How many fake autographs out there?

[Deertick]

Originally Posted by BillyCox3

It's a source of personal annoyance whenever I see some news reporter saying "90% of all autographs in today's marketplace are fake" with an air of authority. First of all, they know nothing about the subject matter; they're just doing a news story. Secondly, no matter how hard anyone tries, regardless of how much knowledge they may have, an indisputable percentage will never be properly ascertained. It's impossible.

I can say, however, that when taking every athlete's autograph into consideration, the total figure is nowhere near 90%.

Remember, we are talking about counterfeit pieces, not secretarials, not rubber stamps, not autopens, not clubhouse. While those are not authentic, neither are they forgeries. They also represent such a small percentage of the overall number of signed pieces in existence. There's just no way that forgeries account for the 90% figure that's so effortlessly thrown around by the media.

Michael Jordan? Mantle? Lots.

Bobby Shantz? Virgil Trucks? Not so much.

Will somebody forge a nearly valueless autograph? Certainly. I've seen a three inch stack of fake Bob Feller 8X10's, yet the vast majority of his autographed material is of course free of problems.

I'm not sure I've seen many news reporters throwing around numbers they made up. Usually they are sourced from knowledgeable industry 'experts'. Anyone who says 50% of Ruth autos EVER. cannot be proven, since there is no way to get the total # of autographs of anyone in history. You are basing on a known existing number, which may be a fraction of the true population.
BUT if you say 50% of Ruth autos offered in May 2022, (or last year, or ending today on eBay) are inauthentic, the number may be easily defensible.

I'm not going to get into B.S. COA's or specific TPGs that seemed to be set up for scammers. But if any TPG certifies a photocopy, print, facsimile, stamp, secretarial, clubhouse, or autopen as authentic, that is a mistake that is made a very small percentage of the time overall. (some individual players have a higher incidence).

The OP asked about FAKE (inauthentic) autographs, which is different than FORGED autographs. Any photocopy, print, facsimile, stamp, secretarial, clubhouse, autopen, or non-malicious forgery, ALL get added to the side of FAKE with the actual forgeries when presented as authentic.

My reading of the OPs question was "What is the percentage of inauthentic autographs that are specifically on eBay at any given time?" NOT how many forgeries have been sold in relation to all possible autographs ever signed, or even a subset of fakes TPG slabbed in relation to the pop report.

Hope this makes some sense as I haven't had coffee yet.