Auction amounts - how high is high

[Peter_Spaeth]

Far more people have failed trying to time the market than have succeeded. There's always a gloom and doom case how we're on the edge of disaster, I've seen one or more virtually every day for 15 years. IMO anyone acting like they know what's going to happen is just speculating like anyone else. Pundits have an astonishing history of being wrong..

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Far more people have failed trying to time the market than have succeeded. There's always a gloom and doom case how we're on the edge of disaster, I've seen one or more virtually every day for 15 years. IMO anyone acting like they know what's going to happen is just speculating like anyone else. Pundits have an astonishing history of being wrong.

I don't think it's doom and gloom to observe the likelihood the economy is likely to decline a bit further over the short term. One will never time it exactly, it will be fine in the long haul; but it's not doom and gloom to acknowledge present realities. The economy falters for periods; there's little reason to think the turn around is about to hit and reverse what's happening.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

I don't think it's doom and gloom to observe the likelihood the economy is likely to decline a bit further over the short term. One will never time it exactly, it will be fine in the long haul; but it's not doom and gloom to acknowledge present realities. The economy falters for periods; there's little reason to think the turn around is about to hit and reverse what's happening.

I've read enough absolutely wrong short as well as long term prognostications that I completely disregard all of them, no disrespect to you intended. As the joke goes, economists have successfully predicted five out of the last three recessions.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I've read enough absolutely wrong short as well as long term prognostications that I completely disregard all of them, no disrespect to you intended. As the joke goes, economists have successfully predicted five out of the last three recessions.

I'd agree if it's predicting recessions, but we are already in it. I have no idea when the next one will be, but I'd gamble on buying commodity items a bit later; recessions don't tend to fix right away.

The one guarantee is that any stock I buy will drop a couple points lower the next day after I try to time the bottom . This is why I don't have the stomach for day trading. When times are bad, I buy. When times are good, I hold and wait for the next big dip to buy more.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

I'd agree if it's predicting recessions, but we are already in it. I have no idea when the next one will be, but I'd gamble on buying commodity items a bit later; recessions don't tend to fix right away.

The one guarantee is that any stock I buy will drop a couple points lower the next day after I try to time the bottom . This is why I don't have the stomach for day trading. When times are bad, I buy. When times are good, I hold and wait for the next big dip to buy more.

After reading Eugene Fama and Bogle's book and one other whose name I forget, I became more and more convinced that investing a lot in individual stocks was problematic without inside information, and trying to time them even worse. I ignored my own advice not that long ago because I loved NVDA but geez it's been a disaster, and I don't want to keep buying the dip.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

After reading Eugene Fama and Bogle's book and one other whose name I forget, I became more and more convinced that investing a lot in individual stocks was problematic without inside information, and trying to time them even worse. I ignored my own advice not that long ago because I loved NVDA but geez it's been a disaster, and I don't want to keep buying the dip.

I put a whole lot more into S&P index funds than anything else. I think it's pretty hard to lose, doing properly managed index funds, if you're in it for the long haul and don't panic sell at every dip. Like your DOW chart, it generally goes up, up and up over long periods of time and serves as a good bet against inflation and my cash on hand losing money sitting in the bank every year. My plan is generally to just let that ride and sit until I really need it, which will be in a low income year where my tax rate will be lower. Individual shares scare me more, I'm careful, don't go too deep into anything and generally pick long-term good bets, which don't always work out at all. I don't know how the day traders don't have heart attacks. But what do I know, if I had it figured it out I'd be on a private island with my Wagner's

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by G1911

I put a whole lot more into S&P index funds than anything else. I think it's pretty hard to lose, doing properly managed index funds, if you're in it for the long haul and don't panic sell at every dip. Like your DOW chart, it generally goes up, up and up over long periods of time and serves as a good bet against inflation and my cash on hand losing money sitting in the bank every year. My plan is generally to just let that ride and sit until I really need it, which will be in a low income year where my tax rate will be lower. Individual shares scare me more, I'm careful, don't go too deep into anything and generally pick long-term good bets, which don't always work out at all. I don't know how the day traders don't have heart attacks. But what do I know, if I had it figured it out I'd be on a private island with my Wagner's

Warren Buffett’s advice is it’s a wise move to put all of your investment dollars in a well managed S&P fund.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

I put a whole lot more into S&P index funds than anything else. I think it's pretty hard to lose, doing properly managed index funds, if you're in it for the long haul and don't panic sell at every dip. Like your DOW chart, it generally goes up, up and up over long periods of time and serves as a good bet against inflation and my cash on hand losing money sitting in the bank every year. My plan is generally to just let that ride and sit until I really need it, which will be in a low income year where my tax rate will be lower. Individual shares scare me more, I'm careful, don't go too deep into anything and generally pick long-term good bets, which don't always work out at all. I don't know how the day traders don't have heart attacks. But what do I know, if I had it figured it out I'd be on a private island with my Wagner's

Just think of all the people who panic sold in the coronavirus crash. It's easier said than done to stay the course, but 100 years or more of history is on your side.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

economists have successfully predicted five out of the last three recessions.

I thought they went 9 for 4?

Look, no one knows the future; if they did, they sure as hell wouldn't be sharing the information. What we do know, empirically, is that cards have a 40+ year track record that has been overall nicely positive for long-term owners. The real challenge is deciding where to get out, if at all. I am certainly tempted to cash out some of the really big gainers but my longer term plan is to retire from my work and make liquidating my collection my retirement project, so there is no reason to worry about it now. Seeing the prices does make me feel like a friggin' genius for buying so many cards 30 years ago and not selling most of them (sure wish I had that NM Aaron RC back again), but I know it was far less acumen than happenstance and laziness, respectively, that drove me to buy and hold.

As far as eBay goes, when I see a card of a certain price point, I am reluctant to risk that money on eBay. The AHs do offer a certain amount of security in making the purchase, with the added bonus of not having expensive cards traipse up and down and across the country multiple times so that PSA or CSG can vouch for them...because fakes and scams are so prevalent on eBay; that must be the case since eBay is forcing this review step into the process, and why would they do that other than to combat rampant thievery? Ironic how I never really sweated $500 eBay purchases until eBay signaled that I should.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Far more people have failed trying to time the market than have succeeded. There's always a gloom and doom case how we're on the edge of disaster, I've seen one or more virtually every day for 15 years. IMO anyone acting like they know what's going to happen is just speculating like anyone else. Pundits have an astonishing history of being wrong..

Completely agree. Anyone that claims they know certain things about the current economic state are kidding themselves.