Poll: Final Hammer Price - 1914 BN Babe Ruth vs the 1952 Rosen Topps Mantle

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Some goalpost movement is inevitable as the hobby changes, but moving them to the 50 yard line as they seem to have done is ridiculous.

Ya. Now PSA is lumping in POOR, FAIR, GOOD, AND VG cards all into PSA 1 holders in order to make room for the EXMT cards they're slabbing as 4s. I honestly thought they would have corrected this by now. It's really baffling.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Ya. Now PSA is lumping in POOR, FAIR, GOOD, AND VG cards all into PSA 1 holders in order to make room for the EXMT cards they're slabbing as 4s. I honestly thought they would have corrected this by now. It's really baffling.

I have heard, and no idea of truth, that they are using machine grading in the first instance on larger subs which I guess grades low because it deducts for trivial specks and the like on vintage; and that some graders don't bother with an independent assessment.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I have heard, and no idea of truth, that they are using machine grading in the first instance on larger subs which I guess grades low because it deducts for trivial specks and the like on vintage; and that some graders don't bother with an independent assessment.

This isn't actually true. It's just a rumor going around Blowout from people who don't understand the capabilities. They're not using Genamint to grade cards at all.

[Snowman]

Another interesting question worth pondering is what would the SGC 9.5 Mantle sell for today if it were on the block?

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Another interesting question worth pondering is what would the SGC 9.5 Mantle sell for today if it were on the block?

Good question. I think 10-13 million, not much of a drop if at all.

My reasoning is that I do not believe any of the 3 psa 10s are coming to sale anytime soon. This was the best of the best in a sale forum.

[bcbgcbrcb]

Based on what happened with the Ruth card last night, the next ultra high grade 52T Mantle price should be way down as well as the next T206 Wagner. Thoughts on this?

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

Based on what happened with the Ruth card last night, the next ultra high grade 52T Mantle price should be way down as well as the next T206 Wagner. Thoughts on this?

This card was purchased for about $5mm less than two years ago. Last night it sells for $7.2mm - a $2.2mm (44%) increase in two years, which is 22% per year. How on god’s green earth is that result a “failure”? It isn’t. Instead, there was a ton of hype and the result did not meet the hype. But the result was very good. The hype was BS. The BN Ruth was worth $5mm two years ago. Now it’s worth $7.2mm. Seems to me, that is pretty darn positive

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

This isn't actually true. It's just a rumor going around Blowout from people who don't understand the capabilities. They're not using Genamint to grade cards at all.

Your source?

[raulus]

Welp!

$7.2M, with the juice.

The crash is here!!

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by raulus

Welp!

$7.2M, with the juice.

The crash is here!!

Let the spin begin.

[MACollector]

I don't think it's a sign of a crash - the estimate of over $10m never made sense to me. Prices are down from 21/22 and the seller paid $6m supposedly to buy it back in 2021. $7.2m isn't bad. Not sure why it would have sold for 2x a price when cards were peak covid heights...

[chadeast]

I thought that not selling the other BN lots was an odd choice (high reserves not met). It seems unlikely that they'll get more in an auction without the star attraction to carry them along. The reserve does help to explain why they were sold in a lot, I think. The seller was not prepared to sell the non-Ruths for what they saw as "low" final bids.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by MACollector

I don't think it's a sign of a crash - the estimate of over $10m never made sense to me. Prices are down from 21/22 and the seller paid $6m supposedly to buy it back in 2021. $7.2m isn't bad. Not sure why it would have sold for 2x a price when cards were peak covid heights...

I think some people feel elite cards are their own submarket and just keep going up independent of the overall card market.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Your source?

Experience from my line of work and hearing Nat Turner expressly state that they are not using it to grade cards in multiple podcast interviews.

It's not possible to grade cards with the type of scans that PSA uses. No matter how high-def the images are. You need to have a machine that takes numerous images from every different angle with light reflected at different angles as well, and then convolve those images to create a topographic map like TAG Grading does in order to even begin to grade cards. And it's just too big of a hill to climb when it comes to vintage cards because of the surfaces.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Experience from my line of work and hearing Nat Turner expressly state that they are not using it to grade cards in multiple podcast interviews.

It's not possible to grade cards with the type of scans that PSA uses. No matter how high-def the images are. You need to have a machine that takes numerous images from every different angle with light reflected at different angles as well, and then convolve those images to create a topographic map like TAG Grading does in order to even begin to grade cards. And it's just too big of a hill to climb when it comes to vintage cards because of the surfaces.

OK thanks for explaining. i'll check to see if there are any sources for guys saying otherwise. I don't necessarily trust PSA itself to be truthful, place more stock in your views informed by your expertise.

So do you think graders just have no clue how to grade vintage? Lots of stories, from reliable sources, about long time dealers getting absolutely screwed on subs and getting on average 2-3 grades lower than they expected even allowing for some tighter grading.

[Yoda]

SGC should be ashamed at giving the BN Babe a 3, particularly with their supposed new grading standards. IMO it should be a 1.5, maybe a 2 on a sunny day. Me thinks there were serious political forces at play when Ruth was in the grading room.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Yoda

SGC should be ashamed at giving the BN Babe a 3, particularly with their supposed new grading standards. IMO it should be a 1.5, maybe a 2 on a sunny day. Me thinks there were serious political forces at play when Ruth was in the grading room.

I am sure Dave had his reasons, but we can only guess what they were.

[mrreality68]

Buy the card not the grade

But someone with the money will be buying the Card with that grade.

And super rare but a 3 will sell more than a lower grade on that same exact card slab

[ClementeFanOh]

At the risk of being viewed as a heretic, I’ll go back to the actual topic (I know, I know, such a horrible thing)…Card sits at 5.75 million with no bids since the 29th of November. I still think it tops the Mick. Trent King

[Hankphenom]

As far as the grade is concerned, TPG's do grade "on the curve," don't they, with fragile issues like T205s not held to the same standard as T206s and the like? If so, that might explain the grade, which otherwise seems incredibly generous.

[BRoberts]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

As far as the grade is concerned, TPG's do grade "on the curve," don't they, with fragile issues like T205s not held to the same standard as T206s and the like?

No.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

As far as the grade is concerned, TPG's do grade "on the curve," don't they, with fragile issues like T205s not held to the same standard as T206s and the like? If so, that might explain the grade, which otherwise seems incredibly generous.

Originally Posted by BRoberts

No.

It seems to me that the curve, if there is one, is based not on which set the card is from but on who the submitter is.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

It seems to me that the curve, if there is one, is based not on which set the card is from but on who the submitter is.

Animal Farm all the way.