Poll - The Stock Market and Vintage Sales

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I mean there's a lot of play in it, but what you say makes sense. So is someone in that range going to change their buying habits because of a bad month on Wall Street, do you think?

It seems like most here are conflating the stock market with retirement portfolios. But that only makes up about half of the market allocation. A significant percentage of the value of the stock market is also used for annual compensation of the workforce. Especially in the tech space. Out here in Silicon Valley, RSUs, ESPPs, stock options, and annual bonuses often make up about half of an employee's total compensation (and sometimes significantly more). When the markets take a hit, people make less money. I just sold about 250 shares of company stock last month. Today, those shares are down about $100 per share compared to what they were at when I sold them. Had I waited another month, that would have resulted in me having $25k less to spend on cardboard, vacations, Hello Kitty toys for the daughter, and designer handbags for the wife.

When there is less money to go around, less money goes around. It's simple economics.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Snowman

It seems like most here are conflating the stock market with retirement portfolios. But that only makes up about half of the market allocation. A significant percentage of the value of the stock market is also used for annual compensation of the workforce. Especially in the tech space. Out here in Silicon Valley, RSUs, ESPPs, stock options, and annual bonuses often make up about half of an employee's total compensation (and sometimes significantly more). When the markets take a hit, people make less money. I just sold about 250 shares of company stock last month. Today, those shares are down about $100 per share compared to what they were at when I sold them. Had I waited another month, that would have resulted in me having $25k less to spend on cardboard, vacations, Hello Kitty toys for the daughter, and designer handbags for the wife.

When there is less money to go around, less money goes around. It's simple economics.

The poll asks about what individual people answering it will do so they presumably know their own financial situation better than you do. Not everyone on here may have as much dependence on the stock market as you apparently have.

[Exhibitman]

Don’t forget the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip.

[Snapolit1]

Don’t mean to be flip, but regardless of your personal situation, wouldn’t you be an idiot not to take into consideration major stock market losses in any type of major purchase? Take real estate. Are you going to tell me that you aren’t going to factor into your purchase of a home the idea that many other people who may be potential purchasers may be pulling back their horns a little because of anxiety about falling stock values? Wouldn’t it be just dumb not to factor that into your thought process?

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Snowman

It seems like most here are conflating the stock market with retirement portfolios. But that only makes up about half of the market allocation. A significant percentage of the value of the stock market is also used for annual compensation of the workforce. Especially in the tech space. Out here in Silicon Valley, RSUs, ESPPs, stock options, and annual bonuses often make up about half of an employee's total compensation (and sometimes significantly more). When the markets take a hit, people make less money. I just sold about 250 shares of company stock last month. Today, those shares are down about $100 per share compared to what they were at when I sold them. Had I waited another month, that would have resulted in me having $25k less to spend on cardboard, vacations, Hello Kitty toys for the daughter, and designer handbags for the wife.

When there is less money to go around, less money goes around. It's simple economics.

I would guess the percentage of collectors of whom a significant portion of their (non-retirement)income comes from the stock market is tiny and insignificant. It wouldn't move the needle on this poll. Most people just don't fall into that category.

[BioCRN]

All musings aside, there is a non-insignificant number of board users saying market conditions will influence or have a possibility of influencing their vintage purchases.

Roughly 1/3rd consider themselves exposed and 1/5th in danger.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by BioCRN

All musings aside, there is a non-insignificant number of board users saying market conditions will influence or have a possibility of influencing their vintage purchases.



Roughly 1/3rd consider themselves exposed and 1/5th in danger.

Yep, just like there is a significant number who won't be affected. It's almost like everyone's situation is unique.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Yep, just like there is a significant number who won't be affected. It's almost like everyone's situation is unique.

That’s definitely part of it.

I think the other part is that we’re not affected until we are. And sometimes it takes a bit to get there.

Someone today who proclaims to be indifferent tomorrow could change their tune when more bad stuff happens.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by raulus

That’s definitely part of it.

I think the other part is that we’re not affected until we are. And sometimes it takes a bit to get there.

Someone today who proclaims to be indifferent tomorrow could change their tune when more bad stuff happens.

Certainly true. But I've lived through a lot of recessions, and really never has the stock market affected my spending. So a situation where it would have an affect would need to be so much longer and more significant than the current situation, that it makes sense many people feel the way we do.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

I would guess the percentage of collectors of whom a significant portion of their (non-retirement)income comes from the stock market is tiny and insignificant. It wouldn't move the needle on this poll. Most people just don't fall into that category.

Ai disagrees, FWIW.
While it's difficult to pinpoint an exact percentage of employees with stock-based compensation (SBC), nearly three-quarters (72%) of companies offer some form of equity compensation to certain employees, up from 65% in 2021. This suggests that a significant portion of the workforce is receiving some form of stock compensation.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Ai disagrees, FWIW.

While it's difficult to pinpoint an exact percentage of employees with stock-based compensation (SBC), nearly three-quarters (72%) of companies offer some form of equity compensation to certain employees, up from 65% in 2021. This suggests that a significant portion of the workforce is receiving some form of stock compensation.

So "some form" is the same as "significant portion of their income?" Those aren't the same to me. Maybe AI needs to do better.

Receiving some form of stock compensation doesn't mean an employee's available spending is dependent on that compensation either.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

So "some form" is the same as "significant portion of their income?" Those aren't the same to me. Maybe AI needs to do better.

Receiving some form of stock compensation doesn't mean an employee's available spending is dependent on that compensation either.

Depends on which cohort of the hobby you're talking about. There's a fairly large percentage of collectors who only collect low value cards and whose purchasing decisions have almost no effect on the broader market. But if we're talking about how the card market as a whole might fare during an economic downturn, then we have to look at the cohort of buyers that are purchasing cards of significant value. And those cards are mostly being purchased by people in their 40s and up with good jobs that often include some form of significant compensation through company stocks or by retired collectors with large bank accounts. In other words, it may not be a large percentage of the hobby as a whole that receives a significant chunk of their income from stocks, but it's certainly one of the most impactful cohorts with respect to pricing fluctuations across the market.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Depends on which cohort of the hobby you're talking about. There's a fairly large percentage of collectors who only collect low value cards and whose purchasing decisions have almost no effect on the broader market. But if we're talking about how the card market as a whole might fare during an economic downturn, then we have to look at the cohort of buyers that are purchasing cards of significant value. And those cards are mostly being purchased by people in their 40s and up with good jobs that often include some form of significant compensation through company stocks or by retired collectors with large bank accounts. In other words, it may not be a large percentage of the hobby as a whole that receives a significant chunk of their income from stocks, but it's certainly one of the most impactful cohorts with respect to pricing fluctuations across the market.

It's an interesting question to consider. I'd love to see a poll. But I suspect the number who are actually using stocks as a significant/major source of income (and aren't retired) isn't that high. But who knows? 40s and up with good jobs doesn't scream "relying on stock dividends/sales" to me. I'd guess those people tend to use salary compensation for cash flow, and investments for future cash flow. I know I'm in that group of 40s and up with a good job, and I never touch a penny from my investments and live off my salary. All my card money comes from this income stream. Maybe I'm in the minority of the group of 40s and up with a good job. :shrug: But given the responses here, I don't believe I am.

[jingram058]

I stayed in the Navy for 26 years, and I get a darned good pension, supplemented by modest Social Security and a state pension. I guess any or all of these could be cut at some point, but our house and new cars are paid for. No bills other than the ones you have to have. I can afford to buy expensive pre-war cards, but I already have the ones I really want, and I can't see spending that kind of money for cards, and that's not incumbent on the stock market or the economy.