Is this card really worth that????

[sox1903wschamp]

Originally Posted by Pup6913

Also to adress Mr Steele an auction houses deal is to make the card sound irresistable so that it brings top dollar. That card didn't sell for as much as a normall backed card. So there is a good example to start with.

Ahhh yes, auction hyperbole. I am going to agree with you but they are certaintly not in the same ballpark as say, the Goodwins of the world

[tbob]

I put together a T205 set, sold it in the early 90's, then put together the set I have now in the late 90's. I didn't notice any premium for Cycle cards and a slight premium for ABs. The higher premiums were for Broadleaf, Hindu and Drum. I am still one of the minority which thinks the Hindus are the scarcest, most think Drums are toughest. All 4 are tougher than Cycles. That said I have't been buying any T205s in 10 years so what do I know?

Brian you have to look at the market command. In 06' we were not dealing with a depression (recession) as we were starting to experience in 08'. Prices reflect cards selling near or higher then now also.

If I remember I discussed this same situation with another member about his SGC 4 Cobb and why he was asking so much for it. I brought to his attention that there were 2 recent AB backed Cobbs in auction houses and several others in the same grade w/common backs selling for about $500+ less than he was asking for a Piedmont. Seems the card is still for sale and this was in he summer time. All you need to do is a few minutes or research in the web, auction house archives, VCP, Card Pricer, Ebay, ect. to find this info and do the comparisons.

I will arguee this till I can't breath that AB and Cycle backed T205's do not carry a premium. Unless you are buying alot of them instead of one here and there you will not see the amount passing through, and the prices they are going for.

They come in spurts. I bought 15 AB and Cycle backed T205's in grade 4's and higher in about 10 days on Ebay. None sold for more than normal. A few weeks later a couple popped up and they sold for about $10 more than average, then another group showed up and the prices actually were selling for less than average.

Sovereigns come around less than AB and Cycles lately. This makes me wonder.

So I think what we are all trying to get to here is the actuall price that a Matty Cycle should sell for. We all know Hoblitzell is the rarest, followed by what??? Does anyone have that list? That will make a great start for figuring this out. I say an average 4 should bring $1500-$2500 after the hype settles.

If you own one what would you want to sell it for and in what condition is the card? Bet I don't get many honest responses for this question

[marcdelpercio]

Just out of curiosity Andrew, why are you so avidly collecting Cycle and AB backed T205's if you don't feel that they are any scarcer or more valuable than Piedmonts?

One can always find individual data to try to prove a point and no doubt you have probably found some very good deals as you mentioned over the past several months. I think that most who actively collect the T205 set would place a premium on Cycle and AB backed cards. That's of course not to say that every such card will always sell for more than a similar card with a more common back. But overall, I am confident that this will hold true.

P.S. At your suggestion, I did a few minutes of research and checked recent sales on eBay. The last (and only recent) AB card to sell was this common:

http://cgi.ebay.com/1911-T205-Americ...item255639dba2

Note that none of the other SGC 70's of common players on eBay now even have an ASKING price of more than $275.

[Wite3]

A few things first...Andrew has bought many T205s in the past year but I am fairly certain, I now own one of the largest and most diverse t205 collections. I have also, watched, charted, and handled thousands of t205s in the last decade. In the past 15 years I have put one near master set together missing only a Drum and a Hobby no stats, and am very close on a second set (minus three cards). Andrews set and cards are certainly in better condition than mine but I love my beaters.

Now, a bit of history...the Cycles used to carry a slight premium, usually about 2x-3x...that all changed about 5 years ago when a rather large find was made and sold into the hobby through ebay and two other auction houses. The premium seemed to go down and I was able to pick up some nice Cycles for nearly the same prices as the more common backs. I will say that they are at least twice as rare as HLC or Hassan still...they also do carry a slight premium...just check ebay...there was one that I lost (or am losing) just the other day that is nearly twice what I paid for a similar condition PB two weeks before. American Beauty definitely still carries a premium. Always has...especially the black version. This version now seems to be rarer...Now, the economy is making the prices bump up and down a bunch lately...Andrew, if you really want, I have a fantastic argument on why there should be a premium on Cycle and AB....because flatly, there are fewer of them made than the others...Sovereign barely contains a premium because a bunch have come to market in the past and they are not as scarce as once thought (In fact, in my first article sent to friends on the T205 set in 1996, I had the rarity of Sovereign more than Cycle and American Beauty because at the time, they were seen less commonly). This set changes rarity on finds...see Hindu/Drum example below...

Bob, When I first started tracking backs and doing research on this, I noticed that Hindu was listed as rarest. As I tracked there was a small Hindu find in the early '90s which seemed to push Drum to the top. Up until recently, I had charted 23 different Hindu players including at least 2 instances where there were two distinct cards of the same player meaning the Hindu had to run a printing at least twice. Now there are 31 distinct subjects.

Up until a year ago, I had only seen 18 different Drum backs, all different fronts. Until the St. Louis find, I figured it may have only run once, but I finally found a double, so I know that the Drum run was run at least twice. No the Drums and Hindus seem just about even again.

I still believe that Drum is tougher but not by much anymore.

The Cycle Matty is no scarcer than any other Cycle card as far as I can tell. The Wilhelm suffered is scarcer. I think that the print run for that card was different. I think that it is a single print that replaced another card on the sheet or was replaced by another card (like a minor leaguer) and was run with a much shorter print run. Just like the Hoblitzell no stats was probably replaced by another card or replaced another card and run with a much shorter print run. Whether it happened early in the print run or later, those cards are much rarer than the Cycle Matty. Granted Matty is a HOFer and it is one of the most beautiful cards in the set, I still feel that the premium placed on it is way out of line with rarity...it is just a demand premium and will go down eventually.

The list of rarity changes with new finds but here is what I have been working with lately independent of advertising...

Hobby no stats #1
Wilhelm suffered #2
Wallace no cap 1 line stats #4
Joss #4
Moran stray #5
Wallace no cap 2 line stats #6
Hobby no cin. name correct #7
Gray stats #8
Wilhelm suffe ed #9
Hobby no cin. name incorrect #10

Now, there has been some flux between #4-10 and some people might argue that some others should be included but these are my top ten and #1,2,3 are very very difficult.



Joshua

[Tcards-Please]

Using just the pop report from SGC, it appears that the Cycle Mathewson is more rare than the Wilhelm "suffered" version. Although any Wilhelm will be harder to find than the Mathewson. It would be great to know what the pop report is from the other grading companies to do a comparison. Here are the totals from SGC:

Total Mathewson's graded: 232
Total Cycle Mathewsons: 11

Total Wilhelms graded: 54
Total Cycle & Hassan: 12

So using that as a guide, it appears that the "suffered" version shows up in 1 out of every 4 (just a little more than 4) cards on average. On the other hand, the Mathewson Cycle appears 1 out of every 20 cards. Also, more "suffered" have already been graded than Mathewson's error.

Joshua: I see you didn't include the Mathewson in your list. Do you think that all those you have in your top 10 are more difficult to find????

Andrew, I agree that it is suspicious that a person with little feedback placed a high bid, but it can only go as high as the next highest bid. That said, you had two different people place bids over $2500 on that card. Don't you find it even more strange that from all the talk on this board from people claiming that they wouldn't pay more than a normal premium for a cycle, yet the price of that card kept going up past the "normal" premium?

That is just my take. I'm certainly not as knowledgeable as most on this topic, but it is interesting to read.

r/
Frank

[lentel]

Originally Posted by T's please

Using just the pop report from SGC, it appears that the Cycle Mathewson is more rare than the Wilhelm "suffered" version. Although any Wilhelm will be harder to find than the Mathewson. It would be great to know what the pop report is from the other grading companies to do a comparison. Here are the totals from SGC:

Total Mathewson's graded: 232
Total Cycle Mathewsons: 11

Total Wilhelms graded: 54
Total Cycle & Hassan: 12

So using that as a guide, it appears that the "suffered" version shows up in 1 out of every 4 (just a little more than 4) cards on average. On the other hand, the Mathewson Cycle appears 1 out of every 20 cards. Also, more "suffered" have already been graded than Mathewson's error.

Joshua: I see you didn't include the Mathewson in your list. Do you think that all those you have in your top 10 are more difficult to find????

Andrew, I agree that it is suspicious that a person with little feedback placed a high bid, but it can only go as high as the next highest bid. That said, you had two different people place bids over $2500 on that card. Don't you find it even more strange that from all the talk on this board from people claiming that they wouldn't pay more than a normal premium for a cycle, yet the price of that card kept going up past the "normal" premium?

That is just my take. I'm certainly not as knowledgeable as most on this topic, but it is interesting to read.

r/
Frank

I dont think all the sgc wilhelm hassans are suffered versions. They list the hassans more than once and they specify the word suffered. A little misleading in the totals

[Mrc32]

Originally Posted by Wite3

The list of rarity changes with new finds but here is what I have been working with lately independent of advertising...

Hobby no stats #1
Wilhelm suffered #2
Wallace no cap 1 line stats #4
Joss #4
Moran stray #5
Wallace no cap 2 line stats #6
Hobby no cin. name correct #7
Gray stats #8
Wilhelm suffe ed #9
Hobby no cin. name incorrect #10

Now, there has been some flux between #4-10 and some people might argue that some others should be included but these are my top ten and #1,2,3 are very very difficult.



Joshua

WOW- I love this thread.

So are you suggesting that the Joss is the 4th most scare card in the master set? Wow. I had no idea.

I would like to ask, when you say scare, do you mean total population of the card (either on the market or in collections) or do you mean frequency that a card comes up for sale?

[Matt]

Rarity, has to do with populations; scarcity has to do with how often a card is available.

Using the SGC numbers, it seems the Mathewson variation is 2nd to only Hobby no stats as far as T205 variation rarity.

Originally Posted by Wite3

A few things first...Andrew has bought many T205s in the past year but I am fairly certain, I now own one of the largest and most diverse t205 collections. I have also, watched, charted, and handled thousands of t205s in the last decade. In the past 15 years I have put one near master set together missing only a Drum and a Hobby no stats, and am very close on a second set (minus three cards). Andrews set and cards are certainly in better condition than mine but I love my beaters.

In no way shape or form will I arguee this with Josh. I have only been activly building my set for a yr now but I want to create a very unique set with as many not so common backs as possible. Is it going to be worth more? Maybe but Maybe not. Its more of a challenge to do this otherwise I may be done to quick and burn out.

Also if a Joss Cycle sold for just under $1200 then a Matty should be just as cheap right

[Misunderestimated]

I think that this card's "value" increased exponentially the moment it was added as a variation to the PSA set Registry. Whether that is as it should be is another question entirely. ....

Originally Posted by marcdelpercio

Just out of curiosity Andrew, why are you so avidly collecting Cycle and AB backed T205's if you don't feel that they are any scarcer or more valuable than Piedmonts?

P.S. At your suggestion, I did a few minutes of research and checked recent sales on eBay. The last (and only recent) AB card to sell was this common:

http://cgi.ebay.com/1911-T205-Americ...item255639dba2

Note that none of the other SGC 70's of common players on eBay now even have an ASKING price of more than $275.

Mark I absolutly love the AB and Cycle backed cards, plus since most are just collecting fronts for a set I want a unique set that is made of a majority of harder to find backs that "seem" to cost the same as normalls. Just because they aren't as common as some of ther others don't seem to make them worth more. I guess if they are worth more then I pretty much have stolen all of the ones I own in regards to price.

I think they are neat and since I have seemed to get these "costly cards" at such a cheap rate then I am very happy. As far as the auction for BMW cards I do not believe for one minute that some dummy paid that much for that card. You ever follow his sales on crap like that. I think he does it to make it look like he is selling for the most money. I guess this would make the one I got for $65 worth about $300-350 right? I got mine about 4 months ago via Ebay. The Barger should be worth about $600 due to being a POP 1 and grade then. Man 7 times what I paid

I guess we could argue all day about this and we all are probably right due to timeframes and purchases.

I think the Matty Should be in #3 or #4 spot on the list.