Has the Junk card era ended? If so, when?

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

I agree! Even the most determined set/subset collector would need to take a very focused rifle shot approach.

I grabbed a bunch of India rookies, because I really like him, and didn't come close to the complete rainbow.



I have gone for some of the smaller rainbows instead, like this complete Hunter Greene from Holiday, which includes the Gold Snowflake 1/1.

[KJA]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Never heard of the junk card era. There was a junk wax era. There appears to be a junk slab era, and probably a junk parallel era. But there have always been good cards in all eras.

If you are referring to the junk wax era, yes, it ended long ago. That era was defined by wax where the most expensive card you could pull was a base card with 3 million copies. While there is still a lot of junk in boxes, the inclusion of rare, desirable cards in products, at least leaves open the possibility for something nice in the wax.

Yes on junk parallel, I don't mind gold cards or parallels where I know what kind it is when I see it. Now I pull them and I have to look up what kind it is and most seem to be parallel's for the sake of parallel's. I think there are junk auto's also, sucks when the box hit is an auto of a guy I've never heard. But hey at least I pulled an auto I guess. I remember chasing the auto inserts of the early 90's and never pulled any but at least they were legendary players you had the chance to pull. Also cool inserts, like the Pro Vision insert set, not worth anything now but at least the cards looked cool.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by KJA

Yes on junk parallel, I don't mind gold cards or parallels where I know what kind it is when I see it. Now I pull them and I have to look up what kind it is and most seem to be parallel's for the sake of parallel's. I think there are junk auto's also, sucks when the box hit is an auto of a guy I've never heard. But hey at least I pulled an auto I guess. I remember chasing the auto inserts of the early 90's and never pulled any but at least they were legendary players you had the chance to pull. Also cool inserts, like the Pro Vision insert set, not worth anything now but at least the cards looked cool.

Agreed. It was amazing what happened with autos. In the early 90s, it was massively innovative, and we had rare chases that you had virtually no shot to pull one.



Then, in just a few short years, you had some legends on a short checklist that were much more easily pulled at 1:72 packs in 1995 Upper Deck.



Then in 1996, Donruss/Leaf changed the game by releasing Signature Series where there was one auto per pack. (this one is 1997, since Larkin wasn't in the 1996 set)



Now here we are where every prospect signs literally tens of thousands of cards in their career.

My prediction is that the focus will shift back to the rare inserts with innovative and cool designs like it was in the 90s. Long term, autos will become less desirable, and inserts will be sought after. It has already begun with sets like Home Field Advantage and Hidden Gems, etc... from Topps, and Kaboom and Downtown, etc... from Panini.

[ASF123]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Here are all the parallels in the regular Topps Chrome release:

Refractors – (1:3 hobby, 1:1 jumbo, 1:1 breaker, 1:4 value, 1:3 monster)
Pink Refractors – (1:4 value)
Prism Refractors – (1:6 hobby, 1:2 jumbo, 1:7 value, 1:7 monster)
RayWave Refractors – (1:9 value, 1:4 monster)
Sepia Refractors – (1:4 value)
X-Fractors – (1:1 monster)
Negative Refractors – (1:89 hobby, 1:27 jumbo, 1:3 breaker, 1:249 value, 1:101 monster)
Magenta Speckle Refractors – /350 (1:102 hobby, 1:31 jumbo, 1:3 breaker, 1:285 value, 1:116 monster)
Purple Speckle Refractors – /299 (1:119 hobby, 1:36 jumbo, 1:3 breaker, 1:334 value, 1:136 monster)
Sonar Purple Refractors – /275 (1:109 value, 1:73 monster)
Purple Refractors – /250 (1:143 hobby, 1:44 jumbo, 1:4 breaker, 1:403 value, 1:164 monster)
Aqua Refractors – /199 (1:179 hobby, 1:55 jumbo, 1:5 breaker, 1:503 value, 1:205 monster)
Aqua Lava Refractors – /199 (1:179 hobby, 1:55 jumbo, 1:5 breaker, 1:503 value, 1:205 monster)
RayWave Aqua Refractors – /199 (1:151 value, 1:101 monster)
Blue Refractors – /150 (1:238 hobby, 1:73 jumbo, 1:6 breaker, 1:669 value, 1:271 monster)
RayWave Blue Refractors – /150 (1:200 value, 1:134 monster)
Sonar Blue Refractors – /125 (1:285 hobby, 1:87 jumbo, 1:7 breaker, 1:804 value, 1:326 monster)
Lightboard Logo – (1:280 value, 1:140 monster)
Green Refractors – /99 (1:361 hobby, 1:110 jumbo, 1:9 breaker, 1:1,016 value, 1:413 monster)
Green Wave Refractors – /99 (1:185 hobby, 1:57 jumbo, 1:62 breaker)
RayWave Green Refractors – /99 (1:304 value, 1:203 monster)
Sonar Green Refractors – /99 (1:361 hobby, 1:110 jumbo, 1:9 breaker, 1:1,016 value, 1:413 monster)
Blue Wave Refractors – /75 (1:245 hobby, 1:76 jumbo, 1:82 breaker)
Gold Refractors – /50 (1:714 hobby, 1:218 jumbo, 1:18 breaker, 1:2,014 value, 1:817 monster)
Gold Wave Refractors – /50 (1:367 hobby, 1:113 jumbo, 1:122 breaker)
RayWave Gold Refractors – /50 (1:601 value, 1:402 monster)
Big Apple Refractors – less than 50 copies each (Fanatics Fest NYC boxes only)
Orange Refractors – /25 (1:388 hobby)
Orange Wave Refractors – /25 (1:733 hobby, 1:226 jumbo, 1:244 breaker)
RayWave Orange Refractors – /25 (1:1,201 value, 1:800 monster)
Black Refractors – /10 (1:1,833 hobby, 1:564 jumbo, 1:626 breaker)
RayWave Black Refractors – /10 (1:3,012 value, 1:2,013 monster)
Frozenfractors – /-5 (1:506 jumbo)
Red Refractors – /5 (1:7,117 hobby, 1:2,163 jumbo, 1:173 breaker, 1:20,184 value, 1:8,336 monster)
Red Wave Refractors – /5 (1:3,657 hobby, 1:1,127 jumbo, 1:1,251 breaker)
RayWave Red Refractors – /5 (1:6,024 value, 1:4,025 monster)
Printing Plates – 1/1 (1:8,896 hobby, 1:2,722 jumbo, 1:218 breaker, 1:25,281 value, 1:10,610 monster; each has Black, Cyan, Magenta and Yellow versions)
Superfractors – 1/1 (1:35,584 hobby, 1:11,011 jumbo, 1:834 breaker, 1:104,587 value, 1:40,062 monster)

Good lord. Does it say on the back of the card which of these 683 variations it is, or do you just have to make your best guess as to whether it’s a Red Wave Refractor or a Red Raywave Refractor?

Must be extraordinarily difficult for color-blind collectors nowadays!

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by ASF123

Good lord. Does it say on the back of the card which of these 683 variations it is, or do you just have to make your best guess as to whether it’s a Red Wave Refractor or a Red Raywave Refractor?



Must be extraordinarily difficult for color-blind collectors nowadays!

The patterns are fairly consistently named. So, if you know what a raywave pattern is, all you need to know is what color it is. And if you're color blind, you can go by the numbering. That said, even for people who are well-versed in ultra-modern parallels, it can be hard to distinguish a speckle from a mini-diamond, etc...

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Here are all the parallels in the regular Topps Chrome release:

Refractors – (1:3 hobby, 1:1 jumbo, 1:1 breaker, 1:4 value, 1:3 monster)
Pink Refractors – (1:4 value)
Prism Refractors – (1:6 hobby, 1:2 jumbo, 1:7 value, 1:7 monster)
RayWave Refractors – (1:9 value, 1:4 monster)
Sepia Refractors – (1:4 value)
X-Fractors – (1:1 monster)
Negative Refractors – (1:89 hobby, 1:27 jumbo, 1:3 breaker, 1:249 value, 1:101 monster)
Magenta Speckle Refractors – /350 (1:102 hobby, 1:31 jumbo, 1:3 breaker, 1:285 value, 1:116 monster)
Purple Speckle Refractors – /299 (1:119 hobby, 1:36 jumbo, 1:3 breaker, 1:334 value, 1:136 monster)
Sonar Purple Refractors – /275 (1:109 value, 1:73 monster)
Purple Refractors – /250 (1:143 hobby, 1:44 jumbo, 1:4 breaker, 1:403 value, 1:164 monster)
Aqua Refractors – /199 (1:179 hobby, 1:55 jumbo, 1:5 breaker, 1:503 value, 1:205 monster)
Aqua Lava Refractors – /199 (1:179 hobby, 1:55 jumbo, 1:5 breaker, 1:503 value, 1:205 monster)
RayWave Aqua Refractors – /199 (1:151 value, 1:101 monster)
Blue Refractors – /150 (1:238 hobby, 1:73 jumbo, 1:6 breaker, 1:669 value, 1:271 monster)
RayWave Blue Refractors – /150 (1:200 value, 1:134 monster)
Sonar Blue Refractors – /125 (1:285 hobby, 1:87 jumbo, 1:7 breaker, 1:804 value, 1:326 monster)
Lightboard Logo – (1:280 value, 1:140 monster)
Green Refractors – /99 (1:361 hobby, 1:110 jumbo, 1:9 breaker, 1:1,016 value, 1:413 monster)
Green Wave Refractors – /99 (1:185 hobby, 1:57 jumbo, 1:62 breaker)
RayWave Green Refractors – /99 (1:304 value, 1:203 monster)
Sonar Green Refractors – /99 (1:361 hobby, 1:110 jumbo, 1:9 breaker, 1:1,016 value, 1:413 monster)
Blue Wave Refractors – /75 (1:245 hobby, 1:76 jumbo, 1:82 breaker)
Gold Refractors – /50 (1:714 hobby, 1:218 jumbo, 1:18 breaker, 1:2,014 value, 1:817 monster)
Gold Wave Refractors – /50 (1:367 hobby, 1:113 jumbo, 1:122 breaker)
RayWave Gold Refractors – /50 (1:601 value, 1:402 monster)
Big Apple Refractors – less than 50 copies each (Fanatics Fest NYC boxes only)
Orange Refractors – /25 (1:388 hobby)
Orange Wave Refractors – /25 (1:733 hobby, 1:226 jumbo, 1:244 breaker)
RayWave Orange Refractors – /25 (1:1,201 value, 1:800 monster)
Black Refractors – /10 (1:1,833 hobby, 1:564 jumbo, 1:626 breaker)
RayWave Black Refractors – /10 (1:3,012 value, 1:2,013 monster)
Frozenfractors – /-5 (1:506 jumbo)
Red Refractors – /5 (1:7,117 hobby, 1:2,163 jumbo, 1:173 breaker, 1:20,184 value, 1:8,336 monster)
Red Wave Refractors – /5 (1:3,657 hobby, 1:1,127 jumbo, 1:1,251 breaker)
RayWave Red Refractors – /5 (1:6,024 value, 1:4,025 monster)
Printing Plates – 1/1 (1:8,896 hobby, 1:2,722 jumbo, 1:218 breaker, 1:25,281 value, 1:10,610 monster; each has Black, Cyan, Magenta and Yellow versions)
Superfractors – 1/1 (1:35,584 hobby, 1:11,011 jumbo, 1:834 breaker, 1:104,587 value, 1:40,062 monster)

Two questions:

1. Is there a base set in there somewhere? All those Parallels are to a base set of some sort, are they not?

2. How many cases of boxes would a collector need to open to get any kind of feel for what the issue is all about?

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

Two questions:



1. Is there a base set in there somewhere? All those Parallels are to a base set of some sort, are they not?



2. How many cases of boxes would a collector need to open to get any kind of feel for what the issue is all about?

1. Yes. Those are all parallels of the base set.

2. Opening boxes looking for specific cards is a fools errand. Most people get a feel for what is in a product by watching breaks. But like I said, the parallel patterns are fairly consistent across products. So it's more about a general education on ultra-modern cards, and that knowledge will carry over into most products, only needing to learn a few nuances of each set. And that can be done with a quick look at the checklist and odds sheet. As with any era of collecting, it just takes a little effort to learn. No one jumps into ultra-modern and knows it all right away (or ever), just like no one jumps into pre-war and knows it all instantly. In fact, the education to be well-versed in ultra-modern modern was far easier than the one to learn pre-war, in my opinion.

[BioCRN]

As someone who doesn't open ultra-modern and wades through tons of auction listings for singles, autos already take a back seat to many parallels.

Many autos will fall below value of a border variation, especially stamped/numbered ones...well except for the border variation versions with the auto...

I know it's a rarity, desire, demand, etc thing...but I still can't wrap my head around someone rather having an odd border color over a certified autographed card of that same player.

[sthoemke]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Agreed. It was amazing what happened with autos. In the early 90s, it was massively innovative, and we had rare chases that you had virtually no shot to pull one.



...

I pulled the Bench/Morgan auto

I still have it, although I have no clue where it is...

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by BioCRN

As someone who doesn't open ultra-modern and wades through tons of auction listings for singles, autos already take a back seat to many parallels.

Many autos will fall below value of a border variation, especially stamped/numbered ones...well except for the border variation versions with the auto...

I know it's a rarity, desire, demand, etc thing...but I still can't wrap my head around someone rather having an odd border color over a certified autographed card of that same player.

For me personally, autos just don't do it for me. I tend to get one auto of players I collect and leave it at that. I'm a card collector, not an auto collector. Give me cool cards with different variations to chase any day of the week over another auto. Maybe I just grew up in an era when autos on cards were sacrilege, so I never got into the pack-pulled auto craze. Or maybe I just don't get the allure of autos on cards. But I have always loved the cards themselves, and prefer a cool parallel to an auto. The 90s are my jam, and I have an extremely extensive Barry Larkin collection from that era. Yet I only own one Larkin auto-1997 Signature Series. And I only own that one because it was his first pack pulled auto ever.

In the end, collect what you like. I don't like autos.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

For me personally, autos just don't do it for me. I tend to get one auto of players I collect and leave it at that. I'm a card collector, not an auto collector. Give me cool cards with different variations to chase any day of the week over another auto. Maybe I just grew up in an era when autos on cards were sacrilege, so I never got into the pack-pulled auto craze. Or maybe I just don't get the allure of autos on cards. But I have always loved the cards themselves, and prefer a cool parallel to an auto.

I'm with you. I'm a card guy, not an autograph guy. I'll go after an Autograph card only if it's attractive in its own right and is a unique card. Therefore if there's a non-Autograph variant of the same card, the non-Autograph variant is the only one I want.

[Zach Wheat]

Originally Posted by ASF123

Good lord. Does it say on the back of the card which of these 683 variations it is, or do you just have to make your best guess as to whether it’s a Red Wave Refractor or a Red Raywave Refractor?

Don't they have a letter + numerical code to help you figure this out?

[BioCRN]

One of my favorite SSP/SSSP-types variations is the Topps Heritage flip stock cards.

It is solely because they are severely underpriced compared to other rare cards in the release and similar Topps releases.

2024 Topps Heritage "Flip Stock" comes at 1:961, hobby packs only (basically 1 card per 40 hobby boxes)

2023 and a slew before are 5 copies, total, hobby only.

They're not numbered, stamped, or otherwise identified by any obvious markings on the card, so there's a good amount sitting in people's "commons" piles or straight up trashed. Many people won't notice initially unless they handle them carefully under good light.

They fetch very depressed prices considering their rarity.