Black Swamp Find E98 set break

[T206Collector]

I'm a little confused by the "Black Swamp Find" and this latest auction highlights my concern.

The original poster said "I feel bad to the owner who owned the nicest E98 set from Black Swamp Find losing $200k+ in 5 yrs." But, there were a number of E98s sold in this Memory Lane auction that were not previously sold (at least not publicly) through Heritage Auctions. There are a few examples, but here is the E98 Green Davis PSA 7:

https://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/...e?itemid=44260

The PSA Serial Number 19872196 appropriately places this Davis within the Davis E98 Swamp population based on the sales of that card through Heritage, but you will notice that it never appears in their prior listings:

https://www.ha.com/c/search-results....rch-A-K-071316

I also do not think it came from a previously sold SGC version (but, I could be proven wrong on this, I suppose, if someone has contrary evidence).

In short, it does look like to me that a number of these E98 Swamp cards had not previously been sold to the public. But not only do I not think this was necessarily the "nicest E98 set" -- which was sold here and may very well still be together somewhere....

The Near Set that Heritage Sold as a Group:
https://sports.ha.com/itm/baseball/1...ription-071515

The Color Variations that Heritage Sold as a Group:
https://sports.ha.com/itm/baseball/1...ription-071515

...but we don't really know how the consignor to Memory Lane did based on a prior sale of many of the cards.

Still, I don't really take issue with the notion of the prices going down so hard lately. I am more interested in whether there is some funny business going on in terms of additional "new" E98 Swamp cards being "leaked" into the public in different ways in an attempt to address the concerns raised about maximizing sale prices -- e.g., by not going only through Heritage and in this case going through Memory Lane.

Any thoughts?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

I'm a little confused by the "Black Swamp Find" and this latest auction highlights my concern.

The original poster said "I feel bad to the owner who owned the nicest E98 set from Black Swamp Find losing $200k+ in 5 yrs." But, there were a number of E98s sold in this Memory Lane auction that were not previously sold (at least not publicly) through Heritage Auctions. There are a few examples, but here is the E98 Green Davis PSA 7:

https://memorylaneinc.com/site/bids/...e?itemid=44260

The PSA Serial Number 19872196 appropriately places this Davis within the Davis E98 Swamp population based on the sales of that card through Heritage, but you will notice that it never appears in their prior listings:

https://www.ha.com/c/search-results....rch-A-K-071316

I also do not think it came from a previously sold SGC version (but, I could be proven wrong on this, I suppose, if someone has contrary evidence).

In short, it does look like to me that a number of these E98 Swamp cards had not previously been sold to the public. But not only do I not think this was necessarily the "nicest E98 set" -- which was sold here and may very well still be together somewhere....

The Near Set that Heritage Sold as a Group:
https://sports.ha.com/itm/baseball/1...ription-071515

The Color Variations that Heritage Sold as a Group:
https://sports.ha.com/itm/baseball/1...ription-071515

...but we don't really know how the consignor to Memory Lane did based on a prior sale of many of the cards.

Still, I don't really take issue with the notion of the prices going down so hard lately. I am more interested in whether there is some funny business going on in terms of additional "new" E98 Swamp cards being "leaked" into the public in different ways in an attempt to address the concerns raised about maximizing sale prices -- e.g., by not going only through Heritage and in this case going through Memory Lane.

Any thoughts?

I would be shocked if the M L ones were new to the hobby. I am willing to bet they are retreads.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Leon

I would be shocked if the M L ones were new to the hobby. I am willing to bet they are retreads.

Maybe I'm getting mixed up by some combination of the PSA pop report, the consecutive serial numbers, a few that were graded by SGC (either first run, or retread), and other re-grades or re-submissions.

PSA has 17 Green Davis BSF in their pop reports. 15 of those can be attributed to the following serial numbers from Heritage Auction history:

2179
[GAP]
2181
[GAP]
2183
2184
2185
[GAP]
2187
2188
2189
2190
2191
2192
2193
2194
2195
[GAP] --> Memory Lane 2196
2199 --> this largest serial number (and apparently last in the grouping) was part of this auction from 2012 -- when the Find started going live on Heritage:

https://sports.ha.com/itm/baseball/1...ription-071515


Basically, there are a few gaps here -- and one of the gaps just showed up in Memory Lane. Maybe it's a cross-over or re-holder, but does PSA leave gaps in its serial numbers for just such an occasion? Seems unlikely to me.

[tbob]

I remember well when I put together the first of several E98 sets that the highest grades (then) were 4s and 5s on some of the players. The current master set I have contains mostly 4s and 5s but there are several Black Swamp Find high graded cards mixed in. I patiently waited while the crazy prices for the early releases gradually slid down in to normalcy and paid a much more reasonable amount for 8's on several cards.
The one thing I wanted to chime in on are the orange and more specifically the blue backgrounds which weren't a part of the Black Swamp Find. While the prices on the reds have taken a nose dive with the BSF and many greens have followed suit, oranges have remained solid in their pricing and blues are continuing to climb. There are several blues which are extremely hard to find in high grade and even some which are difficult to find in 4 or 5.
Oh well, as long as a huge cache of E94s don't show up in a "White Rock Find" I'm good.

[egbeachley]

I believe the family told Heritage that they did NOT want the cards slowly released to maximize results as they thought it would be unfair to trick the first buyers into paying more.

Possibly a few were held back per the wishes of a family member who wanted to keep a few? Then he decided to sell?

[Leon]

Originally Posted by egbeachley

I believe the family told Heritage that they did NOT want the cards slowly released to maximize results as they thought it would be unfair to trick the first buyers into paying more.

Possibly a few were held back per the wishes of a family member who wanted to keep a few? Then he decided to sell?

They did tell them that.
A few could have been held back but I don't think so. That family, with whom I met several of its members including the main gentleman dealing with the collection, were stellar folks and no way in heck would have played shenanigans or not been truthful. No way....I think they all came out in Heritage and are being traded after that from different venues and, sometimes, different holders.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by Leon

They did tell them that.
A few could have been held back but I don't think so. That family, with whom I met several of its members including the main gentleman dealing with the collection, were stellar folks and no way in heck would have played shenanigans or not been truthful. No way....I think they all came out in Heritage and are being traded after that from different venues and, sometimes, different holders.

Not suggesting that they're not being truthful or that they're being sneaky. I have exchanged a few correspondence with the family as well, and understand that their deal with Heritage was for 5 years, which expired this year. This would also be consistent with trying to sell some they had initially decided to keep. There were an awful lot of family members with vested interests in the collection. It wouldn't be at all surprising to keep a set or two for the family in memorium and then five years later -- once Heritage ran dry -- decide it's time to move on for any good reason or other.

The "different holders" argument doesn't make a lot of sense to me given the way the serial numbers -- that appear to have been set in a specific order in 2012 -- line up with the gaps I described above.

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by egbeachley

Possibly a few were held back per the wishes of a family member who wanted to keep a few? Then he decided to sell?

That would be my guess as well -- that someone in the family (or with pre-Heritage access) decided to sell, and went with an auction house other than Heritage to sell. I thought I saw some in the Memory Lane auction that had previously been sold through Heritage, but a quick glance at a few suggests I might be wrong about that...