Black Swamp Find?

[Matt]

Originally Posted by msohn

I agree - that was poorly written. I am using a relative value approach.

If this Black Swamp Find had just a single E98 Ty Cobb that graded PSA 9, it would probably be worth >$200,000. In this case, this magnificent find produced a mind boggling 16 copies earning a PSA 9 grade. On the one hand, you have one of the earliest and rarest (until now) and finest examples of a Ty Cobb. On the other hand, there are now 16 of these beauties, not just one or two.

Can the market absorb 16 of these cards? I think so. As a comparison, I looked at the 1915 Cracker Jack set, where PSA has graded 8 Ty Cobb cards in PSA 8, 2 in PSA 8.5 and 1 in PSA 9. Despite having a population of 8 copies in PSA 8, this Cobb should be able to command $20,000 to $25,000 if offered for sale (SMR value = $23,000).

So given the significant of the E98 card, and its pristine condition, my bet would be that Heritage could release these cards into the market at $25,000. However, the upside to this card is clearly capped, at what level, I don't know.

There are differences in your comparison that are so wide you could drive a truck through them. The Cracker Jack issue is significantly more popular an issue then this one, to the point it's not even comparable. Even if the demand was the same, talking about pre-war cards, a population of 8 is also very different than a population of 25. Other than the supply being significantly higher and the demand being significantly lower, your analogy is spot on.