Do you worry about our hobby dying?

[freakhappy]

Do I worry about our hobby dying...not at all. What I do believe is that it will probably change with time, like a lot of things do. When I was growing up in the 80's and 90's, collecting baseball cards wasn't something you did because you thought about the amount of money a card was worth or resell necessarily, you did it because you loved baseball and being able to collect your favorite players and team made it worth your while. It's a lot different nowadays...a great deal of people are solely in it for the money. There are people on this site that don't give a lick about baseball...couldn't tell you much history about the game throughout any decade, but they have stellar card collections...this is what worries me. Card collecting has become a money thing more than collecting, but I can't blame anyone as this is how the hobby has shifted for the most part. Card collecting used to be simple and enjoyable, now it's mostly about money and a card collector that actually does so for enjoyment is a rarity.

Me, personally...I don't think much about the state of the hobby, I'm just enjoying the ride. I will attempt to get my boys to like sports and possibly ball cards, but this isn't something I will try to force them to do. They are growing up in a different era and looking back, it was a whole lot different than thirty years ago...cards were easy to collect, a lot of kids collected them, they were relatively cheap to buy and you could do anything with them and have fun! Today everything is so condition sensitive, it drives me nuts!

I still collect modern cards, mainly a few players that I enjoyed when I was a kid...nothing like turning back the clock or obtaining the cards that you never thought you would be able to when you were a kid...priceless!

[the 'stache]

There is a romanticism to the game's early years that today's game will never have. You'll still have people that closely identify with the players they grew up watching, but Mike Trout will never have the mystique that Babe Ruth or Willie Mays had, and still have.

[barrysloate]

The hobby might get a little smaller, and prices certainly can soften a bit, but there will always be a market for baseball memorabilia, and there will always be people collecting cards, photographs, autographs, etc. It might not even be such a bad thing if there was a little retrenchment in the future. Prices for some things are incredibly high, and many collectors are priced out. A softening of the market might even make the hobby a little more accessible.

But the hobby won't die. It will merely seek its own level.

[mrvster]

T206 as a whole to be the major driving force of the future collecting of vintage baseball cards since they are so recognizable to the historians and layman thanks to wagner.........


T206 Rare backs, printer's scraps, rare variations, proofs, freaks, the Wagners, Planks, Doyles, Magies, rare combos will be the future of vintage collecting and will continue to appreciate over time in relative fashion as wagz...

and ojs, mayo's 19th cent. stuff will stay fairly consistent my predictions

[ValKehl]

I believe the sports card and memorabilia hobby/business will be just fine as long as:
(1) A significant % of people continue to be born with the "collecting gene", and
(2) A significant % of people continue to become keenly interested in the major team sports (and even more so for such folks who also have an interest in history).
Val

[Fred]

I wonder how many ball players follow the history of the game. I have to figure that not too many are avid collectors of cards and vintage memorabilia.

God bless David Wells. He bought a real Babe Ruth worn hat and wore (or attempted to wear it) in a real game.

[YankeeCollector]

Old soldiers never die, they just fade away!

[MattyC]

I think it'll be just fine; here's a pic of my son and I have little cousins just like him-- if I can get it to load up... Basically he's holding some Mantles. He also occasionally wakes me up to do an in house card show and sell me cards (and toy guns, an interesting mix) And I gotta think where there's a few there's more.

The kids in my extended family just love baseball and cards. My boy's first word was "Mi-Ma" for Mickey Mantle, I guess because he heard me and my brother and cousins talking baseball so much. He even insists on calling Don Mattingly, Mantle, and Shoeless Joe on his toy cell phone before T-ball class.

[glynparson]

It is in a school district with a pretty good baseball history. But she often has a student or two that are pretty rabid card collectors. She has even more that collect gaming cards of some type. I think the hobby is fine. It is changing but it is not dying.

[z28jd]

If there wasn't a market for cards, I don't think multiple companies would continue to put out cards each year. Topps has at least five different sets they put out. Someone must be buying them.

I know I always go to the local minor league team when they give out their team sets(limited to 2000) and last year I sold two of them for $15 apiece and this year they are selling for the same amount. Minor league baseball is as popular as ever and every team at the upper levels puts out team sets.

I think a good thing that these companies do for the future is include cards of old stars. You could find at least ten different cards of Ty Cobb from 2014 sets. That gets kids interested in Cobb and when they have enough money, maybe they go out and buy one of his T206 cards

[SteveMitchell]

My concern is not about the hobby dying. It has definitely changed since the days of 300+ page SCD's and 100,000 National Convention attendees. I'm more concerned about the economic outlook for the United States in particular and the world generally.

[bobbyw8469]

Originally Posted by SteveMitchell

My concern is not about the hobby dying. It has definitely changed since the days of 300+ page SCD's and 100,000 National Convention attendees. I'm more concerned about the economic outlook for the United States in particular and the world generally.

Amen brother.

[alaskapaul3]

My two cents :There is no immediate concern, but

For those of us that still have brick and mortar card stores to go to.....when you stop in , do you see a lot of kids in the store ? Of the kids that are in the store, how many of them are going through baseball cards versus football and basketball and Pokemon cards. The young posters on this thread made some very valid points.

Coin collecting had a serious upturn in the past 15 years with the production of the state quarters. It caught the kid's interest and cost next to nothing for them to start. My guess is some of those kids will be buying slabbed coins 20 years from now, and not just 21st century coins , but also 18th,19th and 20th century coins as they have more of a budget to do so. Cheap packs of cards from the card companies would be a good way of ensuring future collectors in the hobby.

-Paul

[packs]

I don't think this has been brought up in the thread yet.

For all of you who think the hobby will be fine, what do you think about the emergence of card museums and the same dealers at every show?

I've been going to White Plains shows for years. I rarely ever see a new vintage dealer. It is always the same five or six guys with the same material with the same stickers on them.

If the hobby is going to be fine and new blood will always pour in, how come there aren't any new dealers? Maybe this is just a product of White Plains. But I get the feeling there is stale blood at all the shows based on the post-show reports I read for other areas.

[ullmandds]

I have voiced my skepticism regarding the future of the hobby numerous times...ask archive! I think the rarities and hobby icons should be ok for the foreseeable future...although I DO feel that down the road...maybe 20-40 yrs from now there will be a glut of vintage...especially the common/not so desirable stuff which may drag down values across the board.

The hobby needs something new and exciting to drag youngsters with the collecting gene into the hobby.

Like at the very least all ballparks should give away cards to the kids atleast one time/yr(giveaway day). Or offer a card to every kid upon entering every or select home games with some form of lottery/raffle/prize/interactive activity at stake.

I think a "grassroots" movement at the ballparks could help.

[packs]

I think the T206 is a time bomb. By now nearly everyone who wants a monster must have made a significant dent. And even if they haven't, I feel like they're out numbered by people who have. Once those sets hit the market 5 to 10 years from now, expect T206's to tank. Once the premier vintage set tanks, I'd expect all other vintage sets to tank too.

I think it would be really cool if they found some way to imitate the success of early sets. Perhaps they could create a set of cards distributed in something children buy. Maybe MLB teams up with Mead or some other school supplies manufacturer and distributes a set during back to school season.

[glenv]

I agree with those that posted that we need cards that kids can afford. But it's hard for a kid to be happy with a 99 cent pack of plain cardboard when they see the shiny $5 pack. And what happened to the days of finding baseball cards in cereal boxes, on Hostess boxes, getting them from police officers, etc.? Are any national products still using cards as a promotion?

Like Pete said - : "Like at the very least all ballparks should give away cards to the kids at least one time/yr(giveaway day)."

[AMBST95]

The hobby will probably take a hit as the 20 and 30 somethings age and the older population dies off. Card collecting is less popular among kids for the last 10-20 years.

It will become more of a niche market but the market will be there. As mentioned earlier, card show attendance, brick and mortars, are all falling to the wayside. The business model just isn't good.

To judge the growth of the hobby though, how many new online venues are there for buying cards (ebay, auction houses, etc). There is definitely a market and that won't go away. It just is different now and the way to do business is different and will continue to change in the future.

Prices will probably hold steady but value will drop due to inflation. That's my prediction.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by packs

I think the T206 is a time bomb. By now nearly everyone who wants a monster must have made a significant dent. And even if they haven't, I feel like they're out numbered by people who have. Once those sets hit the market 5 to 10 years from now, expect T206's to tank. Once the premier vintage set tanks, I'd expect all other vintage sets to tank too.

I think it would be really cool if they found some way to imitate the success of early sets. Perhaps they could create a set of cards distributed in something children buy. Maybe MLB teams up with Mead or some other school supplies manufacturer and distributes a set during back to school season.

Not so sure about this. The Monster Number Thread was initially populated with a lot of old sets (~old money). In three years the number of new collectors have increased year over year. Some sets have been sold and quickly absorbed by the young and the restless (and you know who you are).

The internet has changed the hobby, but I think for the better. TPGs have changed the hobby and facilitate the internet market despite their shortcomings. Old cards are antiques. I never saw a prewar card when I was a kid growing up in 50s. Babe Ruth et al seemed like ancient history then. Now I seem like ancient history. The vintage card market will survive into the foreseeable future.

What folks will be paying for Bowman Chrome RCs from 2012 one hundred years from now is another completely different topic.

[packs]

I don't know. I've been collecting pre-war for a long time though I'm relatively young for the Board. Ten years ago I knew guys who collected T206s but none that were monster hunters in the sense that we see today, where a guy might buy 60 cards in a month.

Precisely because the internet has made everything easier, people are putting this set together easier. More finished sets mean less people buying. Add to that the number of people who are racing to finish their set and the inevitable: you get bored with it and want to liquidate. I think 5 to 10 years from now you're going to see a sell off en masse of monsters.

[mark evans]

I'm not worried about the hobby dying because I'm 65 years old.

But, if I were 35, I think I might be concerned about the potential for a reduction in values in the foreseeable future due to the passing on of the baby boomers, possibly coupled with a general downturn in the economy. On the first point, I believe there are simply too many diversions for today's youth (and have been since the 70s) to create the demand necessary to maintain current values, especially as adjusted for inflation. I also think that rarities will hold their value longer than readily available cards.

[campyfan39]

I will be extremely interested to see what happens in about 20-30 years if I am still around (I'm 41) as many second generation collector's private collections may hit the market.
A lot of us are children of the father's who got into this thing back in the 80's in part to recapture their childhood. Who knows what our kids will do with all we have amassed?

[packs]

I think video game systems are the modern investment to make. Working Nintendo's, Genesis, N64's and the most popular games for them.

It's the same principal: connecting with your youth. The majority of people from my generation spent a ridiculous amount of time playing video games during their childhood.

[1952boyntoncollector]

There are many people who say in 20 years there could be a problem in terms of keeping any value...noone will ever say 5 years..when its a point where people say 5 years then they would be selling asap like it was tomorrow....massive run to the bank

so basically like all worries....its either 20 years down the line or immediate.....i think we are all good for 20 years...

[Texxxx]

I am more worried about me being put under than the hobby getting buried. If the cards tank before I go then it just means I can buy a lot more.

[ooo-ribay]

I think it will die, but I don't really care, as I collect for enjoyment, not for investment.

[exitmusicgreen]

Very interesting thread. I'm a 31-year-old collector who returned to the hobby late last year after about a 21-year hiatus. I know I'm not the only one.. in particular, many "born again" collectors stumble upon the world of modern cards via searching for collectibles of their favorite players via ebay, then finding it odd that modern cards are selling at unimagined prices, then doing research. That moment when things make sense opens up a whole new world.

So I think modern collecting has a role in producing + sustaining future interest.

As some have pointed out, the allure of vintage can emerge given the oft-maddening unpredictability of modern cards. I still collect modern due to the excitement factor plus feeling very connected to the game's current crop of players. But my (tiny yet growing) vintage collection gives me equal, if not more pride.

[bravesfan22]

Modern card collecting is very popular. Prospects are what people collect the most now, well invest in i should say. However even the "investors" usually have a player or team that they collect as well. The prospect buy and sell usually is what funds their personal collection pieces.

If you get on the blowout cards board or just look at ebay at modern topps or panini certified autograph card prices then you will see the hobby is alive in kicking and this side of the hobby holds a wide age group. Also a big bonus is I see a lot of parents that are involved with the hobby sharing it with their kids and doing the hobby together. Which is great!

I'm 26 and i mainly dabble in modern cards but my love for the history of baseball brought me to this board and started to get me into vintage cards as well. I think as people around my age learn more about the modern cards they end up looking into the vintage cards and wanting to learn and maybe collect them as well so I would say as long as card collecting on some aspect is happening then people will always end up supporting vintage cards as well.

I think the biggest movement we may see is people getting into vintage football cards instead of baseball due to the popularity of the NFL and modern football cards but who knows.

Between topps, bowman, panini and leaf there are well over 20 baseball products out per year. Same with football and basketball probably has atleast 10 products if not more and people open these by the case not just the box. I actually think the hobby is getting more popular in recent years thanks to things like case breaks. So again I guess to sum it up I think as long as modern card collecting is doing well their will be a steady flow of new vintage collecters as well. Just like most things, you start with the new stuff but you always go back to the roots.

-Adam

[mrvster]

great perspective

[yankees23]

I'm 36 and like others, just started collecting again about 3 years ago. I don't think cards will ever in my lifetime become completely irrelevant. As long as there are a few collectors prices will always at least hold. Look at the prices nowadays compared to 20 years ago when there was so many more collectors...not a huge difference. Collecting of anything is booming now partly IMO because of the ease of buying online. I watched a collectors show recently featuring Corbin Bernsen and his snow globe collection. They valued his collection at like $600k. How many snow globe collectors are out there? If snow globes can keep their value baseball cards will be fine.

[SAllen2556]

The hobby won't die. Ever. There's way too many geeky people like all of us too enamored in the history of baseball and history itself. And that will never change. People like old stuff - they always have and they always will. Hell, people collect old barbed wire for crying out loud!

The big advantage kids have today is the internet and the instant access to learning. The history of the Detroit Tigers is a click away. And that allure is powerful. I can learn how Gehringer, Cochrane, and Greenberg brought Detroit its first world championship and soon enough the thought of owning a card, or a photo, or an autograph of that player will lure me in. In short, there will always be new collectors of old stuff.

And with the technology of today I can buy a card from a guy in Florida after examining it in a hi-res scan and then have it shipped right to my door, all at a competitive price.

The internet with ebay and sites like this have put virtual museums right in front of our eyes - expert opinions and access to research all included. And the technology will only get better. I suspect that one day in the future we will be able to accurately date cards and detect alterations as well as absolutely verify autographs, all for cheap.

Think about it, 25 years ago if you wanted to buy a '34 Charlie Gehringer Goudey card or a Mantle signed baseball, how exactly would you have gone about it? And how risky would the venture have been? Go to a show? Mail order?

Parting thought: I wouldn't worry (or care) if every card company went out of business tomorrow. I don't think it would have any negative effect on the value of someone's collection.

[packs]

Funny you should mention barbed wire. I'm reading "Inherent Vice" by Thomas Pynchon right now and there's a detective character in it that brags about the pristine barbed wire he just bought for his collection.

[tschock]

Originally Posted by yankees23

I watched a collectors show recently featuring Corbin Bernsen and his snow globe collection. They valued his collection at like $600k. How many snow globe collectors are out there? If snow globes can keep their value baseball cards will be fine.

These "appraisals" always have to be taken with a grain of salt and understand what they are really saying here. There is a HUGE difference between sale value and replacement value. In this instance as an example, I doubt he would get close to $600K if he sold his collection, but it could easily cost him $600K to put this collection together should he need to replace it.

I think many times the amount seems high because those touting the value are referring to replacement (intentional or not).

[1880nonsports]

and prices dropping while sharing common elements and dependencies are two different things. Price fluctuations and availabilty are each a function of the other after the imact of an economy. I think the hobby as a tangent of all collectibles will go on forever as beyond being a commodity cards are a somwhat tangible piece of the past. I doubt card collecting will ever approach the levels of the cash rich 1980's and 1990's nor the level of interest it received as a new investment concept. It was an explosive time - selling was about the sizzle AND the steak. Enough time and a few reality checks have precipitated in the OVERALL decline of the prices we are experiencing in all but the finest material and whatever specific issues are "hot" at the moment.
Lower prices at some point restricts cards from coming to the market so it's a good thing/ bad thing for me as a collector. As a dealer - at least in theory - one's buying is dictated by the availabilty of the product their customers will pay for.
The hobby isn't dying - just experiencing a correction. I do see it becoming a smaller hobby - perhaps mirroring the journey of stamps and coins. Cards, coins, bottle-caps, and similar things from pre-hyper-technological times were more of an activity for the participants - more relevent as well.
Please feel free to provide me with details when and if the end comes as I'll want to let the person holding my N167 Buffalo Bill know. In any event I suppose I'll continue to collect until the question of my demise is broached. Hopefully not on a thread in a chat board The best thing about having a lot of people doing the same thing you are is you feel less stupid but it also makes the room crowded.

[yankees23]

Originally Posted by tschock

These "appraisals" always have to be taken with a grain of salt and understand what they are really saying here. There is a HUGE difference between sale value and replacement value. In this instance as an example, I doubt he would get close to $600K if he sold his collection, but it could easily cost him $600K to put this collection together should he need to replace it.

I think many times the amount seems high because those touting the value are referring to replacement (intentional or not).

I agree these appraisals are usually inflated but I was just illustrating the point that other collectibles that are not anywhere near as popular as baseball cards still seem to hold their value. On that same show there was a guy who collected vintage phones and his collection was appraised at like $200k. Seems like anything that is "vintage" is being collected these days.

[Bosox Blair]

Originally Posted by 1880nonsports

I doubt card collecting will ever approach the levels of the cash rich 1980's and 1990's nor the level of interest it received as a new investment concept. It was an explosive time - selling was about the sizzle AND the steak. Enough time and a few reality checks have precipitated in the OVERALL decline of the prices we are experiencing in all but the finest material and whatever specific issues are "hot" at the moment.

Since the question was posted on the Pre-War forum, I'm assuming the "hobby" refers to collecting Pre-War cards.

If this is the case, I don't understand the quote above at all. I was collecting these cards in the 1980s and 1990s. I can't think of any baseball card made between 1887 and 1930 that could be had for less today than it could have been in the 1980s or 1990s. The prices continued to explode through until about the Fall of 2008. Even when the market for these cards "crashed" in 2008, the prices were still a heck of a lot higher than they were back in the 1980s and 1990s. And today a lot of those cards are way up from 2008-2009 again.

Cards from the major sets of the 1930s did soften when people realized they were not that scarce. In truth, I think some 1933 Goudey and 1934-36 Diamond Stars actually sold for more in the late 1990s then they would fetch today - especially commons and low-level stars and HOFers.

The part of the "hobby" that died in the 1990s was largely comprised of thousands of speculators trading case quantities of 1989 Upper Deck, 1987 Donruss and the like. When that garbage pile collapsed, those people left. So what? Good riddance.

The value of Pre-War cards was not hurt a bit by any of that.

Cheers,
Blair