First $Billion$ Player....Elly de la Cruz?
 

Article in the Cincinnati newspaper said that baseball execs are projecting the first $Billion$ player about 2030. That would coincide with Elly de la Cruz' free agency. Same article said that execs estimate one WAR equals $10m. Soto had 6.5 WAR last year, so his annual average salary should be $65m. But the contract he just signed averaged out to $51m, so it is likely he was underpaid. Crazy! [emoji2962] One exec said that Soto was offered a billion, but the money was deferred and Soto declined.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/spo...r/76934298007/

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I think De La Cruz's style of play and batting eye trends to a short peak. I think I compared him to Eric Davis before. Will be fun and magnificent while it lasts...but I don't think it will last long.

Analytics guys for teams will notice this before doling out that type of contract.

Acuna might have been competing with Soto for the biggest contract, if not for the injuries and the fact the Braves had the foresight to lock him into a contract very early in his career, but the timing would still be off for him to become the Billion$ guy.

Royals wrapped Bobby Witt Jr. up early also, for what's starting to look like a bargain now. So he's not that guy either.

Not sure that player has shown himself yet. Ohtani and Soto were sort of perfect storms of circumstance. I think it will be awhile now before we see another contract in competition with those two.

I don't think Elly has a billion dollar ability. He's exciting but I agree he is more likely to have high highs and the lowest of lows. Could steady himself or he could turn into Joey Gallo.

I think the first billion dollar player will be a prospect who has A-Rod level hype, debuts at 18 and is a complete monster by the time he hits free agency at 25. A-Rod had already won a batting title, four silver sluggers and was coming off a 10.4 WAR season when he hit free agency. I could see a billion dollar contract for a guy like that come 2030. It was just too soon for Soto.

I would have turned down the deferred money too. What good is it if you can't spend it?

Bobby Bonilla's ex-wife would disagree with that sentiment. ;)

Elly is an electrifying player but he has a long way to go before he gets into the billion dollar club IMO. The biggest thing he has to do is prove that he can hit and get on base consistently for a few more years, which will make up for when the speed declines later on.

What struck me from the article was that it was so close to happening this year. They say it's 5 years away, but who knows, really. The agents and execs just made it sound like it's not an if, just a when. I agreed with a previous post, Witt's contact sure seems like a real bargain. Is it through his arbitration years, did he have opt outs, or is he locked in long term?

Elly has a lot of potential. He was worth 5.2 WAR this year, so by the metrics of the exec in the article (1 WAR = $10m), that's a $52m player the Reds are currently paying just $800k. I wish they would take those book keeping savings and go all in for a WS.

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I think Witt has an opt out at age 30. Depends on how his career goes on whether he takes it or not.

Soto is not just a young guy hitting free agency though. Not just anyone is going to get a billion dollars. I think if Soto were 5 years younger and starting his career now he would be the billion dollar guy. He’s a generational talent but there are only so many who achieve that status so young.

All that to say being a free agent in 2030 isn’t going to get you a billion dollars. You have to be as good or better than a Soto or A-Rod.

I'll be impressed when Elly de la Cruz becomes the new Charlie Hustle in Cincinnati and starts running hard to first after a walk. I'm surprised that the Reds' Manager Francona and player captains haven't made that a team rule yet.

;)

It's the Robinson Cano rule.

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CPI for the past year was 2.7%, excluding food and energy it was 3.3%. Call it three percent. Assuming 3% annual inflation over the next six years, if Soto had signed his contract in 2030, it would be worth about $910m.

(Or $861 if the Fed hits their 2% target.)

If we bake-in expected inflation between now and when the baseball execs are predicting a billion dollar player, Soto is already pretty close. They're really predicting an increase in baseball salaries of about 10-15% in real terms over the next six years. That's not a very aggressive prediction. Six years ago Mike Trout had the top salary, at $34m; David Price and Miguel Cabrera were at $30m. Those are still healthy salaries, but not at the top of the scales anymore. This past year there were four players above $40, and tenth place was Giancarlo Stanton at $32.

As for who it will be: my guess is no one currently active. They would need to be a free agent you would want to sign for 15 years (or more), which means they would need to hit free agency extremely young. De la Cruz will be 28. He's great and all, but it's hard to imagine someone wanting to sign him through age 43. Gunnar Henderson has been better so far, but is a year older (so doesn't benefit from an extra year of salary inflation). Skenes is the same age as de la Cruz, but it's hard to imagine a 15 year contract for a pitcher. It's got to be someone who isn't in the majors yet.

There are few, if any players in the history of Free Agency that would ever approach 1 Billion. Soto was one of them. Generational hitting talent, but lacking in the field/on the base paths. I said this before in the Soto thread, I truly don't think any player is worth that amount, but I'm beating a dead horse.

Within the Last 25 years? I think small group of players, had they played in todays game/financial climate would get the Billion dollar contract, had they hit free agency at the age of 25. Trout and ARod both come to mind, as the numbers they were putting up their first few seasons in the big leagues were absurd and they were both five tool threats. Albert Pujols as well, based off of his offensive production alone, as he set the world on fire offensively the moment he entered the league, and would've most likely have won 2-3 MVPs had it not been for Barry Bonds.

Point is, I do not think Elly will sniff 1 Billion Dollars. He's not in that category.

Hmmmm, Juan Soto's batting averages in the last two years were .275 and .288 and he had 68 and 76 multi-base hits respectively in those two years. If Soto's a "generational hitting talent", you'll have to forgive this old guy for sneering at today's younger generation.

Speaking of Soto as part of the current generation of ballplayers though, I hope most of them are in better shape. I actually have more of a six pack than does Soto and I'm close to three times his age!

;)

Soto is most definitely a generational talent. He is 25 years old and has 7 seasons in the MLB behind him already. The list of players who can say the same is very small.

In that time he has won 5 Silver Sluggers, the World Series, a batting title, and has averaged 6.3 WAR per season, along with an average OPS of 953 and an average OPS+ of 160.

That is not only a HOFer, but a tier 1 all time talent.

Don't get too hung up on batting average. Luis Arraez has led the league in hitting the last three seasons but I don't think anyone considers him a generational talent.

Sigh, what's his OBP those seasons?

Talking about 6 packs, LOL. I hope you're not one of those who wax poetically about how superior Babe Ruth is to everybody today.

Don't remember Tony Gwynn or Wade Boggs having 6 packs either.

But yeah, some asshole called him a thug in the YouTube comments once....:rolleyes:

Yup. People getting carried away with old-timey thoughts about Arraez to. "A throw back", "A real hitter", "How a hitter should always be". Don't get me wrong. He's a nice little player. "Professional Hitter" as they say....but he's Ralph Garr 2.0. Mid-career Ichiro without the speed or defense. That's about it.

Just one batting title in seven years? Nor has he even been in contention for the batting title in the last three years. And I noticed that you neglected to mention the Golden Gloves Soto has won. I suspect there may be some reason for that.

My standards for "generational talent" and "tier 1 all time talent" are either higher than yours or pickings are rather slim these days. Looking no further than New York, I'd have to say Aaron Judge fits those descriptions better.

Huh?! Is that possible?

No, Luis Arraez isn't a generational talent. I will say that he's grossly underrated though. It's probably a media thing because he's not playing in New York or Los Angeles.

:(

Here, I'll be kind enough to look it up for you - .410 in 2023 and .419 in 2024.

Nor did they ask for private boxes in contract negotiations.

And shouldn't any such comparison also be age adjusted? A professional athlete (especially in this day and age) should be in peak physical condition at the age of 26.

Certainly not! I might wax poetic about Honus Wagner, Ty Cobb, Stan Musial or Roberto Clemente, but only benighted Yankee fans would wax poetic about "The Big Baboon".

I won't call Juan Soto a thug. I will call him lazy, out-of-shape, over entitled and overrated though. And I wish he'd gotten his private suite at Yankee Stadium and stayed with the New York Yankees. I've been a Yankee hater since grade one and I'm always glad to add another reason!

:p

:D OK, I'll admit I respect you for answering all that point by point.

Even if I don't agree with some of it. ;)

Babe Ruth won one batting title in 22 seasons.

I don't know why you're knocking Soto on his average. He's the active leader among all of baseball in career on base percentage right now. Doesn't that counteract any deficiencies in batting average?

I can't recall the stat off the top of my head, I believe it was OPS+, but Soto equaled or bettered the likes of Mantle and Williams in it by the same age. Not saying that he will end up with a better career then either of those players but he's certainly off to a promising start. Though numbers aren't everything, but they certainly are a part of the equation.

I'm glad you brought up Mantle. He would have also been another faux generational talent with only a single batting title in his first seven seasons.

No. Perhaps if he has a SLG of 604 or even 575 it would make up for it. Soto has a good year with Judge hitting behind him. Who from the Mets is going to get Soto pitched to? Drawing walks so the guy behind you can make the last out isn't a recipe for success.

That's your opinion but in my life I was taught from a very early age that a walk is as good as a hit. His career slugging percentage is 532.

Elly de la Cruz looks to be in great physical condition though. Shouldn't you be more concerned about Juan Soto having passed his peak given that he already has a dad bod at the age of 26? While Soto was clearly an early bloomer, he may very well flame out early as well.

:confused:

I agree. Given that Mickey Mantle was part of a generation stocked with luminaries such as Ted Williams, Stan Musial, Willie Mays, Hank Aaron and Roberto Clemente, Mantle can hardly be considered a generational talent.

Ted Williams was 32 years old when Mantle debuted at 19. Stan Musial was 30.

Juan Soto is a power hitter who walks more then he strikes out.

Elly de la Cruz is a hitter with some power who strikes out almost 4 times more then he walks. This with the eyes of a 22 year-old. These type of optics rarely get better as a player ages.

Tony Gwynn, David Ortiz and Babe Ruth all had "dad bod's" for the majority of their careers.

A guy with Juan Soto's power, combined with his eye is a rare commodity in baseball...dad bod, or not. It's also the type of skill set that ages well. No, he won't ever win a Gold Glove or steal 50 bases, but what he does do is pretty predictable and repeatable for those who are good at it, and stay fairly healthy.

I'm having trouble understanding the dad bod comments at all. Have you seen photos of Babe Ruth? Who would confuse him with Mr. Universe?

Baseball is about production. If people cared about your appearance, I doubt Randy Johnson would have had much of a career.

All of which fits the "generation" definition:

First of all, let me dispel the notion that I'm any fan of Babe Ruth.

Secondly I'm arguing that Juan Soto's lack of attention to conditioning indicates that he doesn't much care about being the best that he can be. That should be a concern. Moreover age isn't kind to any athlete, but it's even less kind to those who abuse their bodies, e.g. Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle, instead of working to stay in peak physical condition.

Quite simply, I don't think Juan Soto is destined to play well as long as (sticking to Yankees) Derek Jeter or now Aaron Judge.

This is where I check out of the thread. Mantle's Weighted Runs Created Plus for his career has only been outdone by Ruth, Williams, Bonds and Gehrig. It's the one stat that is adjusted for park value, and is era adjusted. If you want to go the traditional route he won 3 MVP's, a slew of World Series, and a Triple Crown despite having one functioning knee.

Neither of our opinions will change though. I hope you have a nice day.

Wait I was only making a sarcastic comment based on another one made about Juan Soto, who also won a batting title. My opinion is that Soto and Mantle are both generational talents. It's another poster who doesn't.

I would not say that a 32 year old Ted Williams was part of the same generation as 19 year old Mickey Mantle. He was a contemporary of Joe DiMaggio, whose career ended when Mantle's began.

My apologies, I was quick to respond and didn't read through the thread properly. That's what I get, typing from my phone!

Elly de la Cruz needs to learn to hit the ball where it's pitched. That's something a good pitching coach should be able to teach him (unless he's a total idiot of course).

That though is the problem with Juan Soto. He's a one-dimensional power hitter. When that goes, he has nothing else to offer. Given that he's not shown the commitment to being the best that he can be, I think there's going to be a quick drop in his production and thus value to any team, particularly now that he's signed a guaranteed long-term contract.

But hey, if you're a Yankees fan, that should please you!

;)

This is my problem. I don't see him as a generational talent. To me a generational talent is a model of production AND consistency. The most recent 26 year old I would call a "generational talent" was Trout. Not one guy since Trout hits that descriptor for me.

Lots of great players, Betts, Harper, Judge etc. but to be a "generational talent" you have to be pretty much unique to your era.

I think Trout is the better player but their stats through age 25 are not that far apart. What I think makes Soto special is his ability to get on base and score runs without striking out. He has scored 655 career runs to 696 strike outs. Soto is extremely disciplined and especially for his age.

It's an opinion thing to be sure, but Trout was, by WAR, the best player in the league 5 of his first 7 seasons and missed out on one of the other two seasons despite putting up a 9.9 WAR.

Soto has done so once with a less than stellar 7.1, a total Trout only failed to better one time (he had a 6.9)

I also don't understand the hatred of strikeouts. While they can't ever advance a runner it's pretty rare for them to result in losing a runner.

Trout grounded into 48 Double plays his first 7 full seasons. (I am not counting his cup of coffee age 19 call up which would raise the total to 50) Soto has hit into 84 in his first 7 and one of those was a VERY short Covid season. That's more than Trout has in his entire career by a decent margin.

Since they have a similar OBP (and Trout was actually ahead of Soto at the end of 7 seasons) where's the advantage in not striking out? I would argue that making bad contact and grounding into a much higher rate of double plays but avoiding a strikeout is a productivity negative.

None of this is to say that Soto isn't a stud, but like the other guys I mentioned, he doesn't live up to my definition of a generational talent.

These two comments equate to Joey Votto: elite OBP, but didn't drive in runs. He was skewered by fans and analysts. He was the best hitter on the team, got on base, and his team hardly ever made the postseason because no one could drive him in. People debate if Votto is a first ballot HOF'er.

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If Votto had retired after the 2021 season he would have retired a career 302 hitter. I think he gets in eventually after Helton did, but is similarly not a first ballot guy.

Elly de la Cruz is on the cover of the Sports Illustrated kids this month with "Art of the Steal" being the cover blurb:

https://hosting.photobucket.com/85c5...7a87e1483b.png

:cool:

MLB THE SHOW 25 cover.

A teammate said of De La Cruz, He is like a "create a player" from a video game.

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Truthfully I don't really understand all the hype he's drawing. The 67 bases he stole in 2024 wasn't a particularly striking total. Here are some other stolen base per year totals from recent years:

2023 Ronald Acuña Jr. - 73
2023 Esteury Ruiz - 67
2010 Juan Pierre - 68
2009 - Jacoby Ellsbury - 70
2008 Willy Taveras - 68
2007 José Reyes - 78

Even Reyes didn't draw the hype despite leading the National League in stolen bases three years in a row from 2005 to 2007 and leading the National League in triples in 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2011.

:confused:

Elly has speed, power, RBI production. And he produced these numbers in his second season AGE 22!!! He is seen as unpolished, and if he matures he can be something greater.

2023 Acuna age 25 = 6th season of pro ball vs Elly's second (tons of hype for Acuna, though)
2023 Ruiz age 23 = stolen bases but no power (.345 SLG vs .471 for Cruz)
2010 Pierre 32 yo [25yo in 2003 when he stole 65] = stolen bases but no power (18 career HR)
2009 Ellsbury age 25 = stolen bases but no power (9 HR in 2008, 8 HR in 2009)
2009 Tavares age 26 = stolen bases but no power & no RBI (8 career HR)
2008 Reyes age 24 = good comparison, but never topped 20 HR. I remember a lot of hype around Reyes, though.


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Yeah, Reyes had tons of hype and a pretty good career...but he wasn't really a power guy and he hit his wall after his age 31 season.

Unfortunately, de la Cruz profiles like a lot of players who are electric for a certain number of years, but don't age very well.

I agree, but because Elly is so much younger, he will have a 10 year career before hitting a wall, a la Mike Trout or Griffey Jr. Elly will get his pay day, and then be an albatross on some other team not named the Reds.

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When you see him in person it makes sense. He's the best raw athlete in baseball. He has the physical ability to be the best slugger, base stealer, and middle defender in baseball. He's incredibly raw and still learning and yet put nearly 6 WAR in his first full season. The hype is what he'll accomplish if he becomes a polished player.

2 HR 7 RBI today.