Different bidding patterns

[Peter_Spaeth]

This is more anecdotal than scientific, but I am frequently struck by how some cards on ebay and to an extent in auctions start out pretty slowly and either gradually run up or don't have much movement until the very end; whereas some just seem to charge out of the box and be at a high percentage of value within a day or two or few.

If I were a cynic, I would say it's sometimes (often even) the difference between legitimate bidding, and cards being pushed up by their consignors.

But of course I'm not a cynic so it's all good.

[Casey2296]

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It seems to me with auction houses there is an initial surge day one with placeholder bids, bidding slowly going up during the 3 week period the auction is open as more bidders become aware, and another bump the day before and day of auction on certain cards as bidders focus on what they want.

The true action is always extended bidding period when it goes lot by lot, although I've seen some cards sell at the bid just prior to extended bidding if they've been run up.
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[BioCRN]

If it's a card I really want then I bid somewhat high to get less eyes on the auction from those looking a bargain later. It takes a 2nd person with a bid-high(ish) mindset to make it work, though.

I want people to bow out early or decide the buy-in is already too high (or too close to it) before they bid and get reminders about it.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

I wish I had any theory as to bidding patterns. We have auctions where we get to 50% of projections with a week or more left and other times we don't get there until 3 or 4 days left, yet in each case the auction ends up roughly on projection. Lately it's been even more unpredictable.

[Peter_Spaeth]

In the good old PWCC days, there were certain types of cards that would run up to 90 percent right out of the gate.

[raulus]

Based on the OP, I’m guessing this is intended to be an expose on shilling and other shenanigans.

So I guess we had better first decide whether there’s shilling or not. If there is shilling, then that could explain some of the zooming right out of the gate. Although there’s every possibility a good zoom could be legit, just with a couple of bidders deciding to not wait in terms of trying to out-bid each other. And there’s nothing to prevent a shill from waiting until the last minute to do their thing.

I tend to suspect that shilling is less prevalent than we fear, but probably not zero. But unless you’re the one doing the shilling, it’s hard to really know whether there’s shilling involved, or just another motivated collector you’re competing against. Even if the card comes right back onto the market, that’s not a dead giveaway that the auction was shilled, although it definitely gives you a bad taste.

I do think with eBay that sniping services make a difference, as there’s no ability to keep bidding once the auction ends. Get your bids in and that’s it. It’s not uncommon with that format to see a big jump in the last 5 seconds as the snipes come rolling in. And sometimes a couple of snipers put in ludicrous bids because they don’t want to lose, and figure no one else will be stupid enough to go that high. So one of them gets to pay 5x what it’s worth just because they didn’t want to lose. And the loser gets to have that comp thrown in their face for the next few years when they try to buy another one.

With the more traditional AH format that doesn’t allow for sniping, most auctions do seem to wait until the end, and that’s not surprising. I have participated in some serious zooms right out of the gate when some other bidder and I just decided there was no point in waiting. The other guy ended up winning, so I’m assuming he wasn’t just a shill, especially because the card didn’t come back onto the market.

[Lorewalker]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

In the good old PWCC days, there were certain types of cards that would run up to 90 percent right out of the gate.

I am still seeing that with a certain house but nothing like the BS that took place in the days of PWCC. No incentive for any bidder, unless it is their consignment, to see a huge run up. It is not a race.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I like that term for it, a zoom.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

In the good old PWCC days, there were certain types of cards that would run up to 90 percent right out of the gate.

These are almost always cards with extraordinary eye appeal or cards that are in high demand and that are very difficult to just find any copy of.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Snowman

These are almost always cards with extraordinary eye appeal or cards that are in high demand and that are very difficult to just find any copy of.

Non sequitur. One, what does that have to do with the bidding pattern, if I really wanted a card on ebay the last thing I would do was keep running it up and bidding against myself six hours after it was listed. Two, with PWCC it was by no means limited to special cards. Three, it seemed very frequently the bids were placed by the same bidders, and or bidders with huge numbers of retractions.

[ccre]

This is exactly how I do it as well.

Originally Posted by BioCRN

If it's a card I really want then I bid somewhat high to get less eyes on the auction from those looking a bargain later. It takes a 2nd person with a bid-high(ish) mindset to make it work, though.

I want people to bow out early or decide the buy-in is already too high (or too close to it) before they bid and get reminders about it.

[Peter_Spaeth]

My guess is that bidding strategies designed to impact the motivation/behavior of other bidders are wishful thinking and in a controlled experiment would not work out any differently than bidding late.

[Snapolit1]

I'm guessing the best bidding strategy is prob to bid for the first time 5 seconds before early bidding closes. In that case you have affected nothing and done nothing to draw attention to the auction.

But what fun is that.

[ALR-bishop]

I guess I need to devise a strategy.

[iwantitiwinit]

Originally Posted by BioCRN

If it's a card I really want then I bid somewhat high to get less eyes on the auction from those looking a bargain later. It takes a 2nd person with a bid-high(ish) mindset to make it work, though.

I want people to bow out early or decide the buy-in is already too high (or too close to it) before they bid and get reminders about it.

I often do the same.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

I would also say that if an auction's rules say you have to have a bid on a given item before extended bidding to be eligible to bid on that item in extended bidding, it might be advantageous to limit the number of competitors by bidding the item up early so some people don't bother putting in a placeholder.

[MattyC]

I tend to bid very hard out of the gate. If a card I really want is destined to sail past my max, I want to know that as soon as possible, so I can pivot. I will also respond immediately to outbid notifications and go right over whoever outbid me.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I tend to bid very hard out of the gate. If a card I really want is destined to sail past my max, I want to know that as soon as possible, so I can pivot. I will also respond immediately to outbid notifications and go right over whoever outbid me.

This is usually why I've bid heavy in the early stages in the cases where I've done it. It's often because I have a budget of $X and there are multiple cards I want to win, so I want to narrow down my options. I've also done it when there was another copy of the same card going in a different auction and I don't want to miss out on both copies, so I want to get a feel for what sort of competition I'm up against.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

This is more anecdotal than scientific, but I am frequently struck by how some cards on ebay and to an extent in auctions start out pretty slowly and either gradually run up or don't have much movement until the very end; whereas some just seem to charge out of the box and be at a high percentage of value within a day or two or few.

If I were a cynic, I would say it's sometimes (often even) the difference between legitimate bidding, and cards being pushed up by their consignors.

But of course I'm not a cynic so it's all good.

I have noticed this for a long time on many sites. Not sure of the rhyme or reason, but it definitely is worth a look.

I think the bigger issue when said cards are auctioned off again in the next few months after the auctions ends. Lots of retreads show up and they show often. I am most wary of those.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

I have noticed this for a long time on many sites. Not sure of the rhyme or reason, but it definitely is worth a look.

I think the bigger issue when said cards are auctioned off again in the next few months after the auctions ends. Lots of retreads show up and they show often. I am most wary of those.

I call them Musical Chair Comps...

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I call them Musical Chair Comps...

No way those cards are all people legitimately trying to flip them which would require a 20 percent gain just to break even. There is no visibility at all into auctions, we don't know who consigned, we don't know who bid, we don't know who won or "won."