The 1952 Topps Mantle is Overpriced and Over-hyped

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by samosa4u

Before the pandemic, you could have purchased a PSA 1 example for around $10,000 USD and now it's worth around $40,000 USD, and that's around a 4x price increase in a short period of time. But a PSA 4 has only doubled in value. For example, if you had spent $30,000 USD on one before the pandemic, then today it's worth around $60,000 USD or so. If you had spent $100,000 USD on a PSA 6 before the pandemic, well now it's worth ... wait for it ... about the same price! Does that make any sense to you? You would think that if an ugly PSA 1 has gone up 4x, then a PSA 6 or a PSA 7 should be worth $400,000 - $600,000 USD, right? But nope, that's not how it works! The real winners here are those who kept their ugly ones, and of course, those who bought this card in PSA 8 (or higher) prior to the pandemic.

If you look at the entire market there has been a massive tightening up of prices between 1 and 5. Where a 5 used to be many multiples of a 1, now it may only be double. This has been market-wide in post war vintage HOF'ers and rookies.

[samosa4u]

https://www.ebay.com/itm/20394360578...sAAOSwZ21idKZP

This nice PSA 2.5 just went for $56,769 USD.

[pokerplyr80]

That was a nice 2.5, nicer than the 2 that went for 80k. Hard to explain the difference between the two, unless people just missed that ebay auction. But the centering was off and that isn't the type that would go for a huge premium for the grade.

The last 6 went for 150k 3 months ago, and centering was about as bad as it gets. If a nice, dead centered 6 came up today I would expect 300+. But those don't come around very often.

[samosa4u]

https://sports.ha.com/itm/baseball/1...ription-071515

Another recent sale - nice PSA 4 for $90,133 USD.

Alright, a PSA 6 is probably more than $100,000 USD , but no way quarter of a mill or higher. We'll see what the next one brings in.

The bottom line is that, instead of having spent $100,000 USD on a PSA 6 Mantle prior to the pandemic, imagine if you had invested that money into basketball or soccer or even Pokemon? You'd have a million today! Seriously, what's $50,000 or even $100,000 USD profit? It's peanuts!! Look what's going on with modern cards (which makes up like ninety-five percent of the hobby, by the way. ) What is LeBron's Exquisite at now? A few mill? What will Steph Curry's National Treasures be worth if he wins another title? A mill? What about Doncic or even Charizard?

[jingram058]

A few more months of high as Hell prices for everything and gas as well, we'll see where things like baseball cards go. Those deep pockets might just dry up.

[samosa4u]

Originally Posted by jingram058

A few more months of high as Hell prices for everything and gas as well, we'll see where things like baseball cards go. Those deep pockets might just dry up.

Oh, I'm not predicting doom or anything like that. I just think the prices being posted here are giving others the wrong idea about this card.

[AndrewJerome]

Wrong idea in what way? Your last post showed a 4 for $90k. Clearly $100k for a 6 is a pipe dream. The card has exploded in value in all grades. Anything to the contrary is just wishful thinking.

Andrew

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by AndrewJerome

Wrong idea in what way? Your last post showed a 4 for $90k. Clearly $100k for a 6 is a pipe dream. The card has exploded in value in all grades. Anything to the contrary is just wishful thinking.

Andrew

Well said. What is key to hang a lantern on in this discussion is that in this day and age, we can no longer lump all cards in the same grade into the same price-zone. The premiums paid for eye appeal and centering— not just for this particular card but for many others in the hobby— make the prettiest examples totally unique animals with their own behavior when they hit the auction block.

As per the data below, if a nice 5 was 156k and a stronger one— though clearly not top end or perfectly centered— was 180k, then a truly perfectly centered 6 will hammer around 250k or higher. We will only know when and if such a specimen hits the block.

As I mentioned in a prior post, last year a PSA 3 with freakish A+ eye appeal went for $163,000. So it is paramount these days to examine the specific card in question. The old days of "all Grade X's costing Y" are over and gone. We can cherry pick a tilted, poorly centered, or poorly colored card and it may seem like prices are softening. We can cherry pick a gorgeous, lights-out centered card and yet that won't mean all cards in that grade are exploding.

These days, it all comes down to the specific, individual card and its unique combination of technical grade and eye appeal/centering. And frankly this collector thinks that is how it should be. The technical grade is but one component and opinion, and does not necessarily speak to beauty. And a great many buyers out there will pay for beauty to their eye over the grade.

[pokerplyr80]

There is a huge difference between what an off centered card like that heritage psa 4 went for, and what a dead centered example would bring. If we're assuming that's the value, 90k for an off centered tilted 4, I'd put a dead centered between 175-200k.

When I say a 6 would bring 300k+ I dont mean just any 6. This would need basically 50/50 centering.

There used to be a saying around here, not sure if it's still used much, but it was buy the card, not the holder. That is what people do with this particular card more so than most others. The grade still matters, but there would be a wide expected price range for each grade based on eye appeal and centering. A dead centered 4 would go for as much if not more than a very off center 6.

Edit: I didn't see Matt's post when I wrote this one, but he did a much better job explaining the point I was trying to make.