What is the current state of prices??

[frankrizzo29]

Pricing lately has been pretty all over the place. Some prices have come crashing down from 2022 peaks, some have only declined slightly, and others are randomly all over the place. It's made it hard to gauge where prices are going and how to value/price certain cards. I primarily focus on T206, so that's where my numbers are based. For example,

T206 Magee Portrait with an Old Mill back. A PSA 4 sold in June 2021 for $5,160. That same card sold in Feb 2022 for $10,224. A PSA 5 sold in April 2022 for $9,600. That exact same PSA 5 card sold last night in REA for $3,000 after the buyer's premium. I know card pricing is down from the peak prices we saw in 2022, but a ~70% decline is pretty steep.

In REA last night, an SGC 3 Cobb with Bat off sold for $9,900. A PSA 3 Cobb with Bat off sold for $6,900 in the exact same auction. Both had Piedmont backs, and both had great coloring and centering. The SGC card had stronger corners, but I'm not sure it's worth a ~40% premium over the PSA 3 that was in the same auction.

I also saw many pricing disparities at the Strongsville show this past weekend as well, with some cards being priced upwards of almost double what other dealers had the same card, same grade, same card back priced for.

I know I am rambling, but what are your thoughts, are prices stabilizing now, are they heating up again, or are they still falling?

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by frankrizzo29

are prices stabilizing now, are they heating up again, or are they still falling?

Yes.

There are so many factors at work and so many facets of collecting that it is futile to try and generalize. Signed vintage, for example, is doing really well; mainstream lower grade not so much. PSA 10 1986 Jordan, really, really not so much.

[ullmandds]

based on REA results last night I'd say 1921 ruth exhibits are def down!

[oldjudge]

The 1921 Ruth exhibit is his most common exhibit by far. Secondly, REA having three very similar copies in the same auction certainly doesn’t help the realizations.
I think Old Judges did fairly solidly in REA. The Behel, truly a scarce card, went cheap, but otherwise there were some impressive/head scratching realizations.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

The 1921 Ruth exhibit is his most common exhibit by far. Secondly, REA having three very similar copies in the same auction certainly doesn’t help the realizations.
I think Old Judges did fairly solidly in REA. The Behel, truly a scarce card, went cheap, but otherwise there were some impressive/head scratching realizations.

i would not have been happy had i consigned a 21 exhibit ruth to rea!

[oldjudge]

At one time auction houses would not run more than one copy of a card. Those days are long gone. Also, it’s possible that Ruth exhibits are weakening. The 1922 in LOTG’s last auction didn’t do particularly well either.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

i would not have been happy had i consigned a 21 exhibit ruth to rea!

REA used to have an unwritten policy not to replicate like that in the not so distant past. I hope they are at least disclosing to consignors, at some point, that there will be similar cards in the auction. I understand from their perspective to take everything they can because if they don't they essentially hand the consignment over to a competitor. I would have to think having 3 of any card favors the buyers and not the sellers.

[puckpaul]

Better than 8 red Cobbs I guess…?

[oldjudge]

I think REA was the first to break that policy when they auctioned off the five (?) Cobbs with Cobb backs in the same sale. REA is still a great auction but in my mind it is not like it used to be. Years ago I was excited to get the catalog because of all the rarities it would contain, real rarities not condition scarcities. Now my reaction is to do some stretching so I don’t pull a muscle trying to lift the catalog off my doorstep. LOL, age could have something to do with that too.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

At one time auction houses would not run more than one copy of a card. Those days are long gone. Also, it’s possible that Ruth exhibits are weakening. The 1922 in LOTG’s last auction didn’t do particularly well either.

I remember seeing a nice one for the first time at the National a few years ago. Is really a very stunning card in hand.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

I think REA was the first to break that policy when they auctioned off the five (?) Cobbs with Cobb backs in the same sale. REA is still a great auction but in my mind it is not like it used to be. Years ago I was excited to get the catalog because of all the rarities it would contain, real rarities not condition scarcities. Now my reaction is to do some stretching so I don’t pull a muscle trying to lift the catalog off my doorstep. LOL, age could have something to do with that too.

REA has a lot more competition than they used to have which might explain the lack or true rarities and as I posted above, I can see it both ways on the heavy replication of material.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by oldjudge

age could have something to do with that too.

"You're only as old as the woman you feel"--Groucho

[MikeGarcia]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

"You're only as old as the woman you feel"--Groucho

.." Are you a widow ? Did he leave you any money ? Answer the second question first."


,,,

[oldjudge]

I get your points

[MACollector]

Don’t tell Whitey Ford collectors the sky is falling….I thought his 1951 Bowman PSA 8.5 rookie would do well but it exceeded my expectations despite this softer market. It sold for $42k vs the last 8 selling for $18k not long ago. Quite a premium for the half grade but considering there are only pop 3 of them and 3 PSA 9’s higher you can see why it went for a 2.3x multiple due to relative scarcity vs 49 straight PSA 8s. The bigger the relative pop scarcity, the bigger the premium seems to be a good rule of thumb.

[anchorednw]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

REA used to have an unwritten policy not to replicate like that in the not so distant past. I hope they are at least disclosing to consignors, at some point, that there will be similar cards in the auction. I understand from their perspective to take everything they can because if they don't they essentially hand the consignment over to a competitor. I would have to think having 3 of any card favors the buyers and not the sellers.

The short answer to this is no, they do not disclose when other copies of same card being auctioned. One major reason I would be very leery of ever consigning anything to REA, unless a true rare or scarce piece. They simply will not disclose and will load an auction with same cards all the time now.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by anchorednw

The short answer to this is no, they do not disclose when other copies of same card being auctioned. One major reason I would be very leery of ever consigning anything to REA, unless a true rare or scarce piece. They simply will not disclose and will load an auction with same cards all the time now.

Wow that is disappointing. Sounds like you have had a first hand experience with that and duly noted. Appreciate your sharing. So might many other people who read this.

[MVSNYC]

T206 rare backs are (still) very strong. Was watching/bidding on dozens of rare backs and got blown out on almost everything...An extreme example, but the Cobb Bat Off Cycle 460 went for $76,000! That's incredible. Many of of the common Uzits went in the 4-5k range, and depending on grades/pops, even higher.

[anchorednw]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Wow that is disappointing. Sounds like you have had a first hand experience with that and duly noted. Appreciate your sharing. So might many other people who read this.

Unfortunately, I do and have heard from countless others as well. It's a great auction for buyers of said types of cards (more popular, not as scarce, etc), but for sellers, I would stay clear because of this practice.

It's one thing to have multiple cards of same in auction, it's another thing not to notify or warn. The fact they don't says a lot. Can you imagine if they did and how many people would ask to pull out, especially based on how they are loading auctions last year.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by anchorednw

Unfortunately, I do and have heard from countless others as well. It's a great auction for buyers of said types of cards (more popular, not as scarce, etc), but for sellers, I would stay clear because of this practice.

It's one thing to have multiple cards of same in auction, it's another thing not to notify or warn. The fact they don't says a lot. Can you imagine if they did and how many people would ask to pull out, especially based on how they are loading auctions last year.

Yeah it cannot be THAT hard to let your consignors know. To just accept the consignment, make no mention and let the consignors see it once the auction goes live seems inappropriate. And that is the part that would not sit right with me. At least give your consignor a choice. So do their consignment agreements address this at all?

[Peter_Spaeth]

This has been happening for years now. I think one auction had like 10 plus Red Cobbs. Whether or not cannibalization actually happens, I dunno, but I think you basically take that risk especially with relatively common cards.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

This has been happening for years now. I think one auction had like 10 plus Red Cobbs. Whether or not cannibalization actually happens, I dunno, but I think you basically take that risk especially with relatively common cards.

Are the 1921 Exhibit Ruths that common? I don't know the issue. I suppose if there were 3 and their grades were not similar, it might not be as bad but as a consignor I would want to know. I suppose it becomes my burden to ask.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Lorewalker

Are the 1921 Exhibit Ruths that common?

At least as common as "common" 1921 Exhibits, so I'd say yes. The 3 in the auction represent less than 1% of all the surviving copies.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

At least as common as "common" 1921 Exhibits, so I'd say yes. The 3 in the auction represent less than 1% of all the surviving copies.

There are 235, 1921 exhibits Ruth’s on the combined PSA/SGC pop report. I bet a sizable minority (20%) are crossovers, and certainly others exist that are not on the pop reports. So if we take the combined pop report as a fairly decent estimate of surviving examples (offsetting crossovers with ungraded), 3 in one auction is 1.28% of the entire population.

By contrast, the PSA pop report shows 2,609 graded red Cobbs (ignoring backs); SGC’s pop report is a major pain and I cannot tell how many red Cobbs have been graded without searching every year 1909-11 and all applicable backs. So looking at the PSA pop alone, t206 red Cobbs are 11.1x more common the 1921 exhibit Ruth’s. Let’s assume that SGC has graded 1500 red Cobbs, the difference becomes 17.5x.

Based on this comparison, three 1921 Ruth exhibits is equal to 52.5, t206 red Cobbs. 52.5 red Cobbs in one auction seems excessive. Yet 3 Ruth Exhibits (especially if different grades/condition and grading companies) seems much more ok.

And this is the garbage that gets posted at midnight when one cannot sleep bc they add thinking of cards!

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

There are 235, 1921 exhibits Ruth’s on the combined PSA/SGC pop report. I bet a sizable minority (20%) are crossovers, and certainly others exist that are not on the pop reports. So if we take the combined pop report as a fairly decent estimate of surviving examples (offsetting crossovers with ungraded), 3 in one auction is 1.28% of the entire population.

By contrast, the PSA pop report shows 2,609 graded red Cobbs (ignoring backs); SGC’s pop report is a major pain and I cannot tell how many red Cobbs have been graded without searching every year 1909-11 and all applicable backs. So looking at the PSA pop alone, t206 red Cobbs are 11.1x more common the 1921 exhibit Ruth’s. Let’s assume that SGC has graded 1500 red Cobbs, the difference becomes 17.5x.

Based on this comparison, three 1921 Ruth exhibits is equal to 52.5, t206 red Cobbs. 52.5 red Cobbs in one auction seems excessive. Yet 3 Ruth Exhibits (especially if different grades/condition and grading companies) seems much more ok.

And this is the garbage that gets posted at midnight when one cannot sleep bc they add thinking of cards!

The 21 Exhibits Ruth is the most estheticaly pleasing early Ruth postcard imo, all three cards were well bought and advantageous to the buyers that there were three similar examples available at the same time, I can only hope Ben was the winner of one of them so he can mercifully stop bumping his BST thread.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

The 21 Exhibits Ruth is the most estheticaly pleasing early Ruth postcard imo, all three cards were well bought and advantageous to the buyers that there were three similar examples available at the same time, I can only hope Ben was the winner of one of them so he can mercifully stop bumping his BST thread.

Maybe it was Ben selling his dupes?

[sportscardpete]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

The 21 Exhibits Ruth is the most estheticaly pleasing early Ruth postcard imo, all three cards were well bought and advantageous to the buyers that there were three similar examples available at the same time, I can only hope Ben was the winner of one of them so he can mercifully stop bumping his BST thread.

Oh gosh this made me LOL.

I did win one of the 21 exhibits in REA. I thought prices had come down a lot before the auction, so wasn't entirely surprised with where they ended up, and don't necessarily think having 3 at the same time impacted the price. I think Ruth in generally has been weak this year.

I thought Wagner was weak generally speaking (especially the M116), but again I think that had started before this auction.

The JKA Cobb - what a card and what a price. The 51 signed Mantle, what a price. Definitely some strength in the hobby still showing, just not in the usual Ruth/Wagner channel.

[calvindog]

Thanks Pete. Way to make me feel worse. 🤣

[Yoda]

IMO the '21 Ruth Exhibit is popular is because it shows the Bambino in a rare fielding pose, which draws attention to it.
I hold one in a BVG 3.5 with no intention of consigning it in the near future, if ever.

[Kutcher55]

This is more anecdotal but my impression is that a lot of people who got back into the game 3-5 years ago (such as myself) started with post war Vintage. Since that stuff is mostly plentiful, the itch was scratched and now these same collectors are less interested in midgrade vintage from the 50s and 60s partly because they own most of it that they wanted but also because the thrill is somewhat gone. I have made the shift to pre war, but not top tier stuff (cobb, ruth, shoeless joe, matty, etc.), but the tiers below that. I suspect that stuff is doing pretty well overall, as it's a way to get into the post war game without spending your 401k. I have been building Red Sox sets, which are all affordable other than T.Speaker, Joe Wood and certain Duffy Lewis's and even those are within reach.

I have gotten the T206 bug, but I have zero interest in Piedmont or Sweet Caporal (even the rare variations of those backs). The tiers below those have much more appeal for me. Someone mentioned off backs are doing well and I'm not surprised to hear that.

[Kutcher55]

Also I think running comps of high ticket, very low pop pre war stuff is problematic. The market will behave most inefficiently for these cards because there are so few buyers and all it takes is two people to want the same 1912 Old Hickory Cola Honus Wagner or whatever and the price will go haywire. That's why you will get mixed signals when you try to comp out cards like this.

While we can all say with a great deal of certainty that cards like the Jordan RC are down because the market is much more efficient even for the high grade copies.

[marcmandel]

I have seen AH sales with multiple examples of same or similar cards for years and generally I think the answer to the question of whether this is a good practice depends on where your card stands relative to the other listings. Much like a home sale of real estate, if you're not the high-priced "comp" then you stand to improve your position if the high-priced examples scores and does well in the sale. You know, a high tide raises all boats.

If you're the high priced guy on the other hand, the lower priced examples could impose a little financial gravitational pull on your gains and lower your upside in the deal.

In general, statistically, all markets tend to seek out a natural middlepoint. Some down from the top, others up from the bottom.

[packs]

I don't think I would consign something as common as a T206 Red Portrait in collector grade to an AH. I think a card like that will always do better on eBay, where the supply has really dried up. I also don't think it's the kind of card you need help selling, but I see the appeal of letting an auction house broker the sale and deal with shipping, etc.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by marcmandel

I have seen AH sales with multiple examples of same or similar cards for years and generally I think the answer to the question of whether this is a good practice depends on where your card stands relative to the other listings. Much like a home sale of real estate, if you're not the high-priced "comp" then you stand to improve your position if the high-priced examples scores and does well in the sale. You know, a high tide raises all boats.

If you're the high priced guy on the other hand, the lower priced examples could impose a little financial gravitational pull on your gains and lower your upside in the deal.

In general, statistically, all markets tend to seek out a natural middlepoint. Some down from the top, others up from the bottom.

Agreed. If there are several of the same card in the same auction, the one with the most eye appeal may get a boost from the "competition", and the one with least eye appeal will get hurt the most by competition.

I would be okay with listing a card among like cards in the same auction if I saw the other cards first. One reason I like to consign at the last minute is that you can inquire about if there any other similar cards in the auction and get a response that is likely to hold true until the auction start date.

[Casey2296]

Originally Posted by sportscardpete

I thought Wagner was weak generally speaking (especially the M116), but again I think that had started before this auction

There was a modern guy buying a lot of Wagner portraits during the recent run up, I think he ended up with about 15 of them. Doesn't take much to move that needle up other than money, tends to create a false market with some of these pre-war cards.

[RhodeyRhode]

Originally Posted by anchorednw

The short answer to this is no, they do not disclose when other copies of same card being auctioned. One major reason I would be very leery of ever consigning anything to REA, unless a true rare or scarce piece. They simply will not disclose and will load an auction with same cards all the time now.

This has happened to me twice for cards in the 5k-20k range. For me, I would not consign with them again. I know others like tea a lot but it was horrible communication and then held the cards skipping multiple auctions only to put them in a group with 3-4 others of the same.

[Jewish-collector]

What would the AH answer if you asked them directly about other cards exactly like yours being consigned and in the particular auction ?.

How would they actually answer your question ?

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Jewish-collector

What would the AH answer if you asked them directly about other cards exactly like yours being consigned and in the particular auction ?.

How would they actually answer your question ?

Depends on the auction house. Al from Love of the Game will tell you if there are any of the same cards and how your cards will fit into his auctions.

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Depends on the auction house. Al from Love of the Game will tell you if there are any of the same cards and how your cards will fit into his auctions.

+1

[Rhotchkiss]

As many of you know, I made a large consignment to Memory Lane; cards to be sold in the current and their next two auctions.

After my consignment, they received consignments of two cards that were already in my consignment- an e121 Ruth in a similar but higher grade than mine and a 1921 Exhibit Ruth in a similar but lower grade than mine.

Memory Lane called me and we discussed what to do. Ultimately, we all agreed to hold my cards for the next auction and not to double up.

This is a comment on nobody other than memory lane and my experience with them on this matter

[LEHR]

So, with reading the above comments, here's my thoughts that no one asked for.

Lets be honest with ourselves. Your T206 Piedmont Cobbs, 34 Gehrigs, 33 Ruths, any year Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Robinson, etc.; these cards are simply not rare. Beautiful, wildly popular, expensive in some cases...absolutely; but not rare.
So if there are say 400 people across the US in any given year who want to auction their red piedmont Cobb, or 1,000 people who want to auction their Mantle, and only say 100 major auctions, what are said consignors supposed to do with these cards if the AH's will only ever accept one copy of each per auction? Should the sellers hold their card hoping sometime in the next five years that an AH will accept their 54 Robinson as the sole example in their auction? Or should they just try to sell the card themselves, which they clearly didn't want to do to begin with, because they can never get it accepted by an AH due to the flood of material on the market.
I can definitely see where it would be frustrating to consign your card to an auction, only to see six other examples in the same auction, but what are the realistic alternatives? Like I tell my teams at work; don't bring complaints to the table if your not also going to bring ideas for a solution.

Not trying to stir the pot here, just posting a different point of view.

[rand1com]

If I submit a green portrait common back Cobb in a PSA 4 and the auction house already has one or more in that exact grade, they should ask me what to do with mine. That puts the outcome in the hands of the consignor.

It is true that in a major auction there will likely be more than one, but I would prefer to have mine as the only example in a smaller though still well known auction.

Collectors will find it and instead of competing bids among several in a major auction, it will be the only game in town on that day.

From other posts, sounds like Al may be one of the few who has it right by asking the simple question.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by rand1com

If I submit a green portrait common back Cobb in a PSA 4 and the auction house already has one or more in that exact grade, they should ask me what to do with mine. That puts the outcome in the hands of the consignor.

It is true that in a major auction there will likely be more than one, but I would prefer to have mine as the only example in a smaller though still well known auction.

Collectors will find it and instead of competing bids among several in a major auction, it will be the only game in town on that day.

From other posts, sounds like Al may be one of the few who has it right by asking the simple question.

+1

If you don't want your less scarce cards to be drowned out by better looking versions of the same cards, then don't consign to REA or Heritage (although Heritage has so many auctions, you might get lucky in one of their Sunday auctions).

Just ask around with some of the smaller/medium action houses. They will be more than happy to proudly display your cards in their auctions.

[CardPadre]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

As many of you know, I made a large consignment to Memory Lane; cards to be sold in the current and their next two auctions.

After my consignment, they received consignments of two cards that were already in my consignment- an e121 Ruth in a similar but higher grade than mine and a 1921 Exhibit Ruth in a similar but lower grade than mine.

Memory Lane called me and we discussed what to do. Ultimately, we all agreed to hold my cards for the next auction and not to double up.

This is a comment on nobody other than memory lane and my experience with them on this matter

Curious as to what you might do if similar cards end up consigned to their next auction as well? Would you hold off again?

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by CardPadre

Curious as to what you might do if similar cards end up consigned to their next auction as well? Would you hold off again?

Not sure. I guess I will cross that bridge if it arises. What’s important is that I will have a choice.

One thing to remember about large AHs like REA and Heritage is that they get eyes that some other AHs may not; the collecting world is much larger than Net54.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Casey2296

There was a modern guy buying a lot of Wagner portraits during the recent run up, I think he ended up with about 15 of them. Doesn't take much to move that needle up other than money, tends to create a false market with some of these pre-war cards.

That's pretty amazing, and makes me wonder how many attempts at market manipulation have gone on over the years, i.e., buying up all of certain cards for a period to drive the price up, then parceling them out in various auctions over a succeeding period to realize a profit. Of course, this would take resources, planning, discipline, and some guesses as to the prices of what cards might benefit from this type of market bending, but isn't that how a lot of traders in different commodities do it? And in this day of computer algorithms and AI, who knows what advanced skills in those areas might help in this kind of pursuit? At the very least, it's a good guess there are many young folk thinking about and perhaps working on it.

[anchorednw]

Originally Posted by Jewish-collector

What would the AH answer if you asked them directly about other cards exactly like yours being consigned and in the particular auction ?.

How would they actually answer your question?

What would they say? Yes, there are 3 other cards identical to yours, the grade and maybe photos to help assess. Then let me decide what to do.

As mentioned above with Memory Lane and Al at LOTG, this is how it should be done. REA does not do this. Unless I have a 1 every year or two type card that comes to market) or rarer), I would never consign to REA.

I will say this, I am planning to give a review of my first major consignment (Al -LOTG) here soon on the board for what it's worth. As I have bought from nearly every auction house in the last 4 years, I am getting a pretty good picture of things moving forward as I plan to buy and especially consign more.

[Exhibitman]

i think it is just fine to 'ladder' different condition copies of a card. It gives people who get knocked out of higher conditions the ability to drop down. It really works best if you allow anyone to bid into a lot in OT the way Sterling does. But I sure don't want to see ten PSA 2 of the same card.

When it comes to mainstream cards, I don't think it is realistic to assume that my example will be the only one in the auction. You'd never get to all of them.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Jewish-collector

What would the AH answer if you asked them directly about other cards exactly like yours being consigned and in the particular auction ?.

How would they actually answer your question ?

I would hope the answer would be nothing but the transparent truth. Truth appears to be something the human race is really struggling with.