Ever wondered how many ACTIVE collectors there are in the United States?

[Bigdaddy]

I've seen a similar question posed in job interviews - "How many piano tuners are there in Chicago?"

The point of the question is to watch someone go through some type of logical cypherin' to come up with a defensible number.

TJ

[JunkyJoe]

Originally Posted by Bigdaddy

I've seen a similar question posed in job interviews - "How many piano tuners are there in Chicago?"

The point of the question is to watch someone go through some type of logical cypherin' to come up with a defensible number.

TJ

I'm thinking that the most accurate route would be to divide total annual sales by average amount spent annually by each collector. Obviously, that goofy formula I used in my initial calculation leaves way too much room for speculation.

I think I read somewhere in the past year that PWCC alone does $50,000,000 in annual auction sales. Would it be safe to say that the majority of that $50 million is in Postwar-to-1980 baseball? And to narrow it down even more, there are a couple other auction houses that do lots of revenue. What, maybe $20-$30 million each? Then throw in, what, $10-$20 million total for the remaining smaller outfits? So, if these guesses were somewhat accurate, then the total annual revenues for the auction houses would be somewhere around $100,000,000, give or take.

Then add in ebay, outfits like COMC, card shows, and the few remaining card shops --- is anyone willing to guess how much that would add up to for Postwar to 1980 annual sales?

[Exhibitman]

The National attendance runs about 35,000 a year. It has been as high as over 100,000 (the infamous 1991 Anaheim show). That represents the hardest core collectors who want to and can afford to make the trip. There's another chunk of attendees every year who are not paid admissions: those who cadge badges from friends with booths. I think that probably offsets the repeat ticket buyers in terms of counting.

I'd say maybe 1 in 10 hardcore collectors I know in SoCal actually make it to the National. Then there are all the collectors who aren't as obsessed as we are but who are there nonetheless.

I really don't think that the massive product creation every season in every sport is absorbed by five figures or even six figures worth of collectors. If you drill down all the way to kids who collect this year's cards and work up from there to the whackos like me who go to every show where cards might be available and spend an inordinate amount of time surfing the net for cards, I'd guess the numbers are a lot larger than the 'census' of hardcore collectors who are active on boards and who attend the National.

[Leon]

The US population is about 326M. If 1 in 400 people collect baseball cards then the number of collectors would be approx. 815,000 ......so that is my guess though I think a round million sounds about right.

ps...I realize there are collectors in other countries but for baseball I am pretty sure the US is the major place they are collected.

[JunkyJoe]

Originally Posted by Leon

The US population is about 326M. If 1 in 400 people collect baseball cards then the number of collectors would be approx. 815,000 ......so that is my guess though I think a round million sounds about right.

ps...I realize there are collectors in other countries but for baseball I am pretty sure the US is the major place they are collected.

That total number sounds pretty reasonable, if not a little optimistic [IMO]. But then ask yourself, how many of those 800,000+ collectors collect Postwar to 1980 baseball?

If we exclude the guys who collect modern and Prewar baseball cards, then what number would we be left with?

[Exhibitman]

I think you meant exclude modern and postwar collectors. That would cut out the majority of 'serious' card collectors for sure. How would you handle those who collect across the board? The # of prewar-only collectors is certainly a fraction of the total number of even the hardcore collecting base. I mean, I collect across all eras. I have 19th Century cards and I have 2018 cards. Do I count into the prewar census?

For some issues I suspect that even 100 collectors would be an overestimation. Take Exhibit cards for example. I think I know most of the serious Exhibit collectors due to feedback on my book and years of trading and list comparisons, and there's maybe 50 of them at most across all subjects, plus a few dozen more who aren't ardent about Exhibits but who are doing sets of various types, mostly baseball and football. That's why it is an area that is reasonably priced, except for a few cards that have crossed over to popular collecting (e.g., the 1925 Gehrig RC, 1923-24 Ruth) . Even the Ruth and Gehrig cards are reasonable as compared to candy and gum issues.

[JunkyJoe]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

I think you meant exclude modern and postwar collectors. That would cut out the majority of 'serious' card collectors for sure. How would you handle those who collect across the board? The # of prewar-only collectors is certainly a fraction of the total number of even the hardcore collecting base. I mean, I collect across all eras. I have 19th Century cards and I have 2018 cards. Do I count into the prewar census?

Actually, I meant to include only Postwar to 1980 collectors, since I'm trying to figure out approximately how many active collectors collect those years specifically.

I realize that there are some who collect baseball cards across the board -- modern, vintage, tobacco, photos, etc. Would it be safe to assume they are a minority compared to the number of collectors who focus 99% on just 1 era of cards, say ... modern only, or, tobacco only?

[JunkyJoe]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

... I really don't think that the massive product creation every season in every sport is absorbed by five figures or even six figures worth of collectors. If you drill down all the way to kids who collect this year's cards and work up from there to the whackos like me who go to every show where cards might be available and spend an inordinate amount of time surfing the net for cards, I'd guess the numbers are a lot larger than the 'census' of hardcore collectors who are active on boards and who attend the National.

I agree, there are tons of younger collectors of modern cards. I'm sure there are even plenty of older modern collectors. And yes, there does seem to be a strong market for the newer cards.

As far as younger people who will eventually collect vintage cards years down the road --- that's a whole other conversation, and a whole other set of metrics. For now though, let's disregard the creation of new product, and also disregard cards from other sports, just for the sake of this specific topic.

So, focusing solely on current annual sales of Postwar-to-1980 baseball cards, how many of those show attendees do you think we can exclude (for now at least) as being modern card collectors?