed inspiration to keep building on this thread. Adding photos of some of my favorite cards from the '80s & '90s as a little reminder that there are amazing sets from the "Junkwax" era.

-- -- -- -- --

[dragonwagon9080]

I need help identifying this set #. I original thought it was 06722, but after a closer review and not finding any additional set above 6483, I doubt it is a 7. 06?22 - it has to be a 0, 1,2,3, or 4. It doesn't look like a 1,3, or 4 to me. So is it a 2 or a 0?

https://www.worthpoint.com/worthoped...ete-1920081063

[JUrsaner]

Originally Posted by dragonwagon9080

I need help identifying this set #. I original thought it was 06722, but after a closer review and not finding any additional set above 6483, I doubt it is a 7. 06?22 - it has to be a 0, 1,2,3, or 4. It doesn't look like a 1,3, or 4 to me. So is it a 2 or a 0?

https://www.worthpoint.com/worthoped...ete-1920081063

Kinda just looks like another 2, but faded

[Snowman]

I'm digging up this old thread because I'm interested in building a predictive statistical model, or econometrics type model, to estimate total print runs of vintage sets. It should be doable if I have a couple of known, or semi-known, sets that I can start with. I'll have to control for multiple factors, but I think it should be doable using pop report data as long as I can build a separate ensemble model that predicts the likelihood of a card being submitted in the first place (very doable, as the likelihood of a card being submitted for grading depends on demand and survival, as well as likelihoods of resubmission). From there, I should be able to estimate total print runs that at least pass the smell test.

Has any progress been made on this project in recent years?

[deweyinthehall]

In 1980, some Topps wax packs contained Hit to Win game cards - based upon the availability of wrappers bearing the Hit to Win ad versus the common "15 cards" statement, I think it's safe to say that less than half of the 1980 wax packs contained game cards - quite possibly a lot less.

Card backs indicate a total of 8875 prizes and that there were 2 prizes per 1000 cards.

Check my math, but this means that there was 1 prize per 500 game cards, and so there had to have been 4,437,500 game cards - right?

If so, let's assume that perhaps 4.4 million were pack inserted - no purchase was necessary, so some would have been held back for people who mailed in for one. This equates to 4.4 million packs, or 66 million cards.

With 726 cards, this comes out to roughly 90,909 of each card.

Because less than half the packs contained game cards lets double that and add some to come out with 250,000 of each card in wax packs.

Does this sound about right? Adding cards for cello, super cello, vending, rack, K-Mart and Squirt packaging, what might this mean for a total?

Do we have any idea if there was a standard ratio of how many wax packs were produced for each rack or cello?

[Rich Klein]

Originally Posted by deweyinthehall

In 1980, some Topps wax packs contained Hit to Win game cards - based upon the availability of wrappers bearing the Hit to Win ad versus the common "15 cards" statement, I think it's safe to say that less than half of the 1980 wax packs contained game cards - quite possibly a lot less.

Card backs indicate a total of 8875 prizes and that there were 2 prizes per 1000 cards.

Check my math, but this means that there was 1 prize per 500 game cards, and so there had to have been 4,437,500 game cards - right?

If so, let's assume that perhaps 4.4 million were pack inserted - no purchase was necessary, so some would have been held back for people who mailed in for one. This equates to 4.4 million packs, or 66 million cards.

With 726 cards, this comes out to roughly 90,909 of each card.

Because less than half the packs contained game cards lets double that and add some to come out with 250,000 of each card in wax packs.

Does this sound about right? Adding cards for cello, super cello, vending, rack, K-Mart and Squirt packaging, what might this mean for a total?

Do we have any idea if there was a standard ratio of how many wax packs were produced for each rack or cello?

The only problem with your count is there were also vending cases, rack packs and cello packs and I don't think those game cards were in any of those options. Thus the # you have can't be accurate

[deweyinthehall]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

The only problem with your count is there were also vending cases, rack packs and cello packs and I don't think those game cards were in any of those options. Thus the # you have can't be accurate

Which count? Honestly curious.

Even if we calculate the same number of both varieties of wax (with game cards and without) - which just doesn't seem supported by the evidence - we're looking at a total of between 180-200K of each card in wax alone.

And yes - game cards were only in wax. In addition to the cellos and rack and vending, there were super cellos, mini K-mart and Quirt packs, and those 80-card blister packs they did that year.

I have a distinct memory that in their 1980 "Year in Pictures" issue, Life had an image of the 1980 George Brett with a statement of how many Topps printed - I may have that issue and will dig for it.

[CA Esq]

I am surprised 1988 Score glossy is not more sought after.

[Estil17]

I know! So in 1988 we had THREE card companies (Topps/Fleer/Score) to have this kind of set!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6Q3mHyzn78

[Estil17]

Originally Posted by West

I would like to address the years 1989 Upper Deck base and 1990 Topps base. I have done some research into the printing of 1990 Topps. Also, Pete Williams' "Card Sharks" gave readers an unprecedented look behind the scenes of the production of 1989 Upper Deck. According to the book, the initial release of 1989 Upper Deck was for around 125,000 cases. That's 1.4 billion cards. That's around 2 million of each card in the 700 card first series. Now we know they couldn't keep up with demand and continued printing. For argument's sake, let's say they doubled the initial print run and made 4 million of each card (2.8 billion total cards printed). One source inside the industry claimed that 81 billion trading cards were printed by the late '80s and early 90's.

I once had a 1989 Baseball Cards magazine issue years ago that had a two page Upper Deck ad (I've never seen it since anywhere on the Internet) showing a cartoon of a card store with three kids enjoying their 1989 Upper Deck cards while two others are sitting on the curb sad because they missed out. The ad said there'd only be enough cards made for three out of five baseball card collectors (however many they thought there were) to have a set. And promised that future years more would be produced. And in the Beckett/Sport Americana annual price guide it said the original idea was to have one million of each card but apparently they decided to double that number so soon?

I'd love to read that book if it ever shows up on the Internet Archive...

[Mark17]

Has it been made clear whether the numbers are raw total, or number of sets (number of each card.) You have 2,500,000 for 1987 Topps. I personally broke almost 600 vending cases that year (6 million+ total cards) which would be about 9,000 of each card. One customer bought 4,500 each of about 30 different players in one massive purchase.

I remember, years ago, somebody was finding Topps production info from shareholder publications.

[Estil17]

Originally Posted by Mark17

Has it been made clear whether the numbers are raw total, or number of sets (number of each card.) You have 2,500,000 for 1987 Topps. I personally broke almost 600 vending cases that year (6 million+ total cards) which would be about 9,000 of each card. One customer bought 4,500 each of about 30 different players in one massive purchase.

I remember, years ago, somebody was finding Topps production info from shareholder publications.

It can't be that easy...I mean back in the day I thought production numbers were treated as top secret as nuclear launch codes? And to answer your previous question that's 2.5M of each card. Which might sound like a lot but it wouldn't even be enough for everyone in my state (KY) to have one!

[Mark17]

Originally Posted by Estil17

It can't be that easy...I mean back in the day I thought production numbers were treated as top secret as nuclear launch codes? And to answer your previous question that's 2.5M of each card. Which might sound like a lot but it wouldn't even be enough for everyone in my state (KY) to have one!

There are certain legal disclosures a public company needs to make public to its shareholders. There was a guy in the 1980s who wrote a few articles in SCD, where he extrapolated production information from the shareholder annual reports he received.

From Wikipedia:
After being privately held for several decades, Topps offered stock to the public for the first time in 1972 with the assistance of investment banking firm White, Weld & Co. The company returned to private ownership when it was acquired in a leveraged buyout led by Forstmann Little & Company in 1984. The new ownership group again made Topps into a publicly traded company in 1987, now renamed to The Topps Company, Inc. In this incarnation, the company was reincorporated under Delaware General Corporation Law for legal reasons, but company headquarters remained in New York. Management was left in the hands of the Shorin family throughout all of these maneuverings.

On October 12, 2007, Topps was acquired by Michael Eisner's The Tornante Company and Madison Dearborn Partners.

[Estil17]

Has anyone been able to at least guesstimate how many football and b-ball cards were produced from 80s or earlier? I'm really curious about that.