Babe Ruth
 

I’m amazed at the price increases for Babe Ruth, primarily his 1933 Goudey issues. I get the increase for the all time great, and his cards have been steadily rising. But curious what was cause for the recent explosion in his issues?

It was only 2 years ago when you can buy a low grade 33 goudey for a little over 1k. Now it’s 3-4x that price?

Great to see this as this is good for the hobby, but curious on others’ take on higher demand on higher prices. Anecdotally, seems supply is also drying up too as there use to be multiple issues each pwcc auction, there’s only 1-2 of them in the current auction. Which you would think the higher prices would bring out supply.

It's not just Ruth, it's a lot of the all-time greats for each sport. Check Mantles, Jordans, Gretzkys, Montanas, etc...its the COVID bubble. The popular players in the popular issues have gone nuts.

price manipulation and FOMO!

There have been multiple threads over the last eight months discussing this, but I think the mathematical formula to describe this phenomena is:

covid + stay at home + extra time for old/nostalgia hobbies + stimulus checks = high demand for marquee baseball cards

The biggest question now is whether or not prices will come back down. I sure hope prices come back down. I'm a "save up money for long periods of time to buy cool cards" kind of collector. Unfortunately I'm pretty much priced out of the big cards I was wanting to buy some day. Like everyone else I wanted to add Ruth, Cobb, Jackie Robinson, etc. to my collection. Well, I guess I can probably still add them some day....but they won't be in very good condition :)

I think it's due to the increases in the modern cards. That is, if a Mike Trout rookie card is worth over a million dollars, then these Ruth and Cobb cards must be really undervalued. I think that's the thinking going on here.

I always buy Babe Ruth cards - he's not gonna have a bad year!!!!

I have really been into Mays again lately. He's still with us, one of the top 3 most well rounded players ever, iconic and a trail blazer. I'm amazed at how affordable key cards are of his. He does not seem to have gotten the COVID bump in prices of other top tier players. No brainier investment and I hope he gets some appropriate attention before he's gone. I recently read that he is struggling with pandemic isolation.

Glad I got mine when I did. Paid $500 for this bad boy using my student loans during grad school:

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/...9e1608f2c0.jpg

Cards have become assets. Like any asset, prices do not perpetually rise.
I’m optimistic that prices will normalize when Covid eases up. The casual collector will lose interest when things normalize. Hang in there.

I will take the other side of the bet - people have been saying since early this year that cards have nowhere to go but down. I think there is a positive feedback loop to cards - the more expensive they are the more people want them. Yes, the cycle will cause some downward prices but I believe there has been a positive "step-change" in card prices. Poor Goudey Ruth's will not go for $1,000 again. Probably not $2,000 either.

I think modern prices are more concerning.

I've said it in other threads but there was a time when a guy said paying $100 for a Ruth was crazy and the prices will come back down.

If you've got the money, buy the card you want when you can afford it.

Yea when I got my 144 the prices were about 1k per grade 1-4, and maybe 5-6k for a 5. Slightly more for the yellow. I really wish I had bought the other 3 back then.

I don't see these ever going back down, unless the hobby completely dies. When Babe Ruth cards start decling in value, every card will be in trouble.

That’s exactly what happen with tech stocks.

I’m curious what the investor/collector ratio is among buyers of vintage cards.... unlike tech stocks, there is a mix of collector/investor who add to the inflation or prices.

I’d prefer that the cards I buy at least hold their value (and increases are nice too!) - but even if the value correct, I’ll still enjoy my Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Satchel Page.

If I had to guess, I would say that investors make up less than 20% of $$ spent on vintage cards. If they exit, prices settle down a few ticks, I’d have no concerns with that.

The difference between tech stocks in 2000 and 2020 is that in 2020 they actually have legitimate businesses that generate cash (generalizing here, talking about the group in general) and are benefitting from a secular move to online that has increased further due to covid.

I think a lot of the new collectors/investors in the market are here to stay; social media has made this a very, very different hobby.

Agree with you on Mays. Although his cards have ticked up slightly this year, it hasn't been exponential like some of the others mentioned.

The fact that you can STILL get one of his true rookie cards (1951 Bowman) for an entry level price of around $2000 (grade 1 or 2) and even a grade 4 for around $5000 in today's market is surprising to me.

When I started building my 1952 Bowman set a few years ago, his was one of the first "high dollar" cards I bought, because being his second year card and a high number short print, I was convinced it was soon going to skyrocket in value. Turns out I should I have bought the Mantle three years ago instead :)

Tech stocks have no place in a discussion about baseball cards. I think there is a fallacy in the notion that there are these temporary collectors driving up prices. Nobody in their right mind would go from never even looking at a baseball card to investing in T206 Cobb Green Portraits.

Everyone driving up the price of niche collectibles like T206s and Goudeys is a collector. The only card anyone outside the hobby is likely to have ever heard of is either the Wagner or the 52 Mantle.

Card increases
 

When I see the 48 Leaf Robinson PSA 1 selling for $5k, I am of the opinion the 33 Goudey Ruths still have a LOT of room to run. Go to VCP and look at the prices in the last 15 years, theyve never really gone down. Why would now be any different.

Never wrong, just early. That applies in spades to cards. I don't think I have ever gone wrong buying a Ruth card at the then-market price, because I tend to hang onto cards for a long time. Over the long term they are sound purchases because Ruth and several others are must-have players. I mean, how do you put together any kind of credible collection without Babe Ruth, Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Hank Aaron, Honus Wagner, Stan Musial, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig or Mickey Mantle. They are at the core of the game. It bugged the hell out of me that I did not have a career-issued Wagner card for a long time, until I finally bought one:

https://photos.imageevent.com/exhibi...Wagner%201.jpg

I overpaid for it but now I am very pleased.

Now, if I was purchasing with an eye towards flipping the cards relatively quickly I would be sidelined right now.

My point was missed in that they have similar price momentum in that both have exhibited behavior of Veblen goods - demand increases as price rises. Buyers live higher and sellers live lower.

As an asset class totally different - explaining such is low hanging fruit.

as a collector, that has been out of the hobby for ~ 40 yrs, I am shocked at vintage card prices. Pleasantly surprised as well.

However, I can better understand demand driving prices for limited quantities of prewar stars (Ruth, Cobb, etc.), than the new wave of paying thousands of dollars for recent issues. I can't wrap my mind around that at all.

Let a represent the cost of the card prior to the pandemic.

Let b represent the number of shill bidders.

Let c represent the amount of money you're unable to spend on strip clubs, vacations, live sporting events, etc.

a(2) + b(2) + c(2) / 1.5

So, for the 1948/49 Leaf Jackie Robinson in PSA 4

6,500(2) + 37(2) + 5,000(2)/1.5

13,000 + 74 + 10,000 / 1.5 = 15,382. 67