NL Cy Young Award?

[the 'stache]

Thank you, Raymond. That's a great explanation! /tip of the cap to you, good sir.

I tell you, I'm really torn. If I had a gun held to my head, I don't know who I'd choose. I honestly don't. The really frustrating thing to me, as somebody who is a complete statistics nut (I know, you guys couldn't tell), I can sit down and make an argument for all three of them.

Jake Arrieta has the big numbers. He's the only guy in the NL with 20 wins, and one of two pitchers in the game this year with a sub 2.00 ERA. While he wasn't as good in the first half (10-6, 2.66 ERA, 123 K in 121 2/3 IP, a 0.986 WHIP), that's still a damned good first half. So while it's not really a check in the plus column, it's not a negative, either. I know logic tells us all games count the same, and a win in April is important as a win in September. But is it really? Lose a game in the first week of the season, oh well, you'll get 'em tomorrow. Win a big game at the very end of the season, not only does the pitcher carry confidence into the playoffs, but that pitcher's team will get the biggest confidence boost their is. Why? Because if they're in a 5 game series, they know that pitcher will start two games. In a 7 game series, the pitcher could conceivably start three. And since the All Star break, Arrieta has been almost unhittable (12-1, 0.75 ERA, 113 K in 117 1/3 IP, 0.727 WHIP). He has the best overall numbers of anybody in the Majors this year, and he has been historically good at the right time.

Zack Greinke has been the picture of consistency. 19-3, 1.66 ERA, 200 Ks in 222 2/3 IP, 0.844 WHIP. Best ERA and WHIP in the Majors. To me, the most impressive statistic of all, one that I don't recall ever seeing before, is that Greinke's ERA never went above 2.00 at any point the entire season. It topped out at 1.97 on June 2nd. And when he had his huge shutout streak going, he should have won at least one more game, which would have given him 20. On June 18th, he pitched 7 innings of shutout ball, but left with the score tied 0-0. The Dodgers won it 1-0. On June 23rd, he pitched 6 innings of shutout ball, but the Dodgers didn't score. They lost 0-1. 13 shutout innings he pitched, but the Dodgers didn't give him a single run of support. But his shutout streak was magnificent. 4-0, 45 2/3 IP, 43 strikeouts, 4 BB, 19 hits, a 10.75 K:BB ratio, and a 0.503 WHIP. That's insane. Opponents hit .124 off of him over those 6 games.

Kershaw was just sheer dominance. 301 Ks, 11.6 Ks/9 IP, a 0.881 WHIP, 7.17 K:BB, 16-7, 2.13 ERA for the season. 4 complete games and 3 shutouts, which tied with Jake Arrieta for the league lead. I know the win-loss record and ERA aren't as impressive as the other two. But I've been looking at Kershaw's starts from the beginning of the season, and it seems that his team let him down on more occasions than the other two starters were let down. Like Greinke, Kershaw had a long scoreless streak. 37 2/3 IP where he was 4-0, threw 2 shutouts (and could have easily had a third. He was pulled after 8 innings of 3 hit, 0 walk, 14 K shutout ball at Washington, and had only thrown 101 innings). His numbers during the streak are as impressive as Greinke's: 18 hits, 1 walk, 50 Ks, a 50:1 K:BB ratio, and a 0.510 WHIP. Opponents hit .140 off of him.

Any one of them would be a deserving winner.