Auction amounts - how high is high

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

I mean, maybe, but maybe not. There are kids in their 20s/30s who are obsessed with T206 cards and none of them ever saw any of those guys play. In fact, is there anyone on this board who ever saw any of the T206 subjects actually play a game? That would be impossible, I believe, just based on basic math.

Mantle isn't just a sports icon, hes a cultural icon. Kids today who are 12 years old and love baseball know who Mickey Mantle was. When they get older, they too will want a 1952 Mantle, most likely.

The T206 craze and Mantle both fall into the age 50-80 current group. Yes there will be some under 50 who will want those, but WAY WAY WAY less. From reading posts over the year almost all say my kids have no interest in my cards/collection. Yes there will be some, but not close to the numbers of those who grew up in the 60's, 70's & 80's that is responsible for Mantle & T206 collecting.

That HUGE group is going to go away. You or someone can do a Poll on here and see how many under 50 "set collectors", etc there are, my guess a bare minimum. Again I'd say maybe 20% of NET54. Maybe.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Shoeless Moe

The T206 craze and Mantle both fall into the age 50-80 current group. Yes there will be some under 50 who will want those, but WAY WAY WAY less. From reading posts over the year almost all say my kids have no interest in my cards/collection. Yes there will be some, but not close to the numbers of those who grew up in the 60's, 70's & 80's that is responsible for Mantle & T206 collecting.

That HUGE group is going to go away. You or someone can do a Poll on here and see how many under 50 "set collectors", etc there are, my guess a bare minimum. Again I'd say maybe 20% of NET54. Maybe.

Set Collecting has gone the way of the dinosaur, agree. However I know more and more younger people that are collecting high grade 50’s and 60’s Star Cards, Mantle is always top of their list. We are talking 20-40 age range. To me there is no comparison between set builders and Star Collectors in High Grade. They want the money cards not the commons.

This is post has post has prob 5-10 guys seriously thinking about trying to join the 52 Mantle Club

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

Set Collecting has gone the way of the dinosaur, agree. However I know more and more younger people that are collecting high grade 50’s and 60’s Star Cards, Mantle is always top of their list. We are talking 20-40 age range. To me there is no comparison between set builders and Star Collectors in High Grade. They want the money cards not the commons.

This is post has post has prob 5-10 guys seriously thinking about trying to join the 52 Mantle Club

Yes, and it was COVID that brought the surge of new collectors, but how many will lose money because they thought it was easy money and then drop out, how many will just lose interest because they arn't seeing returns quick enough and they will drop out, and others that got in will just lose interest. Yes some will be hooked, but I don't see there being a lot. Right now the dust has somewhat settled, and people are still overpaying. ALL collectors buying now are over-paying. You have to if you don't have the patience. But the boom is over. It's still much greater then when it started because currently there are more bodies in, but they will slowly dissipate through getting older and death or lack of interest and fast money. I'd say in 5-10 years you could see just about everything at or near 2019 prices. Barring another worldwide deadly outbreak which is always possible.

[Shoeless Moe]

and consider this.....I'm assuming must of you have go to Nationals. The recent ones I've been too I'd say the vast majority of buyers/shoppers are over 50. Yes there are youngsters, but nowhere near the amount of over 50's.

And who sets up selling these nice cards?

I'd say 95% of those with tables are guys over 50.

Where will those tables be when they are all gone in 30 years.

Covid was the Perfect Storm, hit right when the most collectors had their most money, and drew in new people who wanted a slice of the pie.

The Collector Pool will thin greatly.....just give it a week or 2 and there will be a thread about some longtime collector who died. There is one every other week if you have not noticed.

[mrreality68]

The hardest part of the price surge is on the true collectors. Those of us that are true collectors that want to buy, hold, and enjoy cards can only buy less because we have to pay alot more than we used to so we can buy cards but buy less than we would have.
For those who are investors if they have just been buying, selling, and flipping cards they have been doing very well for how much longer not sure. The key is what they are buying and what price point.
As many said the High End Hofer's and famous players and in the better grades are all doing well and should continue to do so.
However, those same cards in the middle to lower grades that have been spiking up in prices may not stay that way. Many mentioned in other threads that some cards/series have been slowing down or just staying steady.
The collectibles, the ticket stubs, photos and the likes have been spiking dramatically and those may have the biggest risk for down size.

But as many mentioned I believe even if the card market slides backwards it will just move forward again after as it always does.

Based on the popularity and attendance of regional and National Card show I think there is a great pipeline of youth getting into the collecting business.

[Touch'EmAll]

There are a lot of relatively new collectors - kids and collectors in their 20 - 40's.

These new collectors are probably more into modern cards. How many LeBron and Mike Trout cards can one continue to collect as the decades roll by?

At some point, they will want something new to them - vintage ! As collectors age, mature and discretionary income increases, there are going to be A LOT of these collectors move to vintage. Once us "oldies" pass away, the vintage market will not suffer and could actually boom to ever new dizzying heights.

Card collecting is here to stay. The population of this country is just going up and up and up - more collectors as time passes. Demand will increase. They are only so many nice cards of Cobb, Ruth and the like.

[Shoeless Moe]

Originally Posted by Touch'EmAll

Card collecting is here to stay. The population of this country is just going up and up and up - more collectors as time passes. Demand will increase. They are only so many nice cards of Cobb, Ruth and the like.

Huh?

https://www.census.gov/library/stori...he-nation.html

and...

Population declined in 17 states in 2021, according to an annual report from the Pew Charitable Trusts Fiscal 50 project. A long-term trend of reduced growth rate appears to have been amplified by COVID-19 deaths and continued restrictions on immigration.

[Shoeless Moe]

Leon ran an age Poll on here back in 2010........if you fast forward those numbers adding 12 years to everyone.

76% of the board (those who answered that is) is over 50.

And since most of the youngsters collect the more modern stuff, and yes there will always be a few exceptions......but sorry those exceptions ain't sniffing 76% ...a very small amount of under 40 collects vintage.

And yes I know they all want a 52 Mantle and a Ruth Card Ticket or Photo, but no one is gonna care about Nap Lajoie and Tris Speaker and even Stan Musial let alone the 1000's of players not at their stature in 30 years.

LeBron & Trout will be their vintage.......and LeBron Junior & Ken Griffey the 4th will be there current.

[Touch'EmAll]

Yes, I do believe the population of this country is going to trend up.

Micro level, there may be odd years with decline. But lets look at the bigger picture:

USA population Year 2000 = 282.2 million

2005 = 295.5 million

2010 = 309.3 million

2015 = 320.7 million

2020 = 329.5 million