Is this card really worth that????

[Mrc32]

Originally Posted by Wite3

The list of rarity changes with new finds but here is what I have been working with lately independent of advertising...

Hobby no stats #1
Wilhelm suffered #2
Wallace no cap 1 line stats #4
Joss #4
Moran stray #5
Wallace no cap 2 line stats #6
Hobby no cin. name correct #7
Gray stats #8
Wilhelm suffe ed #9
Hobby no cin. name incorrect #10

Now, there has been some flux between #4-10 and some people might argue that some others should be included but these are my top ten and #1,2,3 are very very difficult.



Joshua

WOW- I love this thread.

So are you suggesting that the Joss is the 4th most scare card in the master set? Wow. I had no idea.

I would like to ask, when you say scare, do you mean total population of the card (either on the market or in collections) or do you mean frequency that a card comes up for sale?

[Matt]

Rarity, has to do with populations; scarcity has to do with how often a card is available.

Using the SGC numbers, it seems the Mathewson variation is 2nd to only Hobby no stats as far as T205 variation rarity.

[calvindog]

Did SGC always differentiate the backs on its slabs?

[Matt]

Originally Posted by calvindog

Did SGC always differentiate the backs on its slabs?

I believe SGC has always differentiated the advertising backs on their slabs. Also, their pop report is broken up by Ad back (the numbers total) and there is no "other" category.

[Wite3]

You can not use pop reports for comparison...First off, people have broken out cards and sent them to cross. Next, if I understand pop. reports, PSA and SGC did not distinguish between Cycle to start and only started doing this more recently. Third, the grading companies make mistakes. I can tell you right now that I used to own a Wilhelm suffe ed that I cracked out of a PSA case that just said Wilhelm. Using grading reports and pop. reports is useless imho.

I think that Matty is more often seen for sale than the ten I listed. Even the Matty cycle has come up three or four times in the last 6 months. I can honestly say that in 2009 I only saw Joss a handful of times. Joss is a single print, HOFer, and in demand. It is a tough card to come by and when it does come up, it commands a lot of attention. Heck, I know at least three collectors who ask if I have an extra or know of one at least twice a year! I guess using the definitions, Joss would be rare and scarce (as are all the cards in my top ten). Matty cycle is not rare but is currently scarce as collector demand is currently high.

Joshua

[Matt]

Originally Posted by Wite3

Joss would be rare and scarce (as are all the cards in my top ten). Matty cycle is not rare but is currently scarce as collector demand is currently high.

Even though SGC shows 62 graded Josses and only 11 graded "37-1" Mattys, you think the Joss is rare and the Matty is not due to pop report abnormalities? Obviously pop reports aren't 100% accurate but it's hard to believe a combination of SGC badly mis-labeling a ton of Cycle Matty's as other brands and multiple cracks and resubmissions of T205 Josses that would account for that huge difference in populations.

Anecdotally (which is pretty flimsy evidence compared to the above), I've owned 4 T205 Josses and only 1 Cycle Matty.

[Tcards-Please]

Originally Posted by Matt

Even though SGC shows 62 graded Josses and only 11 graded "37-1" Mattys, you think the Joss is rare and the Matty is not due to pop report abnormalities? Obviously pop reports aren't 100% accurate but it's hard to believe a combination of SGC badly mis-labeling a ton of Cycle Matty's as other brands and multiple cracks and resubmissions of T205 Josses that would account for that huge difference in populations.

Anecdotally (which is pretty flimsy evidence compared to the above), I've owned 4 T205 Josses and only 1 Cycle Matty.

Matt - I'm not sure people are truly making a distinction between the Cycle Mathewson and others. No way is the Joss more rare than the Cycle Mathewson. Unless Joshua is saying that the Cycle Joss is more rare than the Cycle Mathewson (which using the pop report is correct), there is no way that Joss as a whole is more rare than the cycle Mathewson. As far as SGC slabbing, the Mathewson is one of the most slabbed cards in the T205 set at 232. I just looked at the Cobb and they have only slabbed 182 (none with a cycle back), Young 111, Johnson 116. It's amazing that you have one of the most slabbed cards in the T205 set and only 11 are cycles. Using Joshua's statement that cards are cracked and reslabbed would only mean that there are even less since the same cards are going back and forth between companies. I have been tracking the sale of the cycle Mathewson since the Old Judge auction and I have only seen two that were identified as cycles sold. Both on ebay (Feb 2009 and this one that is currently being listed on ebay). It would be interesting to know where the 3 or 4 that Joshua says sold in the last 6 months were?

tbob - where were the sellers when the one sold for $9503? I didn't see anyone placing their's on the BST. The one currently on ebay was at $3000.00 when pulled. It's odd that others who have them and are saying that there isn't a premium aren't placing theirs on ebay.

r/
Frank

[Wite3]

Andrew,

I am glad you are able to buy "cheap" AB and Cycle lately but I have to say that most T205 cards have come down...in the last year, cards that went for $20-$25 are now selling for $13-17. Cards in the midgrades have also gone down. The good news is that high grade T205s have either remained steady or increased in price depending on player, demand, and scarcity.

I also hope you know that you will only have a subset of t205s as not all cards come with AB or Cycle backs.

Matty cycle should not be on the list because there are too many of them.
As you keep saying, Cycle is easy to find. Matty is not a short print and was printed as many times as Doyle, Olmstead, etc. We did a quick poll last time this topic came up and I know that at least five or six members came forward immediately saying and showing that they had Matty Cycles.

Price should not be a factor either, otherwise Cobb and Young and maybe Johnson would be on the list since all sell a little higher than some of the cards listed.

Joshua

[Wite3]

If that card sells for $9500, I would gather that many Matty cycle backs would hit the market in the next few months. My research really does show that Matty Cycle should be more available than Joss (eventhough Joss comes with three backs incl. Cycle, it was shortprinted greatly).

If not, then here is something to ponder....that means that Cycle Breshnahan, Brown, Evers, Huggins, Marquad, McGraw, Tinker, Wheat should all be rarer and sell for more than Joss (and the other rarities)? They are all HOFers and available with the Cycle back and just as plentiful as the Matty.

Joshua

[Matt]

Originally Posted by Wite3

My research really does show that Matty Cycle should be more available than Joss

The pop reports show significantly otherwise (5-6 times as many Josses as Matty Cycles). My guess as to why your survey shows differently then the SGC population reports is that your documentation is of which cards came up for sale (scarcity) which doesn't necessarily indicate how many of each exist (rarity). The Joss has been a known rarity for years and people may hold on to it; the Matty only recently gained wide acclaim and is still not 100% well known (in fact we had a long time board member start a thread about a month ago asking if anyone knew anything about a 37-1 Matty variation) and therefore it's probable not everyone is yet holding it; I wonder approximately what % of the sales of the Cycle Matty that you recorded were advertised as it being the rare 37-1 variation?

If not, then here is something to ponder....that means that Cycle Breshnahan, Brown, Evers, Huggins, Marquad, McGraw, Tinker, Wheat should all be rarer and sell for more than Joss (and the other rarities)?

Rarity doesn't equal selling for more. I know you suggested in another thread that the T206 DeMitt/O'Hara only sell for more because you think they are rarer then other PB cards but that argument isn't correct; there are many PB backed T206s with identical press runs to the DeMitt & O'Hara that sell for no such premium. As is this case here, it is the combination of the rarity + the variation that drives the value and the reason why the Matty will always sell for more then the other HOFers you mentioned, even if they all exist with Cycle backs in similar numbers.

If collectors collected "true master sets" (every front back advertising combo) then your logic would be correct, but most T-card set collectors consider a master set complete with player-specific textual variations, but not counting advertising back differences. It's why most consider the T206 set includes both version of Demitt/O'Hara.

[barrysloate]

If I were to posit a guess on the future price of a Matty with Cycle back, I would say it is likely to come down from its $9500 level, but still sell for more than it should with relation to other Cycle backs.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Matt

There are many PB backed T206s with identical press runs to the DeMitt & O'Hara that sell for no such premium. As is this case here, it is the combination of the rarity + the variation that drives the value and the reason why the Matty will always sell for more then the other HOFers you mentioned, even if they all exist with Cycle backs in similar numbers.

If collectors collected "true master sets" (every front back advertising combo) then your logic would be correct, but most T-card set collectors consider a master set complete with player-specific textual variations, but not counting advertising back differences. It's why most consider the T206 set includes both version of Demitt/O'Hara.

I think in a prior thread I also chimed in on this one. As far as I can tell, this variation is the same as the Demmitt and O'Hara T206 variations, except it occurs on the reverse. If Matty had a white hat on his T205 Cycle backed cards, I think you would have more people pursuing it as a true -- and rarer -- variation, notwithstanding that it appears on all Cycle-backed T205 Matty's.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by Wite3

If that card sells for $9500, I would gather that many Matty cycle backs would hit the market in the next few months.

Joshua

Josh, if that card sells for $3500 I would guarantee at least one Matty Cycle back will hit the BST an hour later.

[tbob]

Originally Posted by calvindog

Josh, if that card sells for $3500 I would guarantee at least one Matty Cycle back will hit the BST an hour later.

Make that two.

[Tcards-Please]

Originally Posted by calvindog

Josh, if that card sells for $3500 I would guarantee at least one Matty Cycle back will hit the BST an hour later.

Originally Posted by tbob

Make that two.

Andrew, if you didn't win it, keep your eyes on the BST, as several people will be listing theirs today.

The final price w/o buyers premium was $5999.00.

http://www.goodwinandco.com/LotDetail.aspx?lotid=12549

r/
Frank