Most overrated baseball superstar ever?

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by ClementeFanOh

Bill- the term "overrated" combines things players can and cannot control. It doesn't matter if I "like" Bryce Harper or not, the fact is his former team won the Series the very year after he left- if that's not a "hello" fact, I don't know what is... Although I admit I don't follow him closely, I'd bet old Bryce is a "master of the meaningless homerun" as well ( a la Adam Dunn, who was good for hitting dingers when his team was up by 8 or down by 8). The combo of press+talent+ his ego should translate to Harper setting the world on fire- and a 265 average isn't doing it. He is the very definition of overrated- he's paid way too much and produces too little, while his teams wallow.

Gardner is the little engine that could. He's a good player. He's steady, never spectacular. He's been an All Star once, and has won one Gold Glove. He also plays a good number of his games at center field, so he's getting a WAR adjustment Harper doesn't. He also played 79 more games over that period, a half season's worth. 334 more plate appearances.

Harper is erratic. That's his biggest problem. He has a great season, then a below average one. Another season that would have put him in contention for the MVP had he not gotten hurt, then a down season.

Harper has a real strong arm, but he's not a good defensive outfielder. Gardner is. He makes up a good deal of WAR from his defense. Offensively, though, there's no comparison. Gardner is 4% above league average as an offensive player 2013-2019. Harper is 39% above league average with a 139 OPS+. 35% better than Gardner. If he keeps that up, stays healthy, and has a few more big seasons, which I think he will, that's Hall of Fame caliber. Look at some of the players with a career OPS+ of around 140:

143-Eddie Mathews, Harmon Killebrew
142-Cap Anson, Mike Piazza
141-Eddie Collins, Chipper Jones, Larry Walker
140-Vlad Guerrero, Duke Snider
139-Reggie Jackson

Harper is at 137 now, 139 since his rookie season. Stathead has an interesting "did you know" on Harper's page: his 1.149 OPS with RISP was the highest by a Phillies player since Mike Schmidt in 1981.

And after a slow start, Harper had a really strong second half in 2019. His numbers after the All Star Break (July 9):

.270 AVG, 67 games, 45 runs, 19 HR, 52 RBI, 40 BB, .376 OBP/.564 SLG/.941 OPS. 147 OPS+

He was OPS'ing 1.841 in 22 spring training PAs, with 3 HR and 11 RBI before baseball was called for the virus. Obviously that's not against constant MLB caliber pitching. But he was crushing the ball. 20 bases (3 doubles, 3 homers) in 18 AB. That Phillies team has some real offensive potential.