Trout hurt again, naturally

[Peter_Spaeth]

He almost lasted a month this time.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/m...entire-season/

[bnorth]

That sucks. I am sure the team he plays for will miss his 220 batting average.

[Seven]

It's a shame. He was on pace to be an inner circle Hall of Famer with how his career was stacking up in his 20's. Truly mirroring the likes of Mickey Mantle. All the talent in the world, but his body is failing him as he hit his 30's.

3 MVP's, a slew of other awards. I don't think this is the "end" for him, but at this point he needs to consider maybe giving up playing the field.

[nat]

Giving up playing the field is a really good idea.

The average is low, but he's leading the league in home runs. I'd prefer a high average and home runs, but still, home runs cover a lot of sins.

It's amazing that Trout is going to go down as a disappointment. If reflects just how much promise he had that a guy who was already well-qualified for the hall of fame before he turned 30 is still a "what might have been" story.

Some random facts for Trout-appreciation-purposes:

His career OPS+ (on base percentage plus slugging percentage, adjusted for the park he plays in and normalized so 100 is average) is 173. It's the best among active players. Hank Aaron's was 155 (and 156 through the same age as Trout; Aaron was amazingly consistent). Mike Schmidt's career OPS+ was 148.

His WAR is about 86. That's 50th all-time. Eyeballing the list, the only center fielders ahead of him are Mays, Cobb, Speaker, and Mantle. Before injuries struck he was averaging 9 WAR per season. Age would take some of that naturally, but sans injury (and COVID) he was only about four seasons from overtaking Mantle.

Even with all of his injuries he was still on pace for a 6.5 WAR season this year (until he knee gave out). He is very battered, but he's still all-star quality when he's healthy.

[jingram058]

It's how it is today with all your superstars "du jour". Tell me again how much bigger, stronger, faster they are. Whoopee effing do. They all break down.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jingram058

It's how it is today with all your superstars "du jour". Tell me again how much bigger, stronger, faster they are. Whoopee effing do. They all break down.

It certainly seems that way. Is there too much emphasis on strength and not enough on flexibility? Is it just that in the past players tended to play through injuries whereas now a hangnail sends them to the DL? Something else?

[bk400]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It certainly seems that way. Is there too much emphasis on strength and not enough on flexibility? Is it just that in the past players tended to play through injuries whereas now a hangnail sends them to the DL? Something else?

It makes me appreciate even more what Hank Aaron achieved. Even though he's carved into the Mount Rushmore of baseball, I think he's probably underrated. Along the same lines, I suspect that the achievements of the lithe Ichiro (with his custom-made flexibility machines) will look even more impressive in hindsight. I was reading somewhere that the guy throws in the upper 80s right now, as a 50 year old.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bk400

It makes me appreciate even more what Hank Aaron achieved. Even though he's carved into the Mount Rushmore of baseball, I think he's probably underrated. Along the same lines, I suspect that the achievements of the lithe Ichiro (with his custom-made flexibility machines) will look even more impressive in hindsight. I was reading somewhere that the guy throws in the upper 80s right now, as a 50 year old.

And recall that Ichiro already had played in Japan for NINE years when he started in Seattle. That's 28 total seasons, one more than Nolan. OK the last one doesn't really count but still.

[bk400]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

And recall that Ichiro already had played in Japan for NINE years when he started in Seattle. That's 28 total seasons, one more than Nolan. OK the last one doesn't really count but still.

I know it may be blasphemy on this forum, but between Ichiro and Pete Rose, I'd take Ichiro all day long. To me, he's the GOAT of pure hitting.

[G1911]

They are bigger, faster, stronger, better physical specimens. And yet their playing time is poor. Pitchers especially, who are now babied extensively with pitch counts and very low inning totals, are still mostly unable to piece together full careers anymore. The current approach does not seem to work in the long run, but it does work for the short term analytics that everyone is using, playing too, and getting paid on.

A player is incentivized to perform extremely well early on, at the absolute best all-out they can, until their initial contract is up and they get the lifetime mega contract and then it doesn't matter what they do. Teams are revolving around the analytics that are based on current short samples, how much WAR are they producing right now? This year? Last year? They are, for the most part, not looking at the future, even as they hand out hundreds of millions for the extended contracts, they are paying for past performance for young guys and paying them for that until they are old.

In the past, players on single-year-at-a-time contracts and a reserve clause maximized income by playing well for a long time. A team generally paid for the next season, based on past performance but a year at a time. To get that contract again, a player still needed to perform that next year. There is no reason not to go all out everything while young and endure the injuries and problems that the current approach of 100% all out every single pitch and play seems to be creating.

[jingram058]

Originally Posted by G1911

They are bigger, faster, stronger, better physical specimens. And yet their playing time is poor. Pitchers especially, who are now babied extensively with pitch counts and very low inning totals, are still mostly unable to piece together full careers anymore. The current approach does not seem to work in the long run, but it does work for the short term analytics that everyone is using, playing too, and getting paid on.

A player is incentivized to perform extremely well early on, at the absolute best all-out they can, until their initial contract is up and they get the lifetime mega contract and then it doesn't matter what they do. Teams are revolving around the analytics that are based on current short samples, how much WAR are they producing right now? This year? Last year? They are, for the most part, not looking at the future, even as they hand out hundreds of millions for the extended contracts, they are paying for past performance for young guys and paying them for that until they are old.

In the past, players on single-year-at-a-time contracts and a reserve clause maximized income by playing well for a long time. A team generally paid for the next season, based on past performance but a year at a time. To get that contract again, a player still needed to perform that next year. There is no reason not to go all out everything while young and endure the injuries and problems that the current approach of 100% all out every single pitch and play seems to be creating.

This is 100% correct, every word.

[packs]

Such a bummer. Batting average aside he was off to a great start. I do agree that DH must be in his future now. He's only appeared as a DH in 81 career games up until now.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

Such a bummer. Batting average aside he was off to a great start. I do agree that DH must be in his future now. He's only appeared as a DH in 81 career games up until now.

10 HR and only 14 RBI. That could be a record low for 10 HR.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

10 HR and only 14 RBI. That could be a record low for 10 HR.

Angels aren't very good and Trout has been leading off lately so probably not a lot of RBI opportunities.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jayshum

Angels aren't very good and Trout has been leading off lately so probably not a lot of RBI opportunities.

Hitting .200 doesn't help either. When did he last play a full season?

[packs]

Those 10 home runs were leading all of baseball. His OPS+ was 141. Mortal for Trout, maybe. But not a good start?

[Eric72]

Brilliant start, speed and power before injury issues, 3 MVP Awards, body breaking down in his 30s but still great when healthy.

(sarcasm incoming)

Remind me again why people compared this guy to Mickey Mantle?

[Snapolit1]

Had his career not been riddled with injuries, he could have been the next Mantle. Prodigious gifts. But can’t stay on the field

Sort of a mocking tone to some of the thread. I don’t get it. Sucks for him. Sucks for his team. Sucks for baseball. Seems like a good guy.

[Deertick]

Originally Posted by G1911

... the injuries and problems that the current approach of 100% all out every single pitch and play seems to be creating.

I lay a lot of the blame at the feet of the 'Travel Ball / Development $yndicate'. Young kids are training and playing all year long. They are being trained in "explosiveness". It's no wonder why things explode. Redlining any engine will cause it to breakdown sooner than later. I'd wager that most of the pitchers drafted have thrown more innings than a 5 yr minor leaguer who made a MLB roster in the 80's. And many have had a Tommy John or two.

No 12 yr old should be doing medicine ball twist throws in November. Or preparing for a New Year's tournament in FL.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5825337/

[packs]

I really don't think this is a common issue amongst players who don't pitch. Aside from specific people (like Trout, Anthony Rendon, Stanton, even Judge) there isn't the same injury bug as there is for the pitching side.

I do agree that pitching has been reduced from an art form to trying to throw a ball through a brick wall. It's pretty obvious to this casual observer that if you want to pitch for a long time, you'll need to learn how to actually pitch. And it's no mystery why somebody like Noah Syndergaard gets hurt every year.

[Eric72]

Originally Posted by packs

...pitching has been reduced from an art form to trying to throw a ball through a brick wall...

Very sad and very true.

[nwobhm]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It certainly seems that way. Is there too much emphasis on strength and not enough on flexibility? Is it just that in the past players tended to play through injuries whereas now a hangnail sends them to the DL? Something else?

Or were the recovery benefits from steroid use misunderstood…?

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9934...ing%20capacity.

[philliesfan]

MY son and I would love to see a healthy Trout for 1 whole year. Hopefully soon and in a Phillies uniform
Bob

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

And recall that Ichiro already had played in Japan for NINE years when he started in Seattle. That's 28 total seasons, one more than Nolan. OK the last one doesn't really count but still.

Well he was AWFUL for the last 9 seasons so not sure how much of a ringing endorsement his longevity is.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by packs

I really don't think this is a common issue amongst players who don't pitch. Aside from specific people (like Trout, Anthony Rendon, Stanton, even Judge) there isn't the same injury bug as there is for the pitching side.



I do agree that pitching has been reduced from an art form to trying to throw a ball through a brick wall. It's pretty obvious to this casual observer that if you want to pitch for a long time, you'll need to learn how to actually pitch. And it's no mystery why somebody like Noah Syndergaard gets hurt every year.

As a Chicago fan, I can add Roberts, Jimenez, Moncada, Bryant, Baez, Contreras and Bellinger to that list.

Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk

[D. Bergin]

Recency bias's do exist...both for the good, and the bad.

The more I pore over old-timers statistics, the more I scratch my head whenever, seemingly mobs of posters, start opining about the injury proneness of today's players and how players were made of something different, something more Iron Man-ish, in the good old days (whenever those were).

Nolan Ryan is not the norm
Hank Aaron is not the norm
Willie Mays is not the norm
Warren Spahn is not the norm
Ty Cobb is not the norm
even Derek Jeter...is not the norm

Their longevity is part of their greatness, but they are the exception, the outlier, not the norm.

History is littered with players who were briefly "Great", but succumbed to one injury, malady, ailment or another, to either diminish their career, or end it...sooner then hoped.

There's been lots of "All-Stars" throughout baseball history. Been a lot less HOF'ers and All-Time Greats...for good reason.

Sure, pitchers expend more energy then they used to from pitch to pitch to pitch...and they also benefit from modern medical technology, to make a comeback, much more likely then used to be possible when the inevitable injury does occur.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Recency bias's do exist...both for the good, and the bad.

The more I pore over old-timers statistics, the more I scratch my head whenever, seemingly mobs of posters, start opining about the injury proneness of today's players and how players were made of something different, something more Iron Man-ish, in the good old days (whenever those were).

Nolan Ryan is not the norm
Hank Aaron is not the norm
Willie Mays is not the norm
Warren Spahn is not the norm
Ty Cobb is not the norm
even Derek Jeter...is not the norm

Their longevity is part of their greatness, but they are the exception, the outlier, not the norm.

History is littered with players who were briefly "Great", but succumbed to one injury, malady, ailment or another, to either diminish their career, or end it...sooner then hoped.

There's been lots of "All-Stars" throughout baseball history. Been a lot less HOF'ers and All-Time Greats...for good reason.

Sure, pitchers expend more energy then they used to from pitch to pitch to pitch...and they also benefit from modern medical technology, to make a comeback, much more likely then used to be possible when the inevitable injury does occur.

I don't think anyone is expecting Nolan Ryan or Warren Spahn when we talk about pitcher fragility. The problem is we have tons of guys who are clearly talented enough and destroy their arms very very quickly. This has always happened, there has always been a Herb Score, but it seems to increase even as the complete game has died out. There seems to be a clear decrease in Lou Burdette and Livan Hernandez type pitchers that can hurl consistently over the years. Conserving pitch counts and innings limits, having pitchers throw significantly less every year has not extended careers and in fact seems to have correlated to a shortening of them. We still have the freaks of nature one offs like Verlander that just keeps going, but the problem is the not the .1%.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by G1911

I don't think anyone is expecting Nolan Ryan or Warren Spahn when we talk about pitcher fragility. The problem is we have tons of guys who are clearly talented enough and destroy their arms very very quickly. This has always happened, there has always been a Herb Score, but it seems to increase even as the complete game has died out. There seems to be a clear decrease in Lou Burdette and Livan Hernandez type pitchers that can hurl consistently over the years. Conserving pitch counts and innings limits, having pitchers throw significantly less every year has not extended careers and in fact seems to have correlated to a shortening of them. We still have the freaks of nature one offs like Verlander that just keeps going, but the problem is the not the .1%.

Pitching has become an all or nothing endeavor and is no longer the art form it once was. This is not an "Old man yells at cloud" sort of rant, the reason why arm injuries are more prevalent than ever is due to the over specialization of youth sports, and the fact that every pitcher is maxing out at extremely high speeds on the gun. Throwing is not a natural motion as it is, the amount of stress that is being put on elbow ligaments and shoulders is too great for the body to handle. Combined with the fact that these kids have been throwing hard and often for a long time by the time they hit the Bigs, it's an epedmic of sorts.

You have facilities like drive line emphasizing velocity and spin rate for 12 year olds, it's no wonder that by the time they're 25 their elbows are shot and they'll need either their 2nd or sometimes 3rd Tommy John Surgey.

The position players, probably experience something similar with Baseball being a year round sport now, but the stress is more prevalent IMO in pitchers. We also have the situation now where players are truly investments. Baseball is a Billion Dollar Business. Players are not going to play through minor injuries anymore because the organizations do not want to lose how ever many millions are invested into their young players. It's an unfortunate reality.

[packs]

I disagree with the Nolan Ryan notion too. All any team really wants is an Andy Pettitte or a Jamie Moyer, not a Nolan Ryan. A guy who can pitch every fifth day for more than five innings and can be penciled in pretty much year after year for 180-200 innings. But you have to know how to pitch to do that. That will never be a guy who’s all arm.