Ohtani CARDS are Mostly UNDERVALUED

[bk400]

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2021/3...review-two-way

Article above written in March 2021, before the start of Ohtani's 4-year reign of terror, but after his struggles in 2020. Sounds like he and the Angels put a lot of thought into his regimen. Interestingly, they took away restrictions on his workload, allowing him to actually do more two-way stuff rather than less.

He also started squatting heavy again and came in at 225 pounds in spring training in 2021. I'd imagine that helped a lot, especially after his 2019 knee surgery.

As an aside, Ohtani is still listed right now at 210 lbs, but he looks like he's a lot bigger than that when you see him standing next to Bryce Harper -- who's also listed at 210:

https://x.com/MLB/status/1811061670493511797/photo/1

[packs]

I feel like getting big is the worst possible thing a pitcher could do. If he's going to DH, sure, get huge. But can you think of a single monster bodied pitcher who had any kind of sustained success?

I remember the year Syndergaard showed up at Mets spring training looking like Bane. Everyone lauded his workout routine and all the press was expecting a huge season out of him. Instead he got hurt, missed the next three seasons, came back a shell of himself and was out of the game at 30 years old, having won 59 total games.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by packs

I feel like getting big is the worst possible thing a pitcher could do. If he's going to DH, sure, get huge. But can you think of a single monster bodied pitcher who had any kind of sustained success?

I remember the year Syndergaard showed up at Mets spring training looking like Bane. Everyone lauded his workout routine and all the press was expecting a huge season out of him. Instead he got hurt, missed the next three seasons, came back a shell of himself and was out of the game at 30 years old, having won 59 total games.

I would say if he focused on lower body it's a good thing even as a pitcher. I would agree if he's bulking up upper body though.

[packs]

I agree. A strong pair of legs is always good for a pitcher. But you aren't going to throw harder because you lift weights and if anything, it's only going to limit your movement, likely resulting in injury.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

I agree. A strong pair of legs is always good for a pitcher. But you aren't going to throw harder because you lift weights and if anything, it's only going to limit your movement, likely resulting in injury.

So why so many pitchers using PEDs?

[packs]

It was my understanding that pitchers benefit the most from the advanced healing aspects of PED use.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by packs

It was my understanding that pitchers benefit the most from the advanced healing aspects of PED use.

Which is actually the reason McGwire took them. Look at the years before, he couldn't stay on the field. Hell he didn't need more power, he hit 49 home runs as a beanpole rookie. But he was ALWAYS hurt until he started andro and whatever else.

[Tomi]

Originally Posted by packs

It was my understanding that pitchers benefit the most from the advanced healing aspects of PED use.

I can tell you from experience when I was in my 20's I did a couple of cycles of Decca and testosterone and you don't even feel the muscle the next day after a hard workout. The benefits are absolutely insane. Gaining 15lbs in a few weeks was common. You feel like a whole other level human when you are on it but are quickly humbled when you stop. This was in the 90's, I can only imagine how much better the PEDs are today.

[jboosted92]

Originally Posted by Tomi

I can tell you from experience when I was in my 20's I did a couple of cycles of Decca and testosterone and you don't even feel the muscle the next day after a hard workout. The benefits are absolutely insane. Gaining 15lbs in a few weeks was common. You feel like a whole other level human when you are on it but are quickly humbled when you stop. This was in the 90's, I can only imagine how much better the PEDs are today.

yah this is correct, its not that it "makes muscles" its that you can put in 30 hours a week of heavy lifting and not feel it.. lol

[calvindog]

I haven’t seen any mention in the media after last night’s Dodgers game about Ohtani reaching 400 total bases. Just the 30th time it’s ever been done and the first time since 2001.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by calvindog

I haven’t seen any mention in the media after last night’s Dodgers game about Ohtani reaching 400 total bases. Just the 30th time it’s ever been done and the first time since 2001.

I just came from Twitter and saw this

So impressive

[calvindog]

Taking away the steroid guys and the altitude guys and you don’t have much. Seven games ago he was at 360.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by calvindog

Taking away the steroid guys and the altitude guys and you don’t have much. Seven games ago he was at 360.

And Aaron Judge has an OPS+ of 226 and has 392 total bases with 3 games against the Pirates left.

OPS+ Single Season Leaders
Babe Ruth 1920 255
Babe Ruth 1921 239
Babe Ruth 1923 239
Ted Williams 1941 235
Ted Williams 1957 233
Aaron Judge 2024 226
Babe Ruth 1926 226

Throw in the rookie season of Paul Skenes and this is one of the best years for baseball in a long time.

[calvindog]

Originally Posted by rats60

And Aaron Judge has an OPS+ of 226 and has 392 total bases with 3 games against the Pirates left.

OPS+ Single Season Leaders
Babe Ruth 1920 255
Babe Ruth 1921 239
Babe Ruth 1923 239
Ted Williams 1941 235
Ted Williams 1957 233
Aaron Judge 2024 226
Babe Ruth 1926 226

Throw in the rookie season of Paul Skenes and this is one of the best years for baseball in a long time.

Agreed. The Judge OPS+ numbers and total bases are off the charts historically.

[D. Bergin]

Hope they let Judge get to 400 total bases before they decide to give him a rest. Yankees still competing for a 1 seed with Indians (not sure if that matters), so maybe it won't come into play.

[D. Bergin]

Throw in Judge's 133+ walks and 9 HBP, and I'd say that's a pretty good season. He's been on base a bit, despite all those strikeouts.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Hope they let Judge get to 400 total bases before they decide to give him a rest. Yankees still competing for a 1 seed with Indians (not sure if that matters), so maybe it won't come into play.

He is not in tonight's lineup.

[puckpaul]

Originally Posted by packs

I feel like getting big is the worst possible thing a pitcher could do. If he's going to DH, sure, get huge. But can you think of a single monster bodied pitcher who had any kind of sustained success?

I remember the year Syndergaard showed up at Mets spring training looking like Bane. Everyone lauded his workout routine and all the press was expecting a huge season out of him. Instead he got hurt, missed the next three seasons, came back a shell of himself and was out of the game at 30 years old, having won 59 total games.

Wouldnt you say Roger Clemens bulked up? His head enlarged 3x it seemed.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Ohtani putting on a late push for a triple crown too. I had written off the batting title a few weeks ago, only a couple points down now.

[bk400]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Ohtani putting on a late push for a triple crown too. I had written off the batting title a few weeks ago, only a couple points down now.

Yes, I just noticed that as well. Looks like it is mathematically possible. After tonight's game, his WAR will be over 9, which I believe is unprecedented for a DH.

[Peter_Spaeth]

35/93 for September lol.

[bk400]

So here's a question -- let's say Ohtani wins his 3rd MVP unanimously. He then gets hurt next year, can't pitch anymore, and then finishes his career with a few .275, 20 HR, 80 RBI seasons -- so something like a career 60 WAR -- is he still a first-ballot lock for the HOF?

Bonds, A-Rod, Trout and Pujols are the only four players with 3-MVPs who are not in the Hall. We know about Bonds and A-Rod.

Pujols is an obvious lock for the first ballot. I think Trout is also a lock based on his career WAR. I'd argue that Ohtani is also a lock based on his peak years plus the uniqueness of his tenure. But I bet there are those who might disagree.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by bk400

So here's a question -- let's say Ohtani wins his 3rd MVP unanimously. He then gets hurt next year, can't pitch anymore, and then finishes his career with a few .275, 20 HR, 80 RBI seasons -- so something like a career 60 WAR -- is he still a first-ballot lock for the HOF?

Bonds, A-Rod, Trout and Pujols are the only four players with 3-MVPs who are not in the Hall. We know about Bonds and A-Rod.

Pujols is an obvious lock for the first ballot. I think Trout is also a lock based on his career WAR. I'd argue that Ohtani is also a lock based on his peak years plus the uniqueness of his tenure. But I bet there are those who might disagree.

I’ll go a step further. I think he gets in if he suffers career ending injury today, and never plays again. They’ll pass an Ohtani clause to forego the 10 year rule and vote him in pretty definitively.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

I’ll go a step further. I think he gets in if he suffers career ending injury today, and never plays again. They’ll pass an Ohtani clause to forego the 10 year rule and vote him in pretty definitively.

He's just finishing his 7th year. I think he would get a display but no one is going to lower the requirement by 3 years. Hopefully never comes up.

Did Arraez sit out yesterday after a 3 hit game?

[jboosted92]

Originally Posted by jboosted92

I’m sorry - but I will die on this hill

The greatest most complete ball player cards are mostly undervalued

This feels like “Brady cards” after 2004

Guy can’t pitch this year ? Ho Hum - gets a 40/40 here in a couple weeks

OP here

forgot to come back after his 50/50

i can now say -- his base 2018 have respect

[hammertime]

And he's absolutely obliterating his HR pace from last year. And he should be back on the mound after the ASG. And his stuff looks filthier than ever.

[Peter_Spaeth]

The Dodgers do not need him to pitch and if it were my team I would not risk a career or season ending injury by putting him back on the mound. He is killing it as a batter, leave well enough alone.

[sbfinley]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The Dodgers do not need him to pitch and if it were my team I would not risk a career or season ending injury by putting him back on the mound. He is killing it as a batter, leave well enough alone.

While I agree with this take on the surface, he does specifically choose to bat lefty while pitching righty to minimize the impact arm fatigue or injuries would have on his hitting. Some credence can be given to the effectiveness of this considering he put up a historic all-time offensive season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by sbfinley

While I agree with this take on the surface, he does specifically choose to bat lefty while pitching righty to minimize the impact arm fatigue or injuries would have on his hitting. Some credence can be given to the effectiveness of this considering he put up a historic all-time offensive season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

If he blows out his pitching arm, he isn't batting, he's on the DL and back in surgery. Why risk it when he's arguably the best hitter in the league and you are the best team in baseball with your existing staff?

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

The Dodgers do not need him to pitch and if it were my team I would not risk a career or season ending injury by putting him back on the mound. He is killing it as a batter, leave well enough alone.

The Dodger's pitching is pretty awful. They can get away with it in the regular season but they're going to need another strong starter come the post season.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

The Dodger's pitching is pretty awful. They can get away with it in the regular season but they're going to need another strong starter come the post season.

So they can buy one. Why risk the straw that stirs the drink, Ohtani? Besides, playoff baseball is pitching by committee these days.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

So they can buy one. Why risk the straw that stirs the drink, Ohtani? Besides, playoff baseball is pitching by committee these days.

You're also ignoring the fact that he signed with the understanding that he would pitch. It's always been part of the deal with him.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

So they can buy one. Why risk the straw that stirs the drink, Ohtani? Besides, playoff baseball is pitching by committee these days.

They can't buy a starter during the season, but they can trade for one. There's a big difference. Instead of just outbidding the other teams with the highest salary offer, they have to have prospects they are willing to give up that another team wants which they may not be able to easily outdo every other team.

[cliffyb]

Ohtani has won three MVPs. I think he’s a shoo-in for the Hall given what he’s accomplished.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

You're also ignoring the fact that he signed with the understanding that he would pitch. It's always been part of the deal with him.

If I'm paying him a billion dollars I will tell him where he plays.

[bk400]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If I'm paying him a billion dollars I will tell him where he plays.

I'm sympathetic to the employer-billionaire employee argument, but I'm also cynical enough to believe that the Dodgers want Ohtani to pitch for a couple of years, even if it shortens his career (and reduces the medium term winningness of the Dodgers). The increase in franchise value for two years of a prime, two-way Ohtani is so massive.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

If I'm paying him a billion dollars I will tell him where he plays.

If, when I signed him, I agreed to let him pitch, I would probably stand by that agreement. Nothing has changed since they signed him. Right now the Dodgers are a preferred destination. Piss off a couple superstars and that could change.

[Peter_Spaeth]

So he not only makes a billion dollars, he gets to dictate to the ownership and management? It might piss him off to take him out in the fourth inning too, or to limit his starts. Gee that might not go over well nobody's going to want to go there any more.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

So he not only makes a billion dollars, he gets to dictate to the ownership and management? It might piss him off to take him out in the fourth inning too, or to limit his starts. Gee that might not go over well nobody's going to want to go there any more.

If it was part of what the Dodgers agreed to for him to sign with them, then they should honor it unless they can get him to agree not to. Even if it's not written in the contract, if there was a verbal agreement, it should be honored.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jayshum

If it was part of what the Dodgers agreed to for him to sign with them, then they should honor it unless they can get him to agree not to. Even if it's not written in the contract, if there was a verbal agreement, it should be honored.

Even if it's to the detriment of the team and organization?

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Even if it's to the detriment of the team and organization?

You don't think going back on a verbal agreement would be to the detriment of the team and organization?

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jayshum

You don't think going back on a verbal agreement would be to the detriment of the team and organization?

Not nearly as much as risking your franchise player who has already undergone two Tommy John surgeries, no. He wasn't even that great a pitcher when he got hurt, he had been much better the prior year. I forget where Fangraphs had him but it wasn't all that high.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Not nearly as much as risking your franchise player who has already undergone two Tommy John surgeries, no. He wasn't even that great a pitcher when he got hurt, he had been much better the prior year. I forget where Fangraphs had him but it wasn't all that high.

He was 10-5 with a 3.14 ERA in 23 starts in 2023 for a WAR of 3.9 so not too shabby. I actually agree that they shouldn't risk having him pitch, but it's not like they didn't know he had already undergone 2 TJ surgeries when they signed him. However, if the part of the deal to get him to sign was that he wanted to pitch, unless they can convince him otherwise, they have to let him. Teams don't want other players to think that they're not sure if the Dodgers are as good as their word when considering signing with them.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

So he not only makes a billion dollars, he gets to dictate to the ownership and management? It might piss him off to take him out in the fourth inning too, or to limit his starts. Gee that might not go over well nobody's going to want to go there any more.

If they agreed to it when they signed him they should live up to it. You're setting up strawmen.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Even if it's to the detriment of the team and organization?

I keep my word to the detriment of my company on a somewhat regular basis.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

If they agreed to it when they signed him they should live up to it. You're setting up strawmen.

It's not really a straw man. What does it mean to "let him pitch"? Do you think the parties defined it? What if the team's idea of when and how to use him is completely different from Ohtani's? What if the team envisions using him in low-pressure mop up stints?

[bk400]

The Dodgers are already playing with house money when it comes to Ohtani. He's already a bargain at present value $461mm.

Why not let him pitch if that's what he and the global Dodgers / baseball fan base wants? If he blows out his elbow and is out for a year, the Dodgers can say they at least tried. If they don't let him pitch and force him into a DH role, it's very franchise value destroying on so many levels.