Players not yet eligible for the HOF

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Tabe

He's one of those guys that WAR loves for no discernible reason. Ex: 1982. 7 homers, 72 runs, 413 slugging - and he gets a 4.6 WAR. That's not even a good season let alone nearly All-Star but WAR thinks it is.

Also, he was washed up at 35 and played just 12 full seasons.

If you like Hernandez, put in John Olerud, too.

You love to cherry-pick the data. In 1982, Hernandez finished in the top 10 in the NL in batting average with .299 and was 3rd in the NL in on base percentage with .397. Schmidt led the majors with .403. Hernandez led the Majors with 19 intentional walks. His OPS was .810 and his OPS+ was 127. He was top 10 in the NL in doubles (33). He won a Gold Glove. This is how he accumulated WAR.

Olerud finished in top 10 in MVP voting once. Hernandez had 3 top 5 finishes including an MVP.

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

You love to cherry-pick the data. In 1982, Hernandez finished in the top 10 in the NL in batting average with .299 and was 3rd in the NL in on base percentage with .397. Schmidt led the majors with .403. Hernandez led the Majors with 19 intentional walks. His OPS was .810 and his OPS+ was 127. He was top 10 in the NL in doubles (33). He won a Gold Glove. This is how he accumulated WAR.

Olerud finished in top 10 in MVP voting once. Hernandez had 3 top 5 finishes including an MVP.

It's not really cherry picking. There is no time or metric or era by which you can twist a 1B hitting .299 with 7 homers into being a good year. None. Go look at Al Oliver in 1982 and try and tell me that Hernandez was even close as WAR says he was.

And you, again, went right back to Gold Gloves. For a 1B. One of Olerud's greatest talents was eliminating errors from other players, something ignored by Gold Glove voters and dWAR. He consistently cut down throwing errors when joining teams. But, again, who cares? It's 1B. It's like bragging about Jim Kaat's Gold Gloves as a pitcher.

Olerud had essentially the same total WAR in nearly the same AB. He hit 18+ homers seven times - Hernandez did it once. Olerud led his league in OPS and OPS+ and hit .350 or higher twice. Hernandez never did any of that.

I don't think Olerud belongs in the Hall. Hernandez was a fine player who had an excellent career. But he doesn't belong in the Hall either.

[brass_rat]

Somewhat related to this discussion, I enjoyed this blog post:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-fred...3000-hit-club/

I like this adjustment as well:

"ZiPS actually has a milestone algorithm I wrote some years ago that reduces playing time less as a player nears a significant milestone, so the projection system now has Freeman more likely to get to 3,000 than to fall short, at 53%."

[Peter_Spaeth]

Reviving, with modifications from 2023 or new entrants showing in CAPS. These are by RC class.
1995 Beltran (maybe) (LIKELY)
1997 Beltre (lock)(IN)
1999 Sabathia (likely)(IN)
2000 Cabrera (lock)
2001 Utley (unlikely)
2001 Ichiro (lock)(IN)
2001 Pujols (lock)
2002 Greinke (likely)
2002 Votto (likely)(LOCK)
2002 Mauer (likely)(IN)
2003 Cano (unlikely)
2004 Molina (likely)
2005 Cruz (unlikely)
2005 Verlander (lock)
2008 Scherzer (lock)
2008 Kershaw (lock)
2010 Posey (likely)
2010 Stanton (unlikely)
2010 Kenley Jansen (unlikely)
2011 Craig Kimbrel (unlikely)
2011 Altuve (likely)(LOCK)
2011 Sale (MAYBE)
2011 Freeman (likely)(LOCK)
2011 Trout (lock)
2011 Goldschmidt (likely)(LOCK)
2012 Harper (likely)(LOCK)
2013 Arenado (likely)
2013 Machado (too soon to tell)(LIKELY)
2013 Cole (likely)
2014 Betts (likely)(LOCK)
2014 DeGrom (unlikely)
2014 J Ramirez (too soon to tell)(LIKELY)
2014 Bogaerts (unlikely)
2015 Lindor (too soon to tell)(LIKELY)
2015 Correa (too soon to tell)
2016 T Turner (UNLIKELY)
2016 Seager (UNLIKELY)
2017 Judge (LOCK)
2017 Bregman (TOO SOON TO TELL)

Thoughts? Additions?

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Reviving, with modifications from 2023 showing in CAPS. These are by RC class.
1995 Beltran (maybe) (LIKELY)
1997 Beltre (lock)(IN)
1999 Sabathia (likely)(IN)
2000 Cabrera (lock)
2001 Utley (unlikely)
2001 Ichiro (lock)(IN)
2001 Pujols (lock)
2002 Greinke (likely)
2002 Votto (likely)(LOCK)
2002 Mauer (likely)(IN)
2003 Cano (unlikely)
2004 Molina (likely)
2005 Cruz (unlikely)
2005 Verlander (lock)
2008 Scherzer (lock)
2008 Kershaw (lock)
2010 Posey (likely)
2010 Stanton (unlikely)
2010 Kenley Jansen (unlikely)
2011 Craig Kimbrel (unlikely)
2011 Altuve (likely)(LOCK)
2011 Freeman (likely)(LOCK)
2011 Trout (lock)
2011 Goldschmidt (likely)(LOCK)
2012 Harper (likely)(LOCK)
2013 Arenado (likely)
2013 Machado (too soon to tell)(LIKELY)
2013 Cole (likely)
2014 Betts (likely)(LOCK)
2014 DeGrom (unlikely)
2014 J Ramirez (too soon to tell)(LIKELY)
2014 Bogaerts (unlikely)
2015 Lindor (too soon to tell)(LIKELY)
2015 Correa (too soon to tell)
AND ADDING NEW ENTRANTS
2016 T Turner (unlikely)
2016 Seager (unlikely)
2017 Judge (LOCK)

Thoughts? Additions?

If you are including Turner and Seager you may want to include Bregman, especially with the year he is having.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

If you are including Turner and Seager you may want to include Bregman, especially with the year he is having.

Fair, will add him and my rating.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Relievers, I think Jansen (especially if he rights the ship this year) is about a pick 'em at this point.

Kimbrel's final few years are a complete enigma. His strikeout rate never faltered, his walk rate didn't increase yet he got shellacked. How can you be as unhittable as ever based on your K rate, and yet be incredibly hittable???

[Knightlax5]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Fair, will add him and my rating.

I know he is still a few years short but Ohanti likely needs to be included