OT: Did Adam Dunn ruin his Hall chances

[the 'stache]

Perezfan,

Actually, yes, statistics can and do accurately portray what players did in clutch situations.

You gave the example of Rod Carew never getting a clutch hit when it mattered, just tons of meaningless singles in blowouts and lopsided games.

Here is a link to Rod Carew's career splits, courtesy of Baseball Reference .com.

Actually, Rod Carew was a fantastic hitter in the very situations you said he was so poor in. Statistical analysis disproves your statements about Carew. Maybe you can reexamine your stance on statistical analysis in general.

First, examine Carew's career numbers when he came to bat with runners in scoring position:



Carew was a career .339 hitter with runners in scoring position. Quite simply, when men were on base, Rod Carew was the man you wanted at the plate, either to move the runners up further, or to drive them in.

What about clutch stats, breaking down the various situations?



Again, Rod Carew was outstanding. When he came to the plate with two outs, and runners in scoring position, he was a .310 hitter. When he came to the plate in a tie game, he was a .323 hitter. He was a .344 hitter when his team was ahead, and a .318 hitter when his team was behind. Carew has a phenomenal hitter in pretty much any situation you could think of.

Finally, in terms of leverage, Carew was again, outstanding. What is leverage? It is a quantification of the plays within a game that have the greatest impact on win probability. Doing well in high leverage situations means you are helping your team to win.

How did Carew do in the most critical points in games for his entire career? spectacularly. He was a career .318 hitter in high leverage situations. In plain English, this means that when Carew came to the plate during the most critical moments in a game, he came threw.



Any way you look at it, Rod Carew was actually a highly successful clutch hitter. He was not by any stretch of the imagination just a singles hitter who padded his stats in meaningless games.

Originally Posted by perezfan

Numbers like this are great, and are fun to analyze. But the exercise doesn't really portray what these players did in clutch situations.... when the game was on the line, and it really mattered most.

Rod carew, for example, probably exhibits pretty favorable numbers (admittedly, I'm just guessing). But I can't ever recall that guy getting a clutch hit, when it truly mattered. Yes- tons of meaningless singles in blowouts and lopsided games. But watching the Angels play day in and day out, I just can't recall one situation where he really came through in a nail-biter. Plus, I don't believe he ever played for a pennant-winner (another key factor not captured by the metrics).

Didn't necessarily mean to pick on Carew... he was a great hitter. To me it's more about the player's contribution to the team when it truly mattered. And subsequently, the feelings that player elicited from us as fans. I know none of this makes Dunn a Hall-of-Famer... it probably knocks him down a peg or two lower, if anything

Just saying there's more to it than the numbers can convey.