Where Cards are and are going - Link to Josh Luper's "statement"

[Brian Van Horn]

It should be interesting in the "hobby" how a few not so legal and a few, well.....figure in to the overall prices.

[FrankWakefield]

Gateway drug...

OK, I think almost all of "us" collected cards to some extent as kids. Who of us started with collecting old cards instead of cards contemporary with our youth? The cards I got were from small grocery stores, and then a bit later in trades with childhood friends. I think that's true for most of us.

We didn't start with bidding on 4, 5, and 6 figure graded cards.

Most of us didn't start collecting old cards until after we became aware of, to varying extents, the history of baseball. For me it started with reading Carmichael's My Greatest Day In Baseball, an early 1960's edition. It took that mental stimulus, coupled with encountering an opportunity to buy an old card (years before there was internet or eBay, never heard of a card show then and couldn't have gotten to one if I had heard).

I think that article is fairly well written. I think his deductions are tailored to the finding he wanted to make. I feel like there's a significant disconnect with a deep pocketed speculator in a slabbed basketball card, and an armchair baseball semi-historian collector of 90 to 140 year old ballcards. From the outside they both look like card collectors. But they aren't. For those of us who own a few shares of stock in some NYSE or NASDAQ listed company, did we invest in those shares or did we collect them????

I don't want a room, closet, safe, safety deposit box that smells like slabs. And I think I like it that people with deep pockets have recently paid 6 figures for slabbed basketball cards and slabbed hockey cards. I'm not gonna buy any of those. I hope those guys continue to chase shiny cards in shiny smelly slabs (do they really smell?) and may they never develop an interest in old baseball cards. I almost always eat a big bowl of Cheerios, Rice Chex, Frosted Flakes, whole milk and blueberries for breakfast. I hope there's not a big influx of moneyed buyers who start buying massive amounts of that stuff resulting in an increase in prices on my breakfast stuff. I hope they stay focused on graded Jordan's and graded Gretzky's.

So maybe that article describes what could happen to the old ballcards. But I hope not.

[Seven]

I'm hoping that the people that collect modern, and continue to chase after the shiny new autographs, continue to do just that. Vintage has gotten difficult enough as it is, I shudder to think about the prices rising again. Especially for some of us that collect on a fixed budget.

[Gorditadogg]

I gotta give Josh Luber props. He helped make second-hand sneakers into a $30 billion market. And he spends a lot more on sports cards than I do, so he is plenty interested in the card market and is invested in its success.

As Josh points out Wall Street is recognizing our hobby and investing in it. He thinks this is a good thing and will help make card-collecting cool. I guess I am happy the hobby is getting more interest. Although corporate backing doesn’t necessarily mean long-term health for our hobby – companies have a track record of making short-term decisions – if corporate attention can add new collectors some of them will get hooked and that is a good thing. Because while it is nice for card manufacturers to sell more new cards, at the end of the day the most important factor for the health of the hobby is whether there will be continued demand for the cards that already exist, and we need new collectors for that to happen.

I am not sure how much I agree with his take on the market over the last year. I’d say his “Mark y Mark” theory is true: some people with a lot of disposable income and limited options on how to spend it (like Cuban and Wahlburg maybe) started buying cards, and as prices rose other people who had cards were happy to cash out and take profits. But I would say the run ended when vaccinations got people out of the house again. All the other things he mentioned were minor, and while PSA shutting down did choke off the market (and still is), prices were already falling and anyway a lower supply of graded cards should cause prices to go up.

Also I don’t know how much you can tell about the state of the hobby by looking at sales of $1 million cards. Those are out of range for 99.9% of the hobby, and the future of collecting is not going to be determined by what the ultra-rich decide to put in their vaults. Card Ladder’s Low-End Index, which focuses on $1 to $500 cards, shows prices have not stabilized since the bust in April, and have continued to drop over the last six months. Looking through individual cards in the index, vintage seems to be holding up better than modern, but it would be nice if they had a specific index to show that.

My personal take is that buyers are being pickier right now. High-quality and low-population cards are going up, while run-of-the-mill cards are sliding. This to me is a sign that we don’t have many new collectors building their collections, but instead a lot of Net54-veteran types upgrading their sets and dumping their discards. I don’t know if this will continue but it is not a good direction to be heading.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

As Josh points out Wall Street is recognizing our hobby and investing in it. He thinks this is a good thing and will help make card-collecting cool. I guess I am happy the hobby is getting more interest. Although corporate backing doesn’t necessarily mean long-term health for our hobby – companies have a track record of making short-term decisions – if corporate attention can add new collectors some of them will get hooked and that is a good thing. Because while it is nice for card manufacturers to sell more new cards, at the end of the day the most important factor for the health of the hobby is whether there will be continued demand for the cards that already exist, and we need new collectors for that to happen.

.

I know hate is a strong word, but I really hate the idea of Wall Street recognizing the hobby, and people considering cards some type of asset class. Don't get me wrong, I am happy for the people who make a living selling cards, but the commoditization of our hobby, really rubs me the wrong way. The concept of buying "shares" of a high graded card completely defeats the purpose of collecting in the first place in my opinion. Most of us collect because we enjoy the history of the game. I'm not saying that there shouldn't be high dollar cards, scarcity definitely drives the vintage market, I just wish the concept of a "portfolio of cards" as if they were a company, existed. Might sound a bit like an "old man yells at cloud" rant, because it probably is, but that's just my opinion.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by Seven

I know hate is a strong word, but I really hate the idea of Wall Street recognizing the hobby, and people considering cards some type of asset class. Don't get me wrong, I am happy for the people who make a living selling cards, but the commoditization of our hobby, really rubs me the wrong way. The concept of buying "shares" of a high graded card completely defeats the purpose of collecting in the first place in my opinion. Most of us collect because we enjoy the history of the game. I'm not saying that there shouldn't be high dollar cards, scarcity definitely drives the vintage market, I just wish the concept of a "portfolio of cards" as if they were a company, existed. Might sound a bit like an "old man yells at cloud" rant, because it probably is, but that's just my opinion.

I didn’t read the article and I don’t plan to. But I can tell you that for decades I have thought of cards as an asset class. I started buying and selling cards again after law school (previously I collected from age 8-17) in order to help pay for school. Then, in 2014, once I started making some excess income, I looked at cards as a place to invest. Luckily, I believe what I “collect” to be good investments, but I certainly put money in cards a long time ago for the primary purpose of making money. My point is that cards have been an “asset class” for a long time (long before I looked at them that way). It’s just that now, many more people see it as a an asset class. The hobby has gone from a niche to mainstream, which has attracted more outside money and created innovation (fractional shares, NFTs, wax breaks) and created affiliate products (grading, card scanning apps, digital price guides, etc). It’s all a logical progression

I buy old and rare cards, preferably of blue chip players and/or sets. I have collected off and on for almost 40 years and the one truth is that the good cards consistently go up in value over time. I am conservative by nature, so I will stick to my knitting and enjoy my collection of dead HOFers

All that said, I do think prices are a little out of control and I am not nearly as bullish on card board as many. Who knows, it will be what it be. But I also believe what is good for modern is also good for vintage and that a riding ride lifts all boats (at the same time, tidal waves destroy all boats)

[FrankWakefield]

As a collector of old cards viewing them as an "asset class" and looking at them as an investment (and I am absolutely NOT that kind of collector), it seems to me that such an asset class collector would be buying cards of Cobb, Ruth, Gehrig, Wagner, Young, Johnson, Lajoie... stuff like that. And they wouldn't be buying common cards or making any effort whatsoever toward collecting sets.

Lawyer Rotchkiss, is that how it's done? Or do you collect a little bit on the side?

[Deertick]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I didn’t read the article and I don’t plan to. But I can tell you that for decades I have thought of cards as an asset class. I started buying and selling cards again after law school (previously I collected from age 8-17) in order to help pay for school. Then, in 2014, once I started making some excess income, I looked at cards as a place to invest. Luckily, I believe what I “collect” to be good investments, but I certainly put money in cards a long time ago for the primary purpose of making money. My point is that cards have been an “asset class” for a long time (long before I looked at them that way). It’s just that now, many more people see it as a an asset class. The hobby has gone from a niche to mainstream, which has attracted more outside money and created innovation (fractional shares, NFTs, wax breaks) and created affiliate products (grading, card scanning apps, digital price guides, etc). It’s all a logical progression

I buy old and rare cards, preferably of blue chip players and/or sets. I have collected off and on for almost 40 years and the one truth is that the good cards consistently go up in value over time. I am conservative by nature, so I will stick to my knitting and enjoy my collection of dead HOFers

All that said, I do think prices are a little out of control and I am not nearly as bullish on card board as many. Who knows, it will be what it be. But I also believe what is good for modern is also good for vintage and that a riding ride lifts all boats (at the same time, tidal waves destroy all boats)

I have always considered my "stuff" as an asset, whether it was a work truck, rental property, or yes, my cards, autographs and memorabilia. Just because I love "it" and may have kept it for 20 years, doesn't make me think of it as anything other than an asset.
I shit you not, I just sold some well used shirts and jeans that were 20-30 years old for the amount I payed for them originally. The buyer was a Wardrobe shopper for a film production. I was surprised, but only at the prices realized. Every time I wore them, I was always telling my wife "They don't make them like this anymore" and the market bore me out.
Over the years I have rehomed some items that didn't speak to me anymore to someone with a more advanced need, sometimes at a NET54 discount. I always introduce myself to antiques dealers and yard sale folks as a "Re-homer", I find it, I buy it, I research and enjoy it. And at some point I get it into the hands of the person it should belong to.
I would not have an IRA holding Baseball cards. But if I needed to fund my IRA, my item's would certainly become liquid if necessary.

[carlsonjok]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

I
As Josh points out Wall Street is recognizing our hobby and investing in it. He thinks this is a good thing and will help make card-collecting cool.

I remember, not too long after I graduated from college and was starting on my career, being called on the phone by a (no doubt shady) investment firm wanting me to invest in sports cards. I had absolute no connection to the hobby at that time, so it wasn't like they bought somebody's mailing list. This was in the early 1990s. We all know what happened subsequently. So, I'm firmly in the camp that Wall Street's interest in sports cards will only do damage to the hobby.

Similarly, I see the Fanatics deal through the same jaundiced eyes. The fact that MLB, NBA, NFL, MLBPA, NBAPA, and the NFLPA are all investors in Fanatics points to a business strategy that seeks to squeeze as much out of the license agreement as possible. And that means, in my estimation, a focus on the investor side of the hobby. I may be wrong, and I hope I am, but I'll need to see it to believe it.