Kris Bryant overrated?... too soon for they hype?

[bn2cardz]

I know it is early in the season, but the Kris Bryant stats we are seeing thus far are what I was expecting to see. Sure he could just be in a slump, but the main thing is that he actually is hitting the same stats as last year except his BABIP has fallen to what is considered the average.

With 6 games under his belt he had a similar BB%, but his K% had dropped by 10%, that means if he had the same luck as last year his AVG should have been higher... but he isn't seeing the same luck and his BABIP dropped to .300 from last year's staggering .378. When his BABIP his average dropped with it bringing him to .231. If he hits more home runs through the season the lower batting average can be forgiven, but that only goes so far, ask Adam Dunn. Kris Bryant has very similar stats to Adam Dunn with the exception of a very high BABIP in 2015.



An interesting article from Feb that goes more into what I was trying to explain.
http://www.cubsinsider.com/kris-brya...te-lucky-2015/

[Peter_Spaeth]

Your sophistication with the numbers is appreciated but it seems meaningless to me to say anything at all about someone's season after 6 games. He could have one good game tonight and the numbers would look dramatically different.

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Your sophistication with the numbers is appreciated but it seems meaningless to me to say anything at all about someone's season after 6 games. He could have one good game tonight and the numbers would look dramatically different.

Oh I know. I almost didn't post it because I knew that could be the argument. I am not saying that this season is going to be all lost and this is proof. My point was only that if his BABIP stays in the "normal" area as it has in the past 7 games, yet he doesn't improve his K% than this is the type of stats you will see from him more than not.

I believe he will be hitting home runs but I really don't see his future being any more productive than Adam Dunn's. Adam Dunn's 2010 season may be a comparable to the best we can expect from Bryant from here on out. That wasn't a horrible season, but it benefited from a .329 BABIP. That isn't a bad number and is manageable for a career, but highly unlikely for a home run hitter.

[packs]

It doesn't matter how good you are, no one can survive in the league or experience prolonged success striking out more times than they get a hit.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

It doesn't matter how good you are, no one can survive in the league or experience prolonged success striking out more times than they get a hit.

Reggie Jackson had more strikeouts than hits.

[packs]

If you aspire to be Reggie Jackson, best of luck to you, Kris. He wasn't exactly the second coming of anything.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Jim Thome too.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

If you aspire to be Reggie Jackson, best of luck to you, Kris. He wasn't exactly the second coming of anything.

But he does disprove your statement about survival and prolonged success.

[chaddurbin]

i'm not a bryant guy at all, tbh i kind of don't like him...but comparing him to dunn is ludicrous. in that screengrab between bryant and dunn there's one thing that should totally stand out to differentiate the two...dunn never put up a WAR season ever that compared to bryant's rookie year! the argument pretty much stops there.

and yes extreme small sample size bias. he may not be harper or trout, but he'll be fine. the pitchers make adjustments, and it seems like bryant is already changing his approach. chicago's front office have very smart people working who are in-tuned with advanced metrics that even we don't know about and probably have built various models pertaining to bryant's career. he's in good hands.