2024 Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker

[perezfan]

Well, it's already that time of year...the Baseball HOF will release its list of new inductees in less than a week. I know there will be lots of diatribe, analytics being thrown around and people saying that "their guy" was snubbed.

But my question is.... How much of a drop-off typically occurs in the final week of voting? I know that traditionally the voting percentages dip significantly in this final week. I just don't recall how much... 75% is the threshold for induction.

As of this writing, Beltre is looking like a lock at 98.8%. Mauer and Helton are both looking pretty good at 82.5%. Billy Wagner appears to be hanging on at 79.5%, but he may be vulnerable. Sheffield (74.7%), Andruw Jones (71,7%) and Beltran (66.3%) look like they'll probably fall short. Utley, A-Rod, Manny and the rest of the field appear to have no shot this year.

So is it just Wagner and Sheffield that are on the bubble? Wagner is in his 9th year of eligibility and it's Sheffield's last shot. Eager to hear others' thoughts...

Here's the easy-to-read recap...

http://www.bbhoftracker.com/

And the full tracker...

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?...GrU1OUsbz4WHyU

[doug.goodman]

Andruw Jones was so so (SO) terrible when he was with the Dodgers that it's hard for those of us who experienced it to imagine him in the Hall.

And he walked to the plate to the song "Don't Worry, Be Happy" which just seemed like a joke. If had used a song called "Don't Hate Me, I Really Am Trying" maybe we wouldn't hate him as much.

[refz]

Beltre is a sure lock. With the exception of Mauer these other guys I don’t think will get in. Jones & Sheffield both imo should not be considered that high in the voting. Wasn’t Sheffield linked to ped’s at one time ? Bartolo Colon may be a surprise as to how high his votes get.

[Sinker Slider]

The percentage drop varies by player (and some go up). If you look at the full tracker there’s a row comparing 2023 actual vs pre vote percentages. Helton dropped 6.4% last year from the pre-released tracker to the actual votes, and has gained a net of 0 votes in the pre-released ballots so far this year, so it looks like he will be very close to 75% and hard to predict.

Wagner has a lower total now, but only dropped about 4% last year and has gained 7 votes so far in the pre-released, so he will also be very close.

[BioCRN]

It's time for Billy Wagner. If the 1-inning guy not throwing 1000 innings in a career is going to hold as "not enough" then it could be a very long time before a closer gets into the hall.

Francisco Rodriguez could use a bit more love, too. It will be interesting to see if he gains steam in 2025+ if Wagner gets in.

[Shankweather]

Originally Posted by BioCRN

It's time for Billy Wagner. If the 1-inning guy not throwing 1000 innings in a career is going to hold as "not enough" then it could be a very long time before a closer gets into the hall.

Francisco Rodriguez could use a bit more love, too. It will be interesting to see if he gains steam in 2025+ if Wagner gets in.

1000 career innings seems like a reasonable threshold. I know the way closers are currently used makes it hard to accumulate innings, but that doesn't change the fact that you can't create HOF-level value on the field in 900 innings. I just can't put Wagner's 900 ahead of (for example) Mark Buehrle's 3200. No way Wagner contributed more to winning games than Buehrle.

[jayshum]

The full tracker has tabs for previous years so you can see the difference in percentages of votes players received on ballots released before and after the results were announced. In general, the percent of votes received by someone is lower on the ballots released after the results are announced or never released at all than the percent received on ballots released before the results are announced. However, there are some players that do better so you can't always say for certain what will happen.

Beltre appears to be a lock at this point since he has only been left off of 2 ballots out of 166 reported as of 8:00 AM on January 17.

Mauer appears to have a decent chance since he's at 82.5%, but since it's his first year, there's no way to know how he will do on unreleased ballots compared to the already released ballots.

Helton is also at 82.5%. Last year, he was at 78.6% before the results were released and ended at 72.2% of the total so he went down. Since he's currently a little higher than last year, he may just get in or just miss. However, he needed to gain 11 votes from last year, and so far, he's picked up 4 votes from returning voters and also lost 4 votes from returning voters so no net gain. Of course, the voting pool changes every year, and he has received 10 of 12 votes from new voters and voters that did not vote last year. All of the above indicates it will again be very close for Helton this year.

Wagner is at 79.5% currently. Last year, he was at 72.3% before results were announced and ended at 68.1% so he also went down. He needed to pick up 27 votes and so far only has a net increase of 7 from returning voters compared to last year and also has received 10 of 12 votes from new voters and voters that did not vote last year. If the same pattern is seen this year, it looks like Wagner will likely fall a little short.

Sheffield is at 74.7% currently. He dropped from 62.6% to end at 55.0% last year, but since this is his last year on the ballot, his results could be different. He needed 78 more votes and so far only has a net increase of 11, and he's received 8 out of 12 votes from new voters and voters that did not vote last year which is only 66.7%. I think it's likely Sheffield does not get in this year.

Andruw Jones is at 71.7% currently and dropped from 66.5% to 58.1% last year so it also looks unlikely he gets in this year.

Beltran is at 66.3% and also dropped last year so it looks unlikely for his as well. However, some voters may have decided not to vote for him the first year because of the Astros cheating scandal he was part of but be more willing to vote for him now. Whether it's enough to get him in remains to be seen, but so far, it looks doubtful.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by refz

Beltre is a sure lock. With the exception of Mauer these other guys I don’t think will get in. Jones & Sheffield both imo should not be considered that high in the voting. Wasn’t Sheffield linked to ped’s at one time ? Bartolo Colon may be a surprise as to how high his votes get.

Sheffield's link to PEDs and BALCO is through working out with Bonds, and he has maintained he did not know he was being given a steroid to use and stopped using it when he found out. The link below is to an article by Jay Jaffe and has more information about it:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and...ary-sheffield/

As for Colon, how high do you think he will end up? Currently, he has received 1 vote out of 166 made public so it looks unlikely he will get the 5% he needs to stay on the ballot another year.

[FrankWakefield]

Sorry, guys. There's too much contrariness and 20th century in me for me, otherwise I could have refrained from posting...

I saw Sheffield play, I don't think he's HOF caliber, ditto for Andruw Jones (although he could run down stuff in the outfield).

Helton should be in. And A-Rod should, in my opinion. And I can accept Billy Wagner getting in. And just maybe, Beltran.

Seems to me that virtually all of the HOFers who were in when I was a kid, were guys deserving to me in. But I feel like players get voted in now because there is a perception that someone should be going in most all the time.

Larry Yount... he may be the answer. I know I'm in the minority about so many modern players getting in, so maybe the extreme at the opposite end of the my thinking on the HOF spectrum would work. Just vote EVERYONE in who makes it to the majors, and gets into a game. Larry gets in (I'm not hating on him, he could pitch fairly well), and everyone else who gets in a ML game.

Ya'll can get back to talking 21st century HOF stuff. Some of those guys you're discussing will get in. But should they?

[packs]

Andruw Jones is getting talked about but he was not very good. He was a great fielding centerfielder for a decade but more than anything else he is a 254 career hitter who didn't hit 500 home runs. His 254 average would put him one point above Ray Schalk as the lowest average among HOFers .

[todeen]

Bronson Arroyo hints that many players were using PEDs while on the Red Sox. It's no surprise to me that Ortiz was too.

Sent from my SM-G9900 using Tapatalk

[Chuck9788]

My tribute to our new Hall of Fame additions!

[mainemule]

I don't get to show these off very often, since signed index cards are not all that glamorous, and get harder and harder to find. I like the simplicity and the total focus on the signature.

[Kaneen]

^^^^^ Scott - those index card signatures are sweet! Thanks for sharing

[mainemule]

Originally Posted by Kaneen

^^^^^ Scott - those index card signatures are sweet! Thanks for sharing

Thank you- sorry for the oversized images.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by mainemule

Thank you- sorry for the oversized images.

Nice autos and the pics were resized.
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