Dean's Cards Discounts

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Vintage Vern

So lets say this card is somewhat rare, has a decent number of cards on the registry, less then 20 total, and out of those only 5 are 4 or higher, 6 being the highest, and this card is the highest graded. It's a common, not a HOF player. Will it help those same player cards graded lower, and other common players in that same grade as well as higher or lower grades, along with HOFers or will the effect be ignored? It's a card that may shows up every four or five years at best, and many times longer, but until one that grades higher will be the best example registered.

I know it's somewhat subjective because each player's cards are different in total numbers, and grades. Just curious as how the market moves, and how prices tend to rise. It has to start someplace.

I would argue that what you're describing is not really a market, simply because the trades are so infrequent. So I think it would be a mistake to expect it to function like your average market that trades on a regular basis, like the market for a gallon of milk or a 1987T Mark McGwire.

Instead, you really have to live with the fact that it's a very different animal. For someone who owns one, it's difficult to value. For someone who wants to buy one, it's hard to say how much you'll have to pay. We can all probably guess at a range, but until one sells, we're all just guessing. Every once in a while you'll get a tantalizing glimpse of what the value could be when one sells. But the next day, that data will be old and cold.

And as a practical matter, price for items that are that rare and difficult to find will always be a function of how much a buyer is willing to pay on that day for that copy, and whether a seller is willing to let it go for that price. If you get a really motivated seller who has to sell today to a dealer to cover their mortgage, then they're not going to get very much. Or if the owner takes it to auction, then it might sell for a relatively low price, particularly if it gets overlooked by a lot of the heavy hitters. And if you have a really motivated buyer (with cash to burn) with no one really willing to sell, then the buyer might need (in effect) to be willing to keep bidding against themselves for a while before a seller decides that they'll sell at that price.

Perfect example of this dynamic for you. I have a card that is 1 of 4 that are known to exist (apparently an uncut sheet is coming to market soon, which could make it 1 of 5). Mine happens to be the highest graded, and barring some TPG shenanigans with the uncut sheet, it should stay that way. It's a well-known issue that is a bit of a grail card, so it's not some obscure and poorly understood issue. If you wanted to try to buy one today, you would probably have to be willing to pay a lot, probably at least 50-100% over what most of us would guess as the market price, which would be a lot of dough, just to pry one out of the hands of one of the current owners. But if one came to auction tomorrow, you would still have to pay a lot for it, but probably not 50-100% over what we might guess is the current market value, unless some other bidder decided to go nuts bidding against you because they had to have it.

And if you wanted to buy mine, you would probably need to be willing to pay about 20x the current market value before I would seriously consider letting it go. Naturally, no one in their right mind would pay that much, so my copy is staying right where it belongs in my collection.