Bellinger vs. Yelich - MVP

[rats60]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

Oh come on. Seriously? "Defense is half the game?"

If you mean that a team spends nine half innings in the field, and nine hitting, then yes. If you mean to tell me that one player's defensive contribution is equal to his offensive contribution, I have to laugh.

Per BBR, Cody Bellinger's oWAR was 6.6. His dWAR was 1.9, and I refuse to believe that even the best right fielder in the game was worth two whole wins with his glove. In his last 14 seasons, Roberto Clemente topped Bellinger's 1.9 dWAR of 2019 exactly one time-2.5 in 1968. And I'm sorry, Bellinger, as good as he is, isn't Clemente.

By WAR contribution, Bellinger's defense is about 21-22%. That's not even 1/4, let alone half. You're grossly overstating the importance of defense.

And Bellinger "led the Dodgers to _____". Again, seriously?

If we believe BBR, which I think overstates his WAR, the Dodgers' sixth best player would have tied for Milwaukee's best guy not named Christian Yelich. Milwaukee's second highest WAR guy was Brandon Woodruff, who missed a full two months of the season.

Take away Bellinger's 9 wins (per WAR) from a 107 win team, and the Dodgers still have 98 wins. Stick a league average right fielder out there, and the Dodgers still come close to the century mark for wins.

The Brewers? They won 89. Take Yelich's 7.1 off (per BBR), or 7.8 per Fangraphs, and they're a .500 team. .500 teams don't make the playoffs.

The Dodgers had, by WAR:

Bellinger 9.0
Max Muncy 5.7
Hyun-Jin Ryu 5.3
Corey Seager 4.0
Justin Turner 3.7
Clayton Kershaw 3.6
Joc Pederson 3.3

Here's where Woodruff, Milwaukee's second best player comes in. Our best guy after the reigning MVP is Joc Pederson. Do the Brewers even sniff the playoffs? Not a chance in hell.

Bellinger had the best season for Los Angeles. But to suggest that he "lead" them to the playoffs is a joke. He coasted for the second half of the season, hitting .263. League average this year for the NL was .251. If the Dodgers weren't so deep, and in such a God awful division, Bellinger's nosedive in the second half would have cost his team dearly.

Justin Verlander has a WAR of 7.8. How much of that came from offense and how much came from defense? I don't think going 0 for 2 at the plate contributed at all to his total WAR. Of course those that control the ball the most, pitcher and catcher, contribute the most value and an OF less. That doesn't mean you can ignore the contribution of the OF to defense.

As far as Clemente vs. Bellinger you are comparing apples to oranges. Outfield defense in figured differently now because more data is available. That Clemente only exceeded 1.9 dWAR just shows that his defensive value is under represented by WAR, not that Bellinger's defense was not worth 1.9. More data leads to a more accurate value.

Finally, you don't add a team's WAR and get the team's wins. So, subtracting a player's WAR from a team's wins means nothing. I find it interesting that Brewers' fans at the beginning of September were saying that if Yelich led the Brewers to the playoffs, he deserved MVP. That is a defensible position. However, after he gets hurt to claim he still deserves it is not. The Brewers finished 3 games ahead in the wild card race. You can't say that Yelich's replacement wouldn't have got them to 86+ wins. Just look at how well the Brewers played without Yelich. It is all unknown and speculation. I give you credit for defending your team's player though.