Bellinger vs. Yelich - MVP

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by packs

I just don't see how Yelich could possibly win when Rendon had the year he had and finished the season as an active player. Trout should win the AL MVP because his season was far and away so much better than anyone else's. But that isn't true in the NL and I don't think Yelich blew people away like Trout did.

Remind me who had the highest WPA (win probability added) in the Major Leagues? It wasn't Mike "the WAR darling" Trout. It certainly wasn't Rendon.

MLB WPA leaders (Win Probability Added for Offensive Player. Given average teams, this is the change in probability caused by this batter during the game. A change of +/- 1 would indicate one win added or lost.)

1. Christian Yelich 7.121
2. Mike Trout 5.198
3. Cody Bellinger 4.986
4. Anthony Rendon 4.760

"The year Rendon had?" If you play baseball to win the game, Christian Yelich was the best offensive player in the NL by a huge margin. Not Anthony Rendon. Yelich's bat was worth two more wins than any other hitter in the game.

Yelich was the NL MVP last year with a 1.000 OPS. Granted, the ball this year was clearly more "lively" (and I'm not going to get into a discussion if the balls were juiced). But the year after his MVP, he raised his OPS by 10%. His OPS+, which factors in park, league averages, went from 164 in 2018 to 179 in 2019. That's a substantial bump in performance. If you were told you were the best player in the league, and next year, you boosted your league-best performance by 10%, you'd think you'd repeat as MVP, wouldn't you?

Yelich had the second best AVG in the Majors. Highest OBP in the NL, second best in MLB. Highest SLG and OPS in baseball. He had the highest HR rate in the NL (only Trout was better in baseball), and the best stolen base success rate of any qualified player in Major League Baseball.

There's really no argument to be made for Anthony Rendon over Yelich. Rendon was slightly above average defensively +0.3 dWAR. Yelich slightly to moderately below, -0.7.

But WAR takes all that into consideration.

bWAR
Yelich 7.1
Rendon 6.3

fWAR
Yelich 7.8
Rendon 7.0

Rendon played 16 more games than Yelich, yet his WAR on both sites is nearly a full point (0.8) lower than Yelich.

Where's the argument to be made for Anthony Rendon over Christian Yelich?

Go back to the team strength discussion. Rendon didn't even lead his own TEAM in WAR.

Per BBR
Stephen Strasburg 6.5
Rendon 6.3
Max Scherzer 5.8
Patrick Corbin 5.4
Juan Soto 4.7
Victor Robles 4.1
Anibal Sanchez 3.3

Again, Brandon Woodruff was Milwaukee's second best player, by WAR at 3.3. He would have been the seventh-best player on the Nationals.

Anthony Rendon had a hell of a lot more help getting Washington to that Wild Card game than Christian Yelich did.

So, again, tell me: what's the argument to be made for Anthony Rendon being more valuable than Yelich?

MLB runs created leader:

1. Christian Yelich 150
Alex Bregman 150
3. Cody Bellinger 146
4. Mike Trout 145
5. Anthony Rendon 139

Rendon had a great year. But not a better, or more valuable one than Christian Yelich.

How many guys in the past have been their league's best hitter by AVG, OBP, SLG, home run rate, and its best base stealer?

Ronald Acuna led the NL with 37 stolen bases. But he was thrown out 8 times. That's an 82.2% success rate. Trea Turner stole 35, but was thrown out 5 times. That's an 87.5% success rate. Yelich stole 30 in 32 tries. That's a 93.75% success rate.

Yelich vs Trout?

Trout hit .291. Yelich .329.
Trout OBP .438. Yelich .429.
Trout SLG .645. Yelich .671.
Trout 11/13 SB, Yelich 30/32.
Trout 600 PA, Yelich 580 PA.

Trout walks about 4.5% more, hence a higher OBP. That's Trout's advantage as an offensive player right now. But the advantage is narrowing.