Is this card really worth that????

[Wite3]

You can not use pop reports for comparison...First off, people have broken out cards and sent them to cross. Next, if I understand pop. reports, PSA and SGC did not distinguish between Cycle to start and only started doing this more recently. Third, the grading companies make mistakes. I can tell you right now that I used to own a Wilhelm suffe ed that I cracked out of a PSA case that just said Wilhelm. Using grading reports and pop. reports is useless imho.

I think that Matty is more often seen for sale than the ten I listed. Even the Matty cycle has come up three or four times in the last 6 months. I can honestly say that in 2009 I only saw Joss a handful of times. Joss is a single print, HOFer, and in demand. It is a tough card to come by and when it does come up, it commands a lot of attention. Heck, I know at least three collectors who ask if I have an extra or know of one at least twice a year! I guess using the definitions, Joss would be rare and scarce (as are all the cards in my top ten). Matty cycle is not rare but is currently scarce as collector demand is currently high.

Joshua

[Matt]

Originally Posted by Wite3

Joss would be rare and scarce (as are all the cards in my top ten). Matty cycle is not rare but is currently scarce as collector demand is currently high.

Even though SGC shows 62 graded Josses and only 11 graded "37-1" Mattys, you think the Joss is rare and the Matty is not due to pop report abnormalities? Obviously pop reports aren't 100% accurate but it's hard to believe a combination of SGC badly mis-labeling a ton of Cycle Matty's as other brands and multiple cracks and resubmissions of T205 Josses that would account for that huge difference in populations.

Anecdotally (which is pretty flimsy evidence compared to the above), I've owned 4 T205 Josses and only 1 Cycle Matty.

[Tcards-Please]

Originally Posted by Matt

Even though SGC shows 62 graded Josses and only 11 graded "37-1" Mattys, you think the Joss is rare and the Matty is not due to pop report abnormalities? Obviously pop reports aren't 100% accurate but it's hard to believe a combination of SGC badly mis-labeling a ton of Cycle Matty's as other brands and multiple cracks and resubmissions of T205 Josses that would account for that huge difference in populations.

Anecdotally (which is pretty flimsy evidence compared to the above), I've owned 4 T205 Josses and only 1 Cycle Matty.

Matt - I'm not sure people are truly making a distinction between the Cycle Mathewson and others. No way is the Joss more rare than the Cycle Mathewson. Unless Joshua is saying that the Cycle Joss is more rare than the Cycle Mathewson (which using the pop report is correct), there is no way that Joss as a whole is more rare than the cycle Mathewson. As far as SGC slabbing, the Mathewson is one of the most slabbed cards in the T205 set at 232. I just looked at the Cobb and they have only slabbed 182 (none with a cycle back), Young 111, Johnson 116. It's amazing that you have one of the most slabbed cards in the T205 set and only 11 are cycles. Using Joshua's statement that cards are cracked and reslabbed would only mean that there are even less since the same cards are going back and forth between companies. I have been tracking the sale of the cycle Mathewson since the Old Judge auction and I have only seen two that were identified as cycles sold. Both on ebay (Feb 2009 and this one that is currently being listed on ebay). It would be interesting to know where the 3 or 4 that Joshua says sold in the last 6 months were?

tbob - where were the sellers when the one sold for $9503? I didn't see anyone placing their's on the BST. The one currently on ebay was at $3000.00 when pulled. It's odd that others who have them and are saying that there isn't a premium aren't placing theirs on ebay.

r/
Frank

[Wite3]

Andrew,

I am glad you are able to buy "cheap" AB and Cycle lately but I have to say that most T205 cards have come down...in the last year, cards that went for $20-$25 are now selling for $13-17. Cards in the midgrades have also gone down. The good news is that high grade T205s have either remained steady or increased in price depending on player, demand, and scarcity.

I also hope you know that you will only have a subset of t205s as not all cards come with AB or Cycle backs.

Matty cycle should not be on the list because there are too many of them.
As you keep saying, Cycle is easy to find. Matty is not a short print and was printed as many times as Doyle, Olmstead, etc. We did a quick poll last time this topic came up and I know that at least five or six members came forward immediately saying and showing that they had Matty Cycles.

Price should not be a factor either, otherwise Cobb and Young and maybe Johnson would be on the list since all sell a little higher than some of the cards listed.

Joshua

[Wite3]

If that card sells for $9500, I would gather that many Matty cycle backs would hit the market in the next few months. My research really does show that Matty Cycle should be more available than Joss (eventhough Joss comes with three backs incl. Cycle, it was shortprinted greatly).

If not, then here is something to ponder....that means that Cycle Breshnahan, Brown, Evers, Huggins, Marquad, McGraw, Tinker, Wheat should all be rarer and sell for more than Joss (and the other rarities)? They are all HOFers and available with the Cycle back and just as plentiful as the Matty.

Joshua

[Matt]

Originally Posted by Wite3

My research really does show that Matty Cycle should be more available than Joss

The pop reports show significantly otherwise (5-6 times as many Josses as Matty Cycles). My guess as to why your survey shows differently then the SGC population reports is that your documentation is of which cards came up for sale (scarcity) which doesn't necessarily indicate how many of each exist (rarity). The Joss has been a known rarity for years and people may hold on to it; the Matty only recently gained wide acclaim and is still not 100% well known (in fact we had a long time board member start a thread about a month ago asking if anyone knew anything about a 37-1 Matty variation) and therefore it's probable not everyone is yet holding it; I wonder approximately what % of the sales of the Cycle Matty that you recorded were advertised as it being the rare 37-1 variation?

If not, then here is something to ponder....that means that Cycle Breshnahan, Brown, Evers, Huggins, Marquad, McGraw, Tinker, Wheat should all be rarer and sell for more than Joss (and the other rarities)?

Rarity doesn't equal selling for more. I know you suggested in another thread that the T206 DeMitt/O'Hara only sell for more because you think they are rarer then other PB cards but that argument isn't correct; there are many PB backed T206s with identical press runs to the DeMitt & O'Hara that sell for no such premium. As is this case here, it is the combination of the rarity + the variation that drives the value and the reason why the Matty will always sell for more then the other HOFers you mentioned, even if they all exist with Cycle backs in similar numbers.

If collectors collected "true master sets" (every front back advertising combo) then your logic would be correct, but most T-card set collectors consider a master set complete with player-specific textual variations, but not counting advertising back differences. It's why most consider the T206 set includes both version of Demitt/O'Hara.

[barrysloate]

If I were to posit a guess on the future price of a Matty with Cycle back, I would say it is likely to come down from its $9500 level, but still sell for more than it should with relation to other Cycle backs.

[tbob]

One caveat about the Matty 37-1 Cycle back is that when collectors (myself included) built a T205 set, no significance was given to the company which produced the cards, i.e. Sweet cap, Piedmont, AB, Cycle, etc. I noticed I had far fewer Broadleafs upon completion and no Drums or Hindus but otherwise I was concerned with the fronts and making sure each card had no creases or damage and was well centered and the only back concerns I had were whether there were any ink smudging or marking, staining or paper loss.
The bottom line is that there are going to be several of these Matty "variations" pop up in non-slabbed sets owned by collectors so I wouldn't take the slabbed pops as gospel. Although I slab all my caramels, my tobacco cards and sets are 90% unslabbed. I think a lot of collectors, especially grizzled old veterans, have sets which are not slabbed so the pop numbers are going to be off quite a bit on this card.

[Matt]

Originally Posted by tbob

The bottom line is that there are going to be several of these Matty "variations" pop up in non-slabbed sets owned by collectors so I wouldn't take the slabbed pops as gospel. Although I slab all my caramels, my tobacco cards and sets are 90% unslabbed. I think a lot of collectors, especially grizzled old veterans, have sets which are not slabbed so the pop numbers are going to be off quite a bit on this card.

Bob - that's a good point when comparing it to a caramel, but when comparing to other T205s (as we have been) it shouldn't make a difference - I'd think most people who would have their T205 Wilhelm slabbed would also have their T205 Matty slabbed; in fact the opposite is probably true - more Matty's are likely slabbed then a random T205 common.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Matt

There are many PB backed T206s with identical press runs to the DeMitt & O'Hara that sell for no such premium. As is this case here, it is the combination of the rarity + the variation that drives the value and the reason why the Matty will always sell for more then the other HOFers you mentioned, even if they all exist with Cycle backs in similar numbers.

If collectors collected "true master sets" (every front back advertising combo) then your logic would be correct, but most T-card set collectors consider a master set complete with player-specific textual variations, but not counting advertising back differences. It's why most consider the T206 set includes both version of Demitt/O'Hara.

I think in a prior thread I also chimed in on this one. As far as I can tell, this variation is the same as the Demmitt and O'Hara T206 variations, except it occurs on the reverse. If Matty had a white hat on his T205 Cycle backed cards, I think you would have more people pursuing it as a true -- and rarer -- variation, notwithstanding that it appears on all Cycle-backed T205 Matty's.

[Tcards-Please]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

I think in a prior thread I also chimed in on this one. As far as I can tell, this variation is the same as the Demmitt and O'Hara T206 variations, except it occurs on the reverse. If Matty had a white hat on his T205 Cycle backed cards, I think you would have more people pursuing it as a true -- and rarer -- variation, notwithstanding that it appears on all Cycle-backed T205 Matty's.

You hit it right on the head, I couldn't have said it any better.

r/
Frank

[Anthony S.]

I will gladly mail the number "1" to whomever wants to affix it to their Cycle Matties. You pay postage.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by Wite3

If that card sells for $9500, I would gather that many Matty cycle backs would hit the market in the next few months.

Joshua

Josh, if that card sells for $3500 I would guarantee at least one Matty Cycle back will hit the BST an hour later.

[tbob]

Originally Posted by calvindog

Josh, if that card sells for $3500 I would guarantee at least one Matty Cycle back will hit the BST an hour later.

Make that two.

[Tcards-Please]

Originally Posted by calvindog

Josh, if that card sells for $3500 I would guarantee at least one Matty Cycle back will hit the BST an hour later.

Originally Posted by tbob

Make that two.

Andrew, if you didn't win it, keep your eyes on the BST, as several people will be listing theirs today.

The final price w/o buyers premium was $5999.00.

http://www.goodwinandco.com/LotDetail.aspx?lotid=12549

r/
Frank

yeah frank in a couple yrs the card will be quit a bit less. I am going to wait for the hype to pass before pursuing. I would rather drop $8k on a Hobby no stats.

[marcdelpercio]

I really don't think the prices on this card will drop much over the long run. I hope they do as this is the only card I'm missing towards a master set. However, consider these factors:

1. This has been accepted as a true variation by at least a large percentage of the collecting community (not trying to reopen that debate but I think the evidence is clear).

2. This is one of the most beautiful cards in the T205 set (if not EVER produced) which is widely popular and collected.

3. This is a top-tier Hall of Fame player.

4. This is a scarce card. With all tracking information that I have seen, I think an estimate of 25-50 known copies is pretty accurate.

If Dick Hoblitzell is commanding 6-8k for a poor grade copy of a print variation from the same set, what makes you think that Christy Mathewson can't be at least in that same ballpark? I realize that the Hoblitzell is probably a bit scarcer...but not much. Given the factors I listed, I'm curious to hear a logical explanation of why anybody feels that this card will drastically decrease in demand/value over the long run.