Are Baseball Cards Destined to Slowly Diminish in Value?

rdwyer · #1 06-06-2011, 02:53 PM

After cherry picking the shiny stuff, dealers should donate the thousands of unwanted cards to Elementary schools. It's the only way that kids will become interested in BB cards. Otherwise, kids will stay away because of the high prices.

My third graders go nuts when I auction off 100 cards at once at monthly auctions. (Children earn scholar dollars for scholarly traits. They maintain a check register for credits & debits. Things from the DollarTree store, etc are then auctioned off. BB cards are the most popular.)

mark evans · #2 06-06-2011, 03:16 PM

With the possible exception of true rarities, I think values will gradually decline over time due to the combined effect of long-term economic conditions and aging baby boomers.

novakjr · #3 06-06-2011, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mark evans

With the possible exception of true rarities, I think values will gradually decline over time due to the combined effect of long-term economic conditions and aging baby boomers.

Even if cards stay the same price, they are sill dropping in value. Since baseball cards carry limited value or interest overseas, their value is strictly based on their relationship in regards to the American dollar.. Basically, if they don't follow suit with inflation, they are becoming less valuable. I'd see the sports that have more of a growing global interest showing more upside investment-wise in the future due to their global value. That said, Soccer cards carry very little value as they currently sit, so I'd see Boxing cards/collectibles having the most to gain in a volatile economy. Possibly even Hockey or Basketball, since those are the sports in which foreign countries are showing the biggest increase in interest in regards to the American professionalized leagues and their history.

grundle20 · #4 06-06-2011, 03:53 PM

rdwyer, what a great idea about the schools. Absolutely brilliant. There are so many worthless cards out there, but kindergarden kids aren't concerned with value. They'd just be interested in the novelty. I wonder how you'd go about making that a reality.

rdwyer · #5 06-06-2011, 04:19 PM

grundle20:

Very easy. Contact any Elementary school and ask if they want them. Most Principals will use them to either bribe or reward students. Spread them around to as many schools as possible. Some schools will use them in school fundraising. So you would be helping not only the school, but also the students.

mcap100176 · #6 06-06-2011, 05:59 PM

Joe - sorry for the delayed reply.

No I am not in healthcare. But healthcare and education are two major economic drivers. Both are still growth fields and until they collapse, the economy will be fine. Believe me when I say this...don't be concerned with unemployment, be concerned with the country's infrastructure. You won't believe how bad the sewer and water systems are.

To get back on topic...the hobby will ebb and flow. When I came back, I was HOF rookie cards. Now I am more into what I think is "cool or interesting" and sold off the HOFers. If the 48 Leaf set is interesting to someone, then they go after it. There is something for everyone.

tedzan · #7 06-06-2011, 07:18 PM

Let's go back to 1982 and for example I'll talk about the 1949 Leaf BB cards that you collect. I was acquiring this set's scarce 2nd series
commons for $25 (Ex cards) to complete my 98-card set. Nowadays these same SP Leafs go for $500 each.

I really lucked out at a BB card show in NJ by acquiring the Leaf Satchell Paige for a cash/trade deal equalling $200. Nowadays the same
Leaf Paige goes for $10,000+.

The U.S. economy in the early 1980's, when you were born, was suffering. High unemployment and high Interest rates. Most people were
stashing their cash into Savings accounts and getting up to a 20% return. Not many were "investing" in collectibles in the early 1980's.

By the end of that decade, the hobby was doing great, as unemployment dropped and Interest rates were down around 7%.

Baseball card values levelled off from 1990 to 1998. Then, started going up again in the late 1990's to their current values. Currently, low
Interest rates have offset the failing economy and card values are certainly looking good. However, the Sub-prime Home Mortgage problem
is not going away; and, may actually get worse. This factor may affect card values in the future.

Finally, I don't see as many kids getting into BB card collecting as did in the 1980's and 1990's. Therefore, this hobby's growth is diminishing.
There are quite a few factors causing this....but, that's a story for another time.

P.S.......Sorry, I corrected you regarding the year of the Leaf cards. I collected them as a kid; and, trust me they were issued in the Spring
and Summer of 1949. I wrote an article on this set in the OLD CARDBOARD Magazine (Issue #9). You'll find it very interesting and it explains
why these cards are a 1949-only issue.

TED Z

bosoxphan · #8 06-06-2011, 08:04 PM

i think about football in relation to baseball. Football is clearly the most popular sport in America and its really not even that close. Wonder if classic football cards will eventually gain in popularity quicker than baseball cards going forward.

mcadams · #9 06-06-2011, 10:45 PM

Funny to hear everyone state their ages. I too am 34 and I don't collect much of anything from the 50's, for many of the reasons already discussed here. I collect Aaron because my parents were at the game at the old Atlanta Fulton County Stadium when he broke the HR record, so we have sort of a family connection with Aaron and the Braves in general. But other than Aaron, I don't touch 50's stuff because I never saw any of the guys play, and more importantly I don't have ANY attachment or sentimental view toward that era.

I do feel an attachment to most all N series cards because I view them more as historical pieces and also as artwork. I recognize that our country invented the game of baseball and THOSE were the guys who were there as the game was first created. That kind of historical appeal, I agree, will never go away.

bbcard1 · #10 06-07-2011, 06:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bosoxphan

i think about football in relation to baseball. Football is clearly the most popular sport in America and its really not even that close. Wonder if classic football cards will eventually gain in popularity quicker than baseball cards going forward.

I sincerely doubt it. Football is very much an event driven thing. Most fans don't care if it's Leroy Kelly or Thurman Thomas or Ahmad Bradshaw tottin the rock...it's just the result that matters.

History in football is not nearly as appreciated. Most guys you'll find at your average NFL game have no idea who Pete Pihos or Tommy McDonald were. And there's a good reason for that.

It is absurd to compare the eras. A decent DIII team could probably play with most NFL squads of the 30s. As late as the 1960s, players as a whole were either far smaller or far slower than the modern player. It's not to say they didn't have great accomplishments...they did...or that the best then wouldn't be the best now...I think Jim Brown may well be the greatest American athlete...but we're talking about a mean.

Football players have short careers as a rule which keeps them from building a strong fan base over more than a decade.

They don't look on the field like they look on the street. They have a helmet on.

These are just a few of the reasons...I think football card collecting, for the most part, will be a lot like penny collecting. It's a great hobby but not necessarily a great investment.

egbeachley · #11 06-07-2011, 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tedzan

Let's go back to 1982 and for example I'll talk about the 1949 Leaf BB cards that you collect. I was acquiring this set's scarce 2nd series
commons for $25 (Ex cards) to complete my 98-card set. Nowadays these same SP Leafs go for $500 each.

TED Z

I took a quick look at the stock market during the same time frame. From mid-1982 to mid-2011, the Dow and NASDAQ went up 15-fold and 16-fold. Not much different than those 1949 Leafs which went up 20-fold.

That being said, the 1949 Leafs were still better and even if they were the same, I bet owning the cards were more fun.

JLange · #12 06-07-2011, 08:32 PM

...to our nation since 1980! Roughly 33% more people. Even a diminished interest in baseball / collecting cards in 50 years could potentially equate to a much larger market than today.

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