Mike Baker Authenticated

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by 1880nonsports

you are incorrectly impugning someone's reputation without knowing anything about him or what actually went on at a couple of grading companies....... A negative suggestion followed by affirmation from another person and voila! He was the boogeyman. I believe he was heralded as top drawer grader.

Serious question. If he was a top grader and a good guy what the hell happened with all the graded altered cards?

Also not sure if true but according to the last owner(Damian Werner) of GAI/Global Authority Mike Baker was still the grader till they completely shut down due to complete incompetence and not returning submitters cards.

[Yoda]

In or around 2000 the hobby was abuzz with the news that a new grading company was about to launch. Steve Rocci, President, and Mike Baker, Head Grader, had left PSA to form GAI with backing from several deep pockets investors. Early reaction from dealers was overwhelmingly supportive due in no small part to Baker's sterling reputation. I recall the Ft. Washington show around then when GAI was doing on site grading for, I believe, the first time. Dealers were cracking cards out cards from PSA slabs and submitting them to Mike because he had graded the same cards at PSA.
I really don't know why SGC went south but a counter guarantee from Mike certainly should enhance value for those who care. It's not for me, but I understand how others could see it differently.

[Rich Klein]

FYI: They are at almost all the large Dallas Card Shows so anyone who is interested and comes to those events can find out for themselves with 1st person evidence and come away with their own conclusions.

Regards
Rich

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by 1880nonsports

I'm about to send off some cards to MBA that I think are under-graded.
You lost me with the first sentence. It got worse all the way to the end.........

So you'll send it in. Mike will LYK and everyone else who examines the card and looks on the back that it's under graded and give you a sticker. You now display some other companies "INCORRECTLY" graded card with a sticker from someone else who says it's better than that.
Who exactly is Mike Baker and what are the credentials other people would find impressive?

If it's about wanting to resell an incorrectly labeled graded card for an amount commensurate with it's "real(?)" grade you would need people to care about what Mike says (Mikey likes it cereal).

If it's about confirming what your keen mind and eyes have told you - you seem to do that pretty well on your own :-)

So, just to clarify. Should I put you down in the 'nay' column?

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Yoda

In or around 2000 the hobby was abuzz with the news that a new grading company was about to launch. Steve Rocci, President, and Mike Baker, Head Grader, had left PSA to form GAI with backing from several deep pockets investors. Early reaction from dealers was overwhelmingly supportive due in no small part to Baker's sterling reputation. I recall the Ft. Washington show around then when GAI was doing on site grading for, I believe, the first time. Dealers were cracking cards out cards from PSA slabs and submitting them to Mike because he had graded the same cards at PSA.
I really don't know why SGC went south but a counter guarantee from Mike certainly should enhance value for those who care. It's not for me, but I understand how others could see it differently.

Yeah not for me either. I think we all can see when a card appears to have been graded conservatively...or not and know what to pay accordingly. Once a card is in a holder, a full assessment is not possible so at best they can give a nod to a card based on an incomplete review.

The other issue I have with this concept of only certifying high end cards is that we do not get their opinion on a card they do not certify and why. So to me, as a whole, it is a one-sided assurance. Nobody would pay them to certify the card is altered in the holder, as an example.

If someone wants to pay them for that service because of Mike's rep, go for it and if someone is actually willing to pay a premium for it, good for them.

[Peter_Spaeth]

It's about as meaningful as those absurd PWCC eye appeal ratings, but PT Barnum was assuredly right.

Or, as the song goes, you gotta have a gimmick, if you want to get ahead.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Yeah not for me either. I think we all can see when a card appears to have been graded conservatively...or not and know what to pay accordingly. Once a card is in a holder, a full assessment is not possible so at best they can give a nod to a card based on an incomplete review.

The other issue I have with this concept of only certifying high end cards is that we do not get their opinion on a card they do not certify and why. So to me, as a whole, it is a one-sided assurance. Nobody would pay them to certify the card is altered in the holder, as an example.

If someone wants to pay them for that service because of Mike's rep, go for it and if someone is actually willing to pay a premium for it, good for them.

Great point Chase. Just because one card has a high-end sticker on it, while another of the exact same card and grade does not, doesn't guarantee that the card without the sticker couldn't actually be in even nicer shape with better eye appeal than the stickered card. It is basically just another way for people to milk more money out of collectors, by preying on their inexperience, or fears that they can't always accurately tell from scans and images what a card really looks like in hand.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It's about as meaningful as those absurd PWCC eye appeal ratings, but PT Barnum was assuredly right.

Or, as the song goes, you gotta have a gimmick, if you want to get ahead.

+1

[chalupacollects]

Well now it's buy the card not the sticker?

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Snowman

So, just to clarify. Should I put you down in the 'nay' column?

You can add me too.

Sounds like another feel good service for "Card Karens" (I'll let you have that one Darren, lol) that just can't accept what is technically already an opinion and want it supplemented with a better one.

I saw this on a YouTube card show review a few weeks ago and laughed it off. Let's be straight here, the biggest selling point for PSAs success is the registry. I feel for them that someone is now going to call (everyone knows this likely already happened but heck, I'll make the story future state.) and demand that based on this yellow piece of paper they want a higher level in their Mike Trout registry. I bet they will just jump on that.

My eyes are the determiner of what is nice... I do not care, will not care, and will not do anything but walk away from someone trying to sell me one of these flim-flam scams at a higher price. These yellow cards would be circular filed and stickers peeled off the second I unpack it.

I will immediately give credit to the first service that does not simply just not grant an upgrade to the sucker on the line, but rather downgrades the card below the assigned grade. If you take your task that seriously you don't have my business, but you have my respect.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by BobC

Great point Chase. Just because one card has a high-end sticker on it, while another of the exact same card and grade does not, doesn't guarantee that the card without the sticker couldn't actually be in even nicer shape with better eye appeal than the stickered card. It is basically just another way for people to milk more money out of collectors, by preying on their inexperience, or fears that they can't always accurately tell from scans and images what a card really looks like in hand.

Also Bob, unless we are comparing the sale of the exact card without the MBA certification in a parallel universe, how do we know that the MBA certification adds anything to the value of the card? The card might have reached that price without the certification because...the persons bidding on it can see for themselves that it is a nice example.

[theuclakid]

business model aside, Mike Baker was the head grader or one of the head graders in the 1990's at PSA before he and Steve Rocci left PSA to start GAI in about 2001...for a multitude of reasons as I recall...GAI's grading, in my opinion, was well respected through about 2005, when changes were made to the company, one other important grader who had left PSA also, name escapes me, left GAI, investors changing etc....this is from what I heard...the company went downhill after that unfortunately...but their early grades were solid...it is too bad their graded cards do not sell....Bruce Perry

[Santo10Fan]

Originally Posted by HRBAKER

Will he slab the slab?
God I can only hope so.

This

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Also Bob, unless we are comparing the sale of the exact card without the MBA certification in a parallel universe, how do we know that the MBA certification adds anything to the value of the card? The card might have reached that price without the certification because...the persons bidding on it can see for themselves that it is a nice example.

True dat! Exactly why I agree with you. LOL

[Yoda]

Chase, gadzooks! Can you possibly mean that collectors can actually grade their own cards? What can possibly be coming next?

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Yoda

Chase, gadzooks! Can you possibly mean that collectors can actually grade their own cards? What can possibly be coming next?

I know John. Some of us have been doing it shortly after getting into the hobby but others of us need 3rd party validation of third party assessments. Wow reading that actually made me laugh.

Then again we are in the era of fractional ownership, vaults and NFTs where you can either own a piece of something you can never handle, own something you can never handle or worse, own something that is only virtual.

Maybe the MBA route is not so bad after all?

[Snowman]

I'm pretty happy with this one.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Do the stickers come off cleanly or do they leave a residue?

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Do the stickers come off cleanly or do they leave a residue?

I'm not sure. I haven't tried.

[Carter08]

Seems a bit excessive.

[Dead-Ball-Hitter]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Digging up this old thread because I'm about to send off some cards to MBA that I think are under-graded. I realize that it sounds ridiculous to pay someone to "grade the graders", but this does address/solve some of the problems with grading today. So many cards are now being criminally under graded by PSA; as well as SGC, although I would argue less so. I have recently graded cards in PSA 6 slabs that look like they belong in an 8 holder. Also, centering and overall eye appeal are extremely important with vintage cards. And while, yes, you can see the centering on a scan, you often can't see other minor flaws that greatly affect the eye appeal of a card in hand. How many times have we all bought that nicely centered VG-EX 4 card thinking we found a diamond in the rough only to have it show up with a surface crease/wrinkle that you couldn't see from the scans? That's just the limitations of buying and selling cards online, which is where the vast majority of cards trade hands nowadays.

I think this service addresses some of these challenges, and the market clearly agrees. The data is in on MBA Diamond stickered cards, and they sell for a significant premium, often bringing the price of a full grade bump higher for the Gold stickers. And no, it's not just the premium that a well-centered card would have otherwise gotten. It definitely adds value (I ran an ANCOVA model with the data and the stickers are statistically significant even after accounting for cards being well-centered). Sure, you could risk cracking your "under-graded" cards out and sending them back in for grading again, hoping to get a bump, but with grading fees as high as they are today, and with PSA and with how ridiculously harsh they're being with many of their grades now, it's often just not worth it. Plus, I think the Gold Diamond stickers look nice. They're subtle and classy looking. Especially on the newer SGC tuxedo slabs.

Well, I hate to say it, but I fear you’ll be wasting your money. Honestly, stickers don’t mean much to collectors; most view them as a gimmick to sell cards. In the coin arena, stickers have a little cache, but all the ridiculous PWCC stickers are viewed as scams to increase the sales price. I have personally pealed these off of slabs.

Mike Baker was always a nice guy, I talked with him at length back in the day, but his name carries absolutely no weight today, and his GAI business ventures ruined his once fairly good name. I don’t mean to put the guy down, but this is just a poor marketing ploy used by folks dissatisfied by their card’s actual grade.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Dead-Ball-Hitter

Well, I hate to say it, but I fear you’ll be wasting your money. Honestly, stickers don’t mean much to collectors; most view them as a gimmick to sell cards. In the coin arena, stickers have a little cache, but all the ridiculous PWCC stickers are viewed as scams to increase the sales price. I have personally pealed these off of slabs.

I'm not getting the stickers because I want to flip them. They're for me. This is for my PC cards. That said, I agree that the stickers don't mean much to at least a plurality of collectors. There is no shortage of venom spewed at those who prefer and value cards with such stickers on them by the internet forum heroes this hobby so desperately needs. You're free to think of it as a "gimmick to sell cards", but if you look at the population of cards that have been awarded these stickers, you'll quickly realize that they are far superior copies of those cards when it comes to eye appeal, and centering in particular. I would take a perfectly centered 4 over any 9 that isn't perfectly centered all day for any card. It's just that important to me. The grading scales used by PSA, SGC, et al are borderline meaningless to me as a collector. Literally, the only thing I care about is eye appeal. I couldn't give a shit how sharp some corners are or if there's chipping along the edges of a card. Cards that get awarded "gold diamonds" or "PWCC-S" stickers always stand out to me. I've never seen a single one that wasn't an absolute stunner. The same isn't true though of cards with a number grade. Even PSA 10s often look like trash to me because they are violently off-centered.

I don't think of the stickers as a way to "get more money out of people". I think of it as an awards ceremony for my PC. What are the best of the best cards I own as far as eye-appeal goes? I'm giving them little awards that I find aesthetically pleasing.

As far as the broader market goes, the stickers do command a premium. The market indeed values Mike Baker's opinion. Certainly, there are many who don't value it at all, but they aren't the people paying premiums for these cards. His grading experience and expertise is very highly regarded and respected by a lot of people in this hobby. Cards that he places Gold Diamond stickers on sell for huge premiums at auction. I know this because I've been tracking the data and I built a statistical model to measure it's impact, as I stated above. I'm not guessing here. The numbers don't lie.

Originally Posted by Dead-Ball-Hitter

Mike Baker was always a nice guy, I talked with him at length back in the day, but his name carries absolutely no weight today, and his GAI business ventures ruined his once fairly good name. I don’t mean to put the guy down, but this is just a poor marketing ploy used by folks dissatisfied by their card’s actual grade.

His name may carry no weight to you, and no weight to a plurality of the hobby, but it certainly carries quite a bit of weight to a fairly large percentage of collectors. I would much rather have a card graded by Mike Baker than I would one of these Cheetoh chomping new hires at PSA who thinks that Gretzky RC above is a 6.

Also worth pointing out is that the argument that it's stupid to send a card in to Mike Baker because anyone can just look at the card and determine it's condition for themselves can just as easily be applied to a grading services in general (PSA, SGC, etc.). If you see no value in card grading services in general, then you're welcome to that opinion. But it isn't a very popular one. If you want to see what the hobby values as a whole, just follow the money.

[Peter_Spaeth]

In light of what happened at GAI, why should we believe a reincarnated Mike Baker is honest and free from influence?

In any case to me there is a big difference between Mike Baker authenticating and grading a card and Mike Baker certifying a card is nice for the grade.

[Lorewalker]

I see no value added having a cert from MBA but I see no value in the PWCC stickers either. Clearly there are fan boys for both of these certs.

I have not seen enough MBA certed cards for sale (which should not be interpreted that he is overly discerning or strict). Market has already shown nice cards for the grade sell for premiums...sometimes huge premiums. I think it is self-serving to conclude an MBA sticker is the reason on those sales.

Their cert is simply stating that they looked at the card in the holder and they feel it is nice for the grade, which anyone can do, no offense to MBA. He is not stating this PSA 6 is a PSA 8, which as a former grader, would actually be value added.

I guess I am secure enough in my life and in my ability to judge my own cards that I would not need to pay someone to reassure me and I certainly would not pay a premium for a card because it was certed by MBA but would pay a premium for a card that happened to be certed by them if I felt it was high end. Huge distinction, imo.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I'd like to see numbers on what percentage of cards sent to him (already a self selected group) Mike Baker is stickering.

[GasHouseGang]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I don't think of the stickers as a way to "get more money out of people". I think of it as an awards ceremony for my PC. What are the best of the best cards I own as far as eye-appeal goes? I'm giving them little awards that I find aesthetically pleasing.

Then why not just buy your own stickers, have a little ceremony, and put stickers on your favorite cards. Gold stars might be a good choice.

Obviously, I don't get it.

[Lorewalker]

I was just poking around eBay and saw a few completed BIN sales for some 50s and 60s cards with MBA certs that went for exceptionally strong prices. Only the buyer could tell us if the price they paid reflected the MBA cert but it would appear to be the case.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

I was just poking around eBay and saw a few completed BIN sales for some 50s and 60s cards with MBA certs that went for exceptionally strong prices. Only the buyer could tell us if the price they paid reflected the MBA cert but it would appear to be the case.

Were any already blessed by PWCC? Maybe there's a double premium for a double sticker?

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Were any already blessed by PWCC? Maybe there's a double premium for a double sticker?

Funny you should ask. I saw a 69 someone another in a PSA 8 with a PWCC A and an MBA Gold and at the very least the card was a diamond cut (slanted top edge with compensating slanted bottom edge) which sorta supports why the entire concept is utter BS. Never underestimate the gimmicks, smoke and mirrors most collectors will fall for.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Funny you should ask. I saw a 69 someone another in a PSA 8 with a PWCC A and an MBA Gold and at the very least the card was a diamond cut (slanted top edge with compensating slanted bottom edge) which sorta supports why the entire concept is utter BS. Never underestimate the gimmicks, smoke and mirrors most collectors will fall for.

Maybe as part of its (allegedly) ongoing work the FBI will sticker cards that are legit. Now THAT I might pay for. Or they could put a contraband sticker on bad cards Brent turned over when he was cooperating. Would pay even more.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Maybe as part of its (allegedly) ongoing work the FBI will sticker cards that are legit. Now THAT I might pay for. Or they could put a contraband sticker on bad cards Brent turned over when he was cooperating. Would pay even more.

I would hope those would already be in the collection of the FBI like other crap they have confiscated. Check the PSA Reg and see how many sets the FBI has registered.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Funny you should ask. I saw a 69 someone another in a PSA 8 with a PWCC A and an MBA Gold and at the very least the card was a diamond cut (slanted top edge with compensating slanted bottom edge) which sorta supports why the entire concept is utter BS. Never underestimate the gimmicks, smoke and mirrors most collectors will fall for.

OH MAN, If we could get a Purple sticker on that slab it would be priceless.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by bnorth

OH MAN, If we could get a Purple sticker on that slab it would be priceless.

Sorry Ben but there was no room left on the slab for another sticker.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Sorry Ben but there was no room left on the slab for another sticker.

Since only the flip matters, you could put it on the part with the card, no?

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Since only the flip matters, you could put it on the part with the card, no?

But who will grade the sticker?

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Since only the flip matters, you could put it on the part with the card, no?

Well to the end user the card itself is meaningless but for that the integrity of that all encompassing assessment the card undergoes while in the holder, validating or invalidating the grade, it would pose a serious issue.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

But who will grade the sticker?

Don't worry that is coming.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Digging up this old thread because I'm about to send off some cards to MBA that I think are under-graded. I realize that it sounds ridiculous to pay someone to "grade the graders", but this does address/solve some of the problems with grading today. So many cards are now being criminally under graded by PSA; as well as SGC, although I would argue less so. I have recently graded cards in PSA 6 slabs that look like they belong in an 8 holder. Also, centering and overall eye appeal are extremely important with vintage cards. And while, yes, you can see the centering on a scan, you often can't see other minor flaws that greatly affect the eye appeal of a card in hand. How many times have we all bought that nicely centered VG-EX 4 card thinking we found a diamond in the rough only to have it show up with a surface crease/wrinkle that you couldn't see from the scans? That's just the limitations of buying and selling cards online, which is where the vast majority of cards trade hands nowadays.

I think this service addresses some of these challenges, and the market clearly agrees. The data is in on MBA Diamond stickered cards, and they sell for a significant premium, often bringing the price of a full grade bump higher for the Gold stickers. And no, it's not just the premium that a well-centered card would have otherwise gotten. It definitely adds value (I ran an ANCOVA model with the data and the stickers are statistically significant even after accounting for cards being well-centered). Sure, you could risk cracking your "under-graded" cards out and sending them back in for grading again, hoping to get a bump, but with grading fees as high as they are today, and with PSA and with how ridiculously harsh they're being with many of their grades now, it's often just not worth it. Plus, I think the Gold Diamond stickers look nice. They're subtle and classy looking. Especially on the newer SGC tuxedo slabs.

Here's an example of one of the cards I'm planning to send off to MBA. This Gretzky RC is laughably under-graded. This is not an EX-MT card. Anyone selling this card raw would describe it as NM or NM-MT and no buyers would ever question that description upon receiving it. I could crack it and send it back to PSA. Maybe they give me a 7? Perhaps an 8? Who knows. But perfectly centered, under-graded cards with great eye appeal are very difficult to find in this hobby. I say they deserve an award, and I plan on giving mine little gold diamond stickers because I like how they look. It's like the trophy shelf of my collection. And they display nicely too. Plus, now I can tell that clown who says, "comps for a PSA 5 are about $5k" to take a hike just that much more easily without having to defend why I'm asking above "comps" if I ever decide to sell.

Don't get me wrong, I fully realize why many collectors have no interest in this service. But this is why I like them and why I plan to send off many of my favorite cards to MBA. Sometimes the grading companies just get it wrong. And if Mike Baker agrees that they "got it wrong" or that it's a premium card of that grade, then I'm definitely willing to pay a significant premium as a buyer over some random eBay listing where the seller writes "LOOKS BETTER" in the title only to have it show up with a crease and 7 indents on it.

Wow. HBO or Netflix should add you to their comedy lineup.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Don't worry that is coming.

[1880nonsports]

Yes Snowman that would make me a nay.

You state "The only thing I care about is eye appeal." OK but isn't the sticker then just confirming for you your own thoughts? You had these thoughts already when procuring the cards - believed you could ferret out an under graded card that at least theoretically was under valued.

Instead of paying for that I might prefer another route - like sharing the enjoyment with like minded people who understand the nuances. Admittedly in their daily lives people pay all the time for the "yes you're right" response.

Now you have a card with FOUR people involved in it's authenticity and appeal - you, the original grading company, the new company, and finally the person or people that eventually get to see the card or possible buy it at a price that might exceed whatever the current cost basis is for a particular grade of a graded card.
I never should have gone down this rabbit hole before having coffee....

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

...Market has already shown nice cards for the grade sell for premiums...sometimes huge premiums. I think it is self-serving to conclude an MBA sticker is the reason on those sales.

As I explained above, I controlled for this factor in my model. I am not making an assumption. I tested that hypothesis using robust statistical techniques. I scored the centering of every card on a scale of 1 to 10 and included that data in the model. The model measures the impact of both centering AND the stickers. The results are that BOTH centering AND having a Gold Diamond sticker adds value to the card. Significant value. Silver stickers didn't add much, but the gold stickers did.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Their cert is simply stating that they looked at the card in the holder and they feel it is nice for the grade, which anyone can do, no offense to MBA. He is not stating this PSA 6 is a PSA 8, which as a former grader, would actually be value added.

Based on the data though, the market appears to interpret these stickers as "this card is under graded" regardless of whether or not that is his intention.

Yes, anyone can look at the card and determine that it looks nice on their own. No sticker needed. But the same is true for grading in general. Anyone can look at a card in a 3 holder and see that it's in VG condition without needing the slab. Same is true with NM cards. And buyers are fully capable of placing higher value on better conditioned cards without slabs. Just look at Greg Morris's raw card sales on eBay. The raw card market appears to account for condition just fine on its own. Yet, we still have grading companies and the market has made it clear that it values their opinions. More so than just the card's appearance on its own merit. A NM-MT raw card sells for a fraction of what that exact same card sells for if it's sitting inside of a PSA 8 slab. The same is true of MBA Gold Diamond stickers. The market values them. It values them more than just the card itself. You may not like it. You may think those who place value on such things are [insert your favorite insult here], but the fact remains; it still adds value. Value in excess of what nice centering/eye appeal would otherwise add to a card on its own.

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

I guess I am secure enough in my life and in my ability to judge my own cards that I would not need to pay someone to reassure me and I certainly would not pay a premium for a card because it was certed by MBA but would pay a premium for a card that happened to be certed by them if I felt it was high end. Huge distinction, imo.

There it is. Here come the jabs. People who like these Gold Diamond stickers are "insecure" lol.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Maybe as part of its (allegedly) ongoing work the FBI will sticker cards that are legit. Now THAT I might pay for. Or they could put a contraband sticker on bad cards Brent turned over when he was cooperating. Would pay even more.

Ah yes, the "ongoing investigation". Any day now, any day now...

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Ah yes, the "ongoing investigation". Any day now, any day now...

Revenge is a dish best served coild, they say. This one may be ice cold though. LOL. On a more hopeful note, has anyone heard Brent say it's been dropped?

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Snowman

As I explained above, I controlled for this factor in my model. I am not making an assumption. I tested that hypothesis using robust statistical techniques. I scored the centering of every card on a scale of 1 to 10 and included that data in the model. The model measures the impact of both centering AND the stickers. The results are that BOTH centering AND having a Gold Diamond sticker adds value to the card. Significant value. Silver stickers didn't add much, but the gold stickers did.

I am not a data scientist so I cannot envision how a model can account for or demonstrate that a card with an MBA cert sells for more money than if it did not have the MBA cert without running parallel sales. I did however allude to the fact that I saw MBA certed cards sell for stupid money but the N was very small.

Based on the data though, the market appears to interpret these stickers as "this card is under graded" regardless of whether or not that is his intention.

Yes, anyone can look at the card and determine that it looks nice on their own. No sticker needed. But the same is true for grading in general. Anyone can look at a card in a 3 holder and see that it's in VG condition without needing the slab. Same is true with NM cards. And buyers are fully capable of placing higher value on better conditioned cards without slabs. Just look at Greg Morris's raw card sales on eBay. The raw card market appears to account for condition just fine on its own. Yet, we still have grading companies and the market has made it clear that it values their opinions. More so than just the card's appearance on its own merit. A NM-MT raw card sells for a fraction of what that exact same card sells for if it's sitting inside of a PSA 8 slab. The same is true of MBA Gold Diamond stickers. The market values them. It values them more than just the card itself.You may not like it. You may think those who place value on such things are [insert your favorite insult here], but the fact remains; it still adds value. Value in excess of what nice centering/eye appeal would otherwise add to a card on its own.

The bolded sentences are simply not accurate statements. Check Greg Morris's raw card sales for NM-MT and more times than not the card sells for more than it would in an 8. And stating the market values MBA certs is simply not true. The whole market does value them...you do and a small minority of collectors might.

There it is. Here come the jabs. People who like these Gold Diamond stickers are "insecure" lol.

You carried on in two infomercial missives about the virtues of MBA. In one you wrote

I say they deserve an award, and I plan on giving mine little gold diamond stickers because I like how they look. It's like the trophy shelf of my collection. And they display nicely too. Plus, now I can tell that clown who says, "comps for a PSA 5 are about $5k" to take a hike just that much more easily without having to defend why I'm asking above "comps" if I ever decide to sell.

That sounded pretty insecure to me. Was not an insult it was my observation. I know you want to be the only one who can make observations but too bad.

[Dead-Ball-Hitter]

Originally Posted by Snowman

As I explained above, I controlled for this factor in my model. I am not making an assumption. I tested that hypothesis using robust statistical techniques.
.

I don’t mean to offend, but I have to call bull on this one. I worked previously with the BLS, that’s the Bureau of Labor Statistics, who’s tag line literally is, “We have a stat for that.” A guy with a spreadsheet recording a few sales and various odd pieces of descriptive data does not a data model make. You won’t convince others that this path is meaningful. For that matter, No need to justify to others who don’t agree that these “certificates” hold any special value. You like them, that’s fine. Seriously, enjoy.

By the way, if Baker kept 22 of your cards when he failed in his attempt to reinvigorate GAI, you might feel differently about his reputation.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Dead-Ball-Hitter

I don’t mean to offend, but I have to call bull on this one. I worked previously with the BLS, that’s the Bureau of Labor Statistics, who’s tag line literally is, “We have a stat for that.” A guy with a spreadsheet recording a few sales and various odd pieces of descriptive data does not a data model make. You won’t convince others that this path is meaningful. For that matter, No need to justify to others who don’t agree that these “certificates” hold any special value. You like them, that’s fine. Seriously, enjoy.

By the way, if Baker kept 22 of your cards when he failed in his attempt to reinvigorate GAI, you might feel differently about his reputation.

Doubt. Our snowman loves PWCC. He has a thing for the bad boys of the hobby.

And thank you...I figured his "models", which he has for every single thread he posts on, are utter BS that most of us could not refute but he uses them all in an effort to disarm his adversaries.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Dead-Ball-Hitter

I don’t mean to offend, but I have to call bull on this one. I worked previously with the BLS, that’s the Bureau of Labor Statistics, who’s tag line literally is, “We have a stat for that.” A guy with a spreadsheet recording a few sales and various odd pieces of descriptive data does not a data model make. You won’t convince others that this path is meaningful. For that matter, No need to justify to others who don’t agree that these “certificates” hold any special value. You like them, that’s fine. Seriously, enjoy.

Nice try with the name drop. Let's not pretend like you know what you're talking about here. You don't build statistical models.

I'm a professional statistician/data scientist. Building models like this is what I do for work every day. The primary work of a statistician is to perform hypothesis tests using data and mathematics. Just because you don't understand how it works doesn't mean that it in fact does not work.

This isn't a difficult problem to understand or to solve for. If you want to know whether or not an MBA sticker has a statistically significant impact on selling prices, then all you have to do is gather enough data (a few hundred sales is more than sufficient) and build a statistical model to perform any number of hypothesis tests. You can control for other variables by including them in the model. Variables you might want to control for could be: Which grading company graded the card, the grade of the card, which card it is, centering, pop count, sticker or no sticker, date of sale, a market index to tether to the date, and numerous other things you might want to track like stains, creases, focus/registration, etc. Then you can just build a simple (or complex if you want) regression model or an ANOVA/ANCOVA model, or some machine learning models, or a multilevel mixed effects model, or whatever other model you want to build that tests hypotheses. This is pretty elementary stuff in the world of statistics. It's really not that complicated. Models will estimate the impact of each variable included in the model, and it will also output a P-value that informs you whether or not that impact is statistically significant (the more sales data you have in your model, the more power the model has in determining statistical significance).

But I'm sure you know all this stuff because you worked "with" the Bureau of Labor Statistics lol.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Nice try with the name drop. Let's not pretend like you know what you're talking about here. You don't build statistical models.

I'm a professional statistician/data scientist. Building models like this is what I do for work every day. The primary work of a statistician is to perform hypothesis tests using data and mathematics. Just because you don't understand how it works doesn't mean that it in fact does not work.

This isn't a difficult problem to understand or to solve for. If you want to know whether or not an MBA sticker has a statistically significant impact on selling prices, then all you have to do is gather enough data (a few hundred sales is more than sufficient) and build a statistical model to perform any number of hypothesis tests. You can control for other variables by including them in the model. Variables you might want to control for could be: Which grading company graded the card, the grade of the card, which card it is, centering, pop count, sticker or no sticker, date of sale, a market index to tether to the date, and numerous other things you might want to track like stains, creases, focus/registration, etc. Then you can just build a simple (or complex if you want) regression model or an ANOVA/ANCOVA model, or some machine learning models, or a multilevel mixed effects model, or whatever other model you want to build that tests hypotheses. This is pretty elementary stuff in the world of statistics. It's really not that complicated. Models will estimate the impact of each variable included in the model, and it will also output a P-value that informs you whether or not that impact is statistically significant (the more sales data you have in your model, the more power the model has in determining statistical significance).

But I'm sure you know all this stuff because you worked "with" the Bureau of Labor Statistics lol.

I perfectly trust that you have more statistical skill than myself and I did like to hear the defense of the variables that most would not take into account as in my mind the addition or subtraction of these variables is why statistics are generally garbage. Is there a greater chance of a gun injury if one exists in the home… well no crap, will there be more stair falls in a multistory home versus a single level ranch home? Yes! Wow, that was a useful study.

My question lies on this, after listing a plethora of variables needing analysis you state “a few hundred sales is more than sufficient”. Seems it would not be as that group of a few hundred may contain single examples of many of those items, two, or be excluded completely as it is being culled from many areas used by new or less informed collectors such as PWCC and eBay and has no access to private sales.

The idea that this is a statistical fact requires a large leap of faith and should not cause some stone wall statements of hyperbole touting the need for this. I’ll let you enjoy the service, my personal opinion is that the cards you used as examples were well graded based on the chipping and corner wear. Yes, some other areas were exceeding but the grades are a sum of the parts. If the sticker makes you pleased and happier as a collector then please do.

I consider these services snipe hunts and it’s not changing. I do not believe in a hobby that has no real price stability and changes daily that a market of constant end value flux can be measurable without faith.

So after all that time wasted in my ramblings… do what you want for yourself but please understand the sales pitch is not going to have any true impact. You are a corvette salesman pulling over an Amish buggy to make a sale. It’s not going to be easy.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Snowman

Nice try with the name drop. Let's not pretend like you know what you're talking about here. You don't build statistical models.

I'm a professional statistician/data scientist. Building models like this is what I do for work every day. The primary work of a statistician is to perform hypothesis tests using data and mathematics. Just because you don't understand how it works doesn't mean that it in fact does not work.

This isn't a difficult problem to understand or to solve for. If you want to know whether or not an MBA sticker has a statistically significant impact on selling prices, then all you have to do is gather enough data (a few hundred sales is more than sufficient) and build a statistical model to perform any number of hypothesis tests. You can control for other variables by including them in the model. Variables you might want to control for could be: Which grading company graded the card, the grade of the card, which card it is, centering, pop count, sticker or no sticker, date of sale, a market index to tether to the date, and numerous other things you might want to track like stains, creases, focus/registration, etc. Then you can just build a simple (or complex if you want) regression model or an ANOVA/ANCOVA model, or some machine learning models, or a multilevel mixed effects model, or whatever other model you want to build that tests hypotheses. This is pretty elementary stuff in the world of statistics. It's really not that complicated. Models will estimate the impact of each variable included in the model, and it will also output a P-value that informs you whether or not that impact is statistically significant (the more sales data you have in your model, the more power the model has in determining statistical significance).

But I'm sure you know all this stuff because you worked "with" the Bureau of Labor Statistics lol.

[Peter_Spaeth]

If the sticker enhances sale value that only says to me the market is gimmick-oriented and misinformed. As a collector, MB's opinion as to eye appeal doesn't mean anything to me, even assuming he is being completely candid in his assessments and not doing favors for cronies. But it's a weird service to me. At least with PWCC you aren't paying them extra for their assessment and in theory they are reviewing their whole spectrum of cards and sticker only a small percentage. Here, sending cards and money to MB is only well spent if he stickers a high enough percentage of what you submit. What's MB's incentive to grade harshly? He'll dry up his own business.