1952T Mantle price drops

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by DocScoot

Separate from the short terms ups or downs, how many of you worry about the longer term prices given the quite disturbing downward trend in the popularity of baseball in general? Will the next generation of collectors want any of these cards? It's hard for me to look at the trend in World Series viewership numbers and not get depressed. Game 2 was down to around 8 million viewers, less than half of a mediocre regular season NFL game. I realize with vastly different numbers of games per season it's not apples to apples, but still...

Baseball set attendance records this year. You wouldn’t know from the old men complaining on this board though.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Baseball set attendance records this year. You wouldn’t know from the old men complaining on this board though.

Is this data wrong? Attendance seems to have receded over time. https://www.statista.com/statistics/...lb-since-2006/

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by G1911

Is this data wrong? Attendance seems to have receded over time. https://www.statista.com/statistics/...lb-since-2006/

Guess there a bunch of ways to measure these things.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...spike-30-years

https://www.wbsc.org/en/news/basebal...se-in-20-years

[DocScoot]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Guess there a bunch of ways to measure these things.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...spike-30-years

https://www.wbsc.org/en/news/basebal...se-in-20-years

Those are MLB propaganda articles bragging about record setting one-year increases relative to the pandemic years (which they don't mention). I take it you're not a data scientist in your day job?

And for the record, I wasn't predicting a drop in the card market, I was asking for folks' opinions on the extent to which overall baseball popularity (which is objectively on a downward trend when you take more than a one year view) is strongly coupled to the card market value. I don't have a strong opinion one way or the other on this question.

[Snapolit1]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybr...vertisers/amp/

No doubt more propaganda.

[DocScoot]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybr...vertisers/amp/

No doubt more propaganda.

My favorite quote from this article (typo is theirs, not mine) had to be “I was is unable to independently verify the totals as source data is not within the report.” :-) As a lifelong baseball fanatic, I do hope you are right and I am wrong, so honestly I’m routing for your side of this discussion! Makes me very sad to think baseball popularity is on the decline, and I’d be thrilled if the article you shared is correct. Though I have no clue (and this article doesn’t really clarify) how advertisers measure value, and if it really has anything to do with the actual popularity or engagement with the sport.

[Fred]

The price of a '52 Mantle in "8" grade dropping doesn't affect me because that card in that condition is so far out of my collecting budget stratosphere that it means nothing.

What would be interesting to see is if this trickles down to the lower grades. If 1s and 2s are impacted by similar percentage drops, then that would be an interesting correlation. In that case, my guess would be the entire card market is dropping back. As I always mention in these threads, I couldn't care less because it's card board and not part of an "investment" portfolio (to me).

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Fred

The price of a '52 Mantle in "8" grade dropping doesn't affect me because that card in that condition is so far out of my collecting budget stratosphere that it means nothing.

What would be interesting to see is if this trickles down to the lower grades. If 1s and 2s are impacted by similar percentage drops, then that would be an interesting correlation. In that case, my guess would be the entire card market is dropping back. As I always mention in these threads, I couldn't care less because it's card board and not part of an "investment" portfolio (to me).

The second screen in Ryan's post are PSA 2 numbers.

[Fred]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

The second screen in Ryan's post are PSA 2 numbers.

Phil - Thank you.

Second screen shot in post# 16

Quite the drop in a short period of time for PSA2 52T Mantles. I'm guessing some would like to believe that the cards sold earlier (higher $$) were just nicer examples of a "2" grade.

So, what's next?

Are Ruths, Cobbs, Wagners, WoJos and Mattys dropping this much? Sorry, I don't follow these trends too closely.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by DocScoot

And for the record, I wasn't predicting a drop in the card market, I was asking for folks' opinions on the extent to which overall baseball popularity (which is objectively on a downward trend when you take more than a one year view) is strongly coupled to the card market value. I don't have a strong opinion one way or the other on this question.

I don't think collectors necessarily feel the need to watch baseball so much as they appreciate it. Speaking for myself, I almost never watch MLB games anymore. I might catch an inning or two of a few playoff games here or there, but I haven't sat down to watch a full game in decades. I do watch highlights with some degree of regularity, and I do pay attention to player stats throughout the season, but that's about it. I simply don't have time to watch baseball games, and even if I did, I could find a thousand other things I'd rather be doing. However, I watch dozens of full NBA and NFL games every year. I even watch full soccer matches during the world cup. But my collection is probably ~60% baseball and ~40% basketball, with less than 1% other sports. There's just something nostalgic about baseball cards that other sports don't offer. I'll continue to collect them even if I never watch another game of baseball on TV in my entire life (a fairly high likelihood).

[DocScoot]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I don't think collectors necessarily feel the need to watch baseball so much as they appreciate it. Speaking for myself, I almost never watch MLB games anymore. I might catch an inning or two of a few playoff games here or there, but I haven't sat down to watch a full game in decades. I do watch highlights with some degree of regularity, and I do pay attention to player stats throughout the season, but that's about it. I simply don't have time to watch baseball games, and even if I did, I could find a thousand other things I'd rather be doing. However, I watch dozens of full NBA and NFL games every year. I even watch full soccer matches during the world cup. But my collection is probably ~60% baseball and ~40% basketball, with less than 1% other sports. There's just something nostalgic about baseball cards that other sports don't offer. I'll continue to collect them even if I never watch another game of baseball on TV in my entire life (a fairly high likelihood).

Thanks for this input! I believe my situation is similar to what you describe, for me the love of the game has become more about the history and the nostalgia than it is about continuing to watch every game. Though I did watch quite a bit more this past season, and probably was part of the increase in popularity this past season referred to by the previous poster (pitch clock change, crazy buzz around Ohtani, and several other factors also had a lot to do with that bump I'd assume, will be interesting to see if it continues). But I still worry that you and I are holdovers from perhaps having had parents and grandparents who loved, and did watch baseball more than any other sport. I wonder if this nostalgia will still be there for our kids and grandkids. I very much hope it is, otherwise my collectibles will just go to waste

[Exhibitman]

Please, let’s not over analyze this. I don’t care about the World Series if my teams aren’t playing. The two in there are not known for their national fan bases. It’s a who cares series everywhere except Dallas and Phoenix. Punch in the Yankees or Dodgers or Cubs or Red Sox instead and viewership will go right up.

[DocScoot]

Originally Posted by G1911

Is this data wrong? Attendance seems to have receded over time. https://www.statista.com/statistics/...lb-since-2006/

The data I've seen shows the numbers are fairly level around 70 million tickets per season for every year since the mid to late 90s. The numbers are up this year compared with the past few pandemic years, but things have been fairly consistent year to year. But that's despite pretty significantly growing urban populations and overall population, while attendance in other sports has grown quite a bit during a comparable period. Overall viewership however is way down. World Series games drew over 30 million viewers per game in the late 70s, down to under 10 million/game this year.

[DocScoot]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Baseball set attendance records this year. You wouldn’t know from the old men complaining on this board though.

Am I an old man on the forum? I'm curious how old you think I am, and also why you would even think that's relevant to the data which is pretty easily quantified and not exactly subjective?

Overall viewership is drastically down from where it peaked in the 70s when baseball was still the most popular sport in the country. Now it's barely top three. Attendance numbers are up this year only compared to the pandemic years, and are down compared with every year from 2004 through 2017. But that's just a measure of local fanbases (plus urban population growth), not overall popularity of the sport which I would guess will be a better indicator of the collector market moving forward. That last part's just an opinion, but the overall stats on the declining popularity of baseball are just facts, like it or not.

[visualplane]

Originally Posted by DocScoot

Am I an old man on the forum? I'm curious how old you think I am, and also why you would even think that's relevant to the data which is pretty easily quantified and not exactly subjective?

Overall viewership is drastically down from where it peaked in the 70s when baseball was still the most popular sport in the country. Now it's barely top three. Attendance numbers are up this year only compared to the pandemic years, and are down compared with every year from 2004 through 2017. But that's just a measure of local fanbases (plus urban population growth), not overall popularity of the sport which I would guess will be a better indicator of the collector market moving forward. That last part's just an opinion, but the overall stats on the declining popularity of baseball are just facts, like it or not.

Why is this guy arguing with everyone?