N173 & Goodwin Album Certificate Discussion – A New Variation?

[Joe_G.]

I may be the only one with interest here but thought I'd bump this old thread with a new find. At this point I'm posting inserts outside of the N173 and album redemptions. I recently came across the following insert on eBay and I'm trying to pin down likely date of issue.

I believe it is early and have tentatively placed it at top of the list in chronological order as follows:

Here is a closer look at the Old Judge portraits found on the inserts.

I've chosen to place it as earliest as it is blank backed (like other early inserts) and the Old Judge portrait is perhaps most similar to the earliest portraits I've been able to locate (read on). The portrait found on packs of Old Judge smoking tobacco and cigarette packs didn't change much over time but seems the new insert is most similar to the July 1878 example below. If it were distributed at this early date it would have been in paper packs (before Goodwin migrated to slide & shell boxes in late 1886). I've also looked at export packs but they match what is shown below.

I believe this was issued shortly after Goodwin & Co. began production of the Old Judge brand (purchased rights to the name in April 1877, patented the rice paper preparation on March 5th 1878). Perhaps this insert was placed in the earliest packs of cigarettes to ease smoker conscious on the dangers of paper wrapped cigarettes ("all tobacco" cigarettes were believed to be safer at this time but paper was cheaper).

Anyone have any thoughts on dating this insert?