First $Billion$ Player....Elly de la Cruz?

[todeen]

Article in the Cincinnati newspaper said that baseball execs are projecting the first $Billion$ player about 2030. That would coincide with Elly de la Cruz' free agency. Same article said that execs estimate one WAR equals $10m. Soto had 6.5 WAR last year, so his annual average salary should be $65m. But the contract he just signed averaged out to $51m, so it is likely he was underpaid. Crazy! One exec said that Soto was offered a billion, but the money was deferred and Soto declined.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/spo...r/76934298007/

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[todeen]

Every thread needs a card.

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[D. Bergin]

I think De La Cruz's style of play and batting eye trends to a short peak. I think I compared him to Eric Davis before. Will be fun and magnificent while it lasts...but I don't think it will last long.

Analytics guys for teams will notice this before doling out that type of contract.

Acuna might have been competing with Soto for the biggest contract, if not for the injuries and the fact the Braves had the foresight to lock him into a contract very early in his career, but the timing would still be off for him to become the Billion$ guy.

Royals wrapped Bobby Witt Jr. up early also, for what's starting to look like a bargain now. So he's not that guy either.

Not sure that player has shown himself yet. Ohtani and Soto were sort of perfect storms of circumstance. I think it will be awhile now before we see another contract in competition with those two.

[packs]

I don't think Elly has a billion dollar ability. He's exciting but I agree he is more likely to have high highs and the lowest of lows. Could steady himself or he could turn into Joey Gallo.

I think the first billion dollar player will be a prospect who has A-Rod level hype, debuts at 18 and is a complete monster by the time he hits free agency at 25. A-Rod had already won a batting title, four silver sluggers and was coming off a 10.4 WAR season when he hit free agency. I could see a billion dollar contract for a guy like that come 2030. It was just too soon for Soto.

[Gorditadogg]

I would have turned down the deferred money too. What good is it if you can't spend it?

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

I would have turned down the deferred money too. What good is it if you can't spend it?

Bobby Bonilla's ex-wife would disagree with that sentiment.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

I think De La Cruz's style of play and batting eye trends to a short peak.

Elly de la Cruz looks to be in great physical condition though. Shouldn't you be more concerned about Juan Soto having passed his peak given that he already has a dad bod at the age of 26? While Soto was clearly an early bloomer, he may very well flame out early as well.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

Elly de la Cruz looks to be in great physical condition though. Shouldn't you be more concerned about Juan Soto having passed his peak given that he already has a dad bod at the age of 26? While Soto was clearly an early bloomer, he may very well flame out early as well.

Juan Soto is a power hitter who walks more then he strikes out.

Elly de la Cruz is a hitter with some power who strikes out almost 4 times more then he walks. This with the eyes of a 22 year-old. These type of optics rarely get better as a player ages.

Tony Gwynn, David Ortiz and Babe Ruth all had "dad bod's" for the majority of their careers.

A guy with Juan Soto's power, combined with his eye is a rare commodity in baseball...dad bod, or not. It's also the type of skill set that ages well. No, he won't ever win a Gold Glove or steal 50 bases, but what he does do is pretty predictable and repeatable for those who are good at it, and stay fairly healthy.

[packs]

I'm having trouble understanding the dad bod comments at all. Have you seen photos of Babe Ruth? Who would confuse him with Mr. Universe?

Baseball is about production. If people cared about your appearance, I doubt Randy Johnson would have had much of a career.

[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Elly de la Cruz is a hitter with some power who strikes out almost 4 times more then he walks. This with the eyes of a 22 year-old. These type of optics rarely get better as a player ages.

Elly de la Cruz needs to learn to hit the ball where it's pitched. That's something a good pitching coach should be able to teach him (unless he's a total idiot of course).

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Juan Soto is a power hitter who walks more then he strikes out.

A guy with Juan Soto's power, combined with his eye is a rare commodity in baseball...dad bod, or not. It's also the type of skill set that ages well. No, he won't ever win a Gold Glove or steal 50 bases, but what he does do is pretty predictable and repeatable for those who are good at it, and stay fairly healthy.

That though is the problem with Juan Soto. He's a one-dimensional power hitter. When that goes, he has nothing else to offer. Given that he's not shown the commitment to being the best that he can be, I think there's going to be a quick drop in his production and thus value to any team, particularly now that he's signed a guaranteed long-term contract.

But hey, if you're a Yankees fan, that should please you!

[todeen]

What struck me from the article was that it was so close to happening this year. They say it's 5 years away, but who knows, really. The agents and execs just made it sound like it's not an if, just a when. I agreed with a previous post, Witt's contact sure seems like a real bargain. Is it through his arbitration years, did he have opt outs, or is he locked in long term?

Elly has a lot of potential. He was worth 5.2 WAR this year, so by the metrics of the exec in the article (1 WAR = $10m), that's a $52m player the Reds are currently paying just $800k. I wish they would take those book keeping savings and go all in for a WS.

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[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by todeen

What struck me from the article was that it was so close to happening this year. They say it's 5 years away, but who knows, really. The agents and execs just made it sound like it's not an if, just a when. I agreed with a previous post, Witt's contact sure seems like a real bargain. Is it through his arbitration years, did he have opt outs, or is he locked in long term?



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I think Witt has an opt out at age 30. Depends on how his career goes on whether he takes it or not.

[packs]

Soto is not just a young guy hitting free agency though. Not just anyone is going to get a billion dollars. I think if Soto were 5 years younger and starting his career now he would be the billion dollar guy. He’s a generational talent but there are only so many who achieve that status so young.

All that to say being a free agent in 2030 isn’t going to get you a billion dollars. You have to be as good or better than a Soto or A-Rod.

[Balticfox]

I'll be impressed when Elly de la Cruz becomes the new Charlie Hustle in Cincinnati and starts running hard to first after a walk. I'm surprised that the Reds' Manager Francona and player captains haven't made that a team rule yet.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

I'll be impressed when Elly de la Cruz becomes the new Charlie Hustle in Cincinnati and starts running hard to first after a walk. I'm surprised that the Reds' Manager Francona and player captains haven't made that a team rule yet.

It's the Robinson Cano rule.

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[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by packs

Soto is not just a young guy hitting free agency though. Not just anyone is going to get a billion dollars. I think if Soto were 5 years younger and starting his career now he would be the billion dollar guy. He’s a generational talent but there are only so many who achieve that status so young.

All that to say being a free agent in 2030 isn’t going to get you a billion dollars. You have to be as good or better than a Soto or A-Rod.

This is my problem. I don't see him as a generational talent. To me a generational talent is a model of production AND consistency. The most recent 26 year old I would call a "generational talent" was Trout. Not one guy since Trout hits that descriptor for me.

Lots of great players, Betts, Harper, Judge etc. but to be a "generational talent" you have to be pretty much unique to your era.

[packs]

I think Trout is the better player but their stats through age 25 are not that far apart. What I think makes Soto special is his ability to get on base and score runs without striking out. He has scored 655 career runs to 696 strike outs. Soto is extremely disciplined and especially for his age.

[todeen]

MLB THE SHOW 25 cover.

A teammate said of De La Cruz, He is like a "create a player" from a video game.



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[Balticfox]

Originally Posted by todeen

A teammate said of De La Cruz, He is like a "create a player" from a video game.

Truthfully I don't really understand all the hype he's drawing. The 67 bases he stole in 2024 wasn't a particularly striking total. Here are some other stolen base per year totals from recent years:

2023 Ronald Acuña Jr. - 73
2023 Esteury Ruiz - 67
2010 Juan Pierre - 68
2009 - Jacoby Ellsbury - 70
2008 Willy Taveras - 68
2007 José Reyes - 78

Even Reyes didn't draw the hype despite leading the National League in stolen bases three years in a row from 2005 to 2007 and leading the National League in triples in 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2011.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

Truthfully I don't really understand all the hype he's drawing. The 67 bases he stole in 2024 wasn't a particularly striking total. Here are some other stolen base per year totals from recent years:



2023 Ronald Acuña Jr. - 73

2023 Esteury Ruiz - 67

2010 Juan Pierre - 68

2009 - Jacoby Ellsbury - 70

2008 Willy Tavares - 68

2007 José Reyes - 78



Even Reyes didn't draw the hype despite leading the National League in stolen bases three years in a row from 2005 t20o 07 and leading the National League in triples in 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2011.

Elly has speed, power, RBI production. And he produced these numbers in his second season AGE 22!!! He is seen as unpolished, and if he matures he can be something greater.

2023 Acuna age 25 = 6th season of pro ball vs Elly's second (tons of hype for Acuna, though)
2023 Ruiz age 23 = stolen bases but no power (.345 SLG vs .471 for Cruz)
2010 Pierre 32 yo [25yo in 2003 when he stole 65] = stolen bases but no power (18 career HR)
2009 Ellsbury age 25 = stolen bases but no power (9 HR in 2008, 8 HR in 2009)
2009 Tavares age 26 = stolen bases but no power & no RBI (8 career HR)
2008 Reyes age 24 = good comparison, but never topped 20 HR. I remember a lot of hype around Reyes, though.


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[D. Bergin]

Yeah, Reyes had tons of hype and a pretty good career...but he wasn't really a power guy and he hit his wall after his age 31 season.

Unfortunately, de la Cruz profiles like a lot of players who are electric for a certain number of years, but don't age very well.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

Yeah, Reyes had tons of hype and a pretty good career...but he wasn't really a power guy and he hit his wall after his age 31 season.



Unfortunately, de la Cruz profiles like a lot of players who are electric for a certain number of years, but don't age very well.

I agree, but because Elly is so much younger, he will have a 10 year career before hitting a wall, a la Mike Trout or Griffey Jr. Elly will get his pay day, and then be an albatross on some other team not named the Reds.

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[sbfinley]

Originally Posted by Balticfox

Truthfully I don't really understand all the hype he's drawing.

When you see him in person it makes sense. He's the best raw athlete in baseball. He has the physical ability to be the best slugger, base stealer, and middle defender in baseball. He's incredibly raw and still learning and yet put nearly 6 WAR in his first full season. The hype is what he'll accomplish if he becomes a polished player.

[Peter_Spaeth]

2 HR 7 RBI today.