Market for Pre War Cards -How far down is down?

Dear Fellow Board Members

Market Softening- It is difficult for us to discern price movements because we only bid on 150 items per year. Most of these items are quite expensive (thus a limited collector market). However, our sense is that prices on high grade type cards,better grade E & T cards are off 20% from their 2008 peak. Common Goudeys and in Cracker Jacks, even in PSA 8/ SGC88, are also down 20-25% from their mid 2008 levels.

It appears that mid-grade common cards are off 35% and lower grade more common cards from the 30s, 40's are down close to 40's. Cards from the 50's and 60's, especially those which are not investment grade (8+) are off 50-70%.

Other than the uncertain economic climate, to what do you attribute the market drop? If June 2008 was an index of 100, and we are now somewhere between 65-80- when do you see a positive change?

It seems to us that some of the large investors have pulled back. The off the wall prices on E Bay's Buy it Now (2-3x) reality give the collector/investor a sense that the market is risky, even if it is only a hobby.

Do you believe that the FBI investigations have had any impact on card prices? Has it acted as a deterrent from encouraging new collectors to invest in expensive baseball cards?

Finally, what items (sets, cards, condition rarities) appear to be bucking the trend? How do you see the pre WWII baseball card market in 2011-2012?

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List
bdorskind@dorskindgroup.com