Babe Ruth

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by sportscardpete

I will take the other side of the bet - people have been saying since early this year that cards have nowhere to go but down. I think there is a positive feedback loop to cards - the more expensive they are the more people want them. Yes, the cycle will cause some downward prices but I believe there has been a positive "step-change" in card prices. Poor Goudey Ruth's will not go for $1,000 again. Probably not $2,000 either.

I think modern prices are more concerning.

That’s exactly what happen with tech stocks.

[Belfast1933]

I’m curious what the investor/collector ratio is among buyers of vintage cards.... unlike tech stocks, there is a mix of collector/investor who add to the inflation or prices.

I’d prefer that the cards I buy at least hold their value (and increases are nice too!) - but even if the value correct, I’ll still enjoy my Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Satchel Page.

If I had to guess, I would say that investors make up less than 20% of $$ spent on vintage cards. If they exit, prices settle down a few ticks, I’d have no concerns with that.

[sportscardpete]

Originally Posted by joshuanip

That’s exactly what happen with tech stocks.

The difference between tech stocks in 2000 and 2020 is that in 2020 they actually have legitimate businesses that generate cash (generalizing here, talking about the group in general) and are benefitting from a secular move to online that has increased further due to covid.

I think a lot of the new collectors/investors in the market are here to stay; social media has made this a very, very different hobby.

[joshuanip]

Originally Posted by sportscardpete

The difference between tech stocks in 2000 and 2020 is that in 2020 they actually have legitimate businesses that generate cash (generalizing here, talking about the group in general) and are benefitting from a secular move to online that has increased further due to covid.

I think a lot of the new collectors/investors in the market are here to stay; social media has made this a very, very different hobby.

My point was missed in that they have similar price momentum in that both have exhibited behavior of Veblen goods - demand increases as price rises. Buyers live higher and sellers live lower.

As an asset class totally different - explaining such is low hanging fruit.

[HD28Player]

as a collector, that has been out of the hobby for ~ 40 yrs, I am shocked at vintage card prices. Pleasantly surprised as well.

However, I can better understand demand driving prices for limited quantities of prewar stars (Ruth, Cobb, etc.), than the new wave of paying thousands of dollars for recent issues. I can't wrap my mind around that at all.