Is this really a buyer’s market?

[bcbgcbrcb]

If you are one of those who watch YouTube content regularly, you have surely heard just about every channel lately touting what a great time it is to buy sports cards with prices being so far below levels of a year or two ago. Well, today I did some exploring on eBay, searching for the GOAT vintage basketball cards that have come down the most over the past couple of years. As a buyer looking for good deals on ‘61 Fleer Wilts, Oscars, Jerrys and ‘69 Kareems, I came up empty handed. Beginning with the lowest PSA priced of each one of those cards, all I found was every single card with roughly 90/10 centering one way or the other or both with basically zero exhibiting what I would describe as superior eye appeal for the grade. I went up to around PSA 5 levels for each without being able to find a single example that I would be looking to jump on if I had the excess funds to make a purchase right now. As just a small sampling, I didn’t do any football, hockey or baseball but would expect to find similar results.

So, my conclusion is that no sellers or extremely few sellers are willing to part with their high eye appeal cards in this market and if they could possibly just hold on to all of them without selling, they absolutely will do that. Thus, where does that leave the astute buyer looking to take advantage of the down market as everyone is promoting? Take what you can get? This doesn’t seem like an ideal buying strategy to me.

[parkplace33]

I have a long post about why I am waiting a while to purchase a card. But I will tell you that looking on eBay is about the worst thing to do if you want to buy a card. It is mostly all just show and tell now.

[raulus]

I think the biggest flaw in your strategy is probably your venue. Expecting to get screaming deals on eBay (particularly for BIN stuff or high starting bids) is a bit optimistic, aside from an occasional lucky strike.

I suspect if you look to the average auction house, particularly for mid grade stuff that is readily available, you’ll find some prices that are more enticing. Some stuff will still go nuts. But your odds of success should be a bit better, particularly if you’re willing to be disciplined and bow out when you hit your limit for any given piece.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by raulus

I think the biggest flaw in your strategy is probably your venue. Expecting to get screaming deals on eBay (particularly for BIN stuff or high starting bids) is a bit optimistic, aside from an occasional lucky strike.

I suspect if you look to the average auction house, particularly for mid grade stuff that is readily available, you’ll find some prices that are more enticing. Some stuff will still go nuts. But your odds of success should be a bit better, particularly if you’re willing to be disciplined and bow out when you hit your limit for any given piece.

100% agree.

When a card is listed in an auction, the owner has already decided he is selling the card and will let the market determine the card's value. Once the card is consigned to the auction house, it will be sold and the owner has lost control over its ultimate disposition. Ebay is a store, where the proprietors are setting their prices and determining when and on what terms they will sell. Thus, many people listing cards listed on Ebay are not "sellers" unless they get what they want.

Maybe cards are selling for solid prices at auction houses, but at least the market is determining the value on items that will be sold once at least one bid is placed.

[bcbgcbrcb]

Is it easier to buy a card on eBay or via AH?

[raulus]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

Is it easier to buy a card on eBay or via AH?

I'm slightly paranoid that this is a joke, and you're not really asking. But at the risk of looking like a tool for stating a lot of obvious stuff, the answer probably depends on what you mean by "easy".

Also probably depends on how you weigh various elements.

eBay is often pretty quick. For BIN stuff, you can buy it on the spot, and often it gets shipped within a few days. If it's going through the authentication guarantee, then that can add a week (give or take) to your turnaround. Most eBay auctions last for 7-10 days, so it tends to be pretty quick. Also don't have to worry about a buyer's premium. The closing process for eBay auctions is also pretty easy - when the time comes, whoever has the highest bid wins. No extended bidding. At the same time, if you're dealing with a seller who's not well known, then there's always the possibility that they might play their own games, which is no fun. eBay also has the advantage that there's really no registration requirement. Anyone can sign up and bid. While there are some drawbacks there, for a buyer it makes the process a little easier. eBay also tends to have pretty small bid increments, which is nice.

eBay also tends to have pretty simple saved search features that make it easy to check if anything new has come online since the last time you checked. Although certainly some will tell you that those searches aren't perfect.

For most AHs, the process can take longer. Most sizeable auctions last for a few weeks (except for the smaller weeklies). Usually they have a registration requirement, which can take a few days or longer. They will want references, and some may even require that you submit documentation about your ability to pay. Some have an exciting closing process that can drag on for a while as long as people keep bidding, which can often last well into the night, particularly if you're on the east coast. Some AHs limit the forms of payment, as many don't accept credit cards, so that can add another layer of fun. And if you're paying by personal check, then it will add to the turnaround time to get your item. Most auction houses also have exciting minimum bid increments that can get pretty wide as an item rises in price, which not everyone loves, as you might be forced to increase your bid by $1k, when you really only wanted to go up by $500.

Most AHs also don't have a real easy way to save searches. So you're usually left to do manual online searches. And even then, sometimes exciting stuff doesn't get picked up and so I often find myself working through the entire online catalog just to be safe.

Ultimately, I buy from anywhere that will sell me stuff, and that has the stuff that I want, which is becoming harder to find these days. So personally, I'd focus less on ease of use, and focus more on finding the stuff that you want at a price that works for you. The rest is just details and process.

[bcbgcbrcb]

I am not looking to buy anything now. My point is that it’s a lot more of a hassle to buy specific cards from AH’s than eBay. When prices were sky high, you could find everything that you wanted on eBay so no need to go the AH route. Now that prices are way down, it’s a major struggle to find anything appealing on eBay and requires more resorting to the AH’s. That is my point.

[CardPadre]

Buy-it-nows for cards like those are rarely priced attractively or in line with recent auction results from what I observe. Have to go the auction route to find the right deal a lot of times...both on and off ebay. I follow the Wilt and Kareem RCs a bit and definitely see some softening, but gotta hunt them down and battle it out in the auction space.

[bcbgcbrcb]

All true. However, when prices were following Superman (up, up and away) there were all kinds of high eye appeal cards in every grade on eBay, sellers couldn’t make them available fast enough for the “going rate” and capitalize on the 100%, 500%, 1,000% increase over a couple of years earlier. I should know, it seems that I bought most of them, at least as many as I could afford.

[rjackson44]

Market is just fine

[Peter_Spaeth]

I'd like to see the people who are always opining on where the market is and where it's going actually keep track of their predictions and do it over a period of a few years so we can see just how right or wrong they were.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I'd like to see the people who are always opining on where the market is and where it's going actually keep track of their predictions and do it over a period of a few years so we can see just how right or wrong they were.

Sounds like we have a volunteer to keep score!

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I'd like to see the people who are always opining on where the market is and where it's going actually keep track of their predictions and do it over a period of a few years so we can see just how right or wrong they were.

Seems to me the same people are gloom and doom "the bottom is going to fall out tomorrow" are that way regardless of what's actually happening, and the same people who are "marketing is going to the moon, up up and away" are that way regardless of the facts. Maybe just how people are. Find the facts that support the ideas you already had. Sort of like . . . well a subject we are not supported to talk about here.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

If you are one of those who watch YouTube content regularly, you have surely heard just about every channel lately touting what a great time it is to buy sports cards with prices being so far below levels of a year or two ago. Well, today I did some exploring on eBay, searching for the GOAT vintage basketball cards that have come down the most over the past couple of years. As a buyer looking for good deals on ‘61 Fleer Wilts, Oscars, Jerrys and ‘69 Kareems, I came up empty handed. Beginning with the lowest PSA priced of each one of those cards, all I found was every single card with roughly 90/10 centering one way or the other or both with basically zero exhibiting what I would describe as superior eye appeal for the grade. I went up to around PSA 5 levels for each without being able to find a single example that I would be looking to jump on if I had the excess funds to make a purchase right now. As just a small sampling, I didn’t do any football, hockey or baseball but would expect to find similar results.

So, my conclusion is that no sellers or extremely few sellers are willing to part with their high eye appeal cards in this market and if they could possibly just hold on to all of them without selling, they absolutely will do that. Thus, where does that leave the astute buyer looking to take advantage of the down market as everyone is promoting? Take what you can get? This doesn’t seem like an ideal buying strategy to me.

Ebay sellers may be slow to react to market. Auction results show the market in real time. The cards you mentioned are definitely selling for less now.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

If you are one of those who watch YouTube content regularly, you have surely heard just about every channel lately touting what a great time it is to buy sports cards with prices being so far below levels of a year or two ago. Well, today I did some exploring on eBay, searching for the GOAT vintage basketball cards that have come down the most over the past couple of years. As a buyer looking for good deals on ‘61 Fleer Wilts, Oscars, Jerrys and ‘69 Kareems, I came up empty handed. Beginning with the lowest PSA priced of each one of those cards, all I found was every single card with roughly 90/10 centering one way or the other or both with basically zero exhibiting what I would describe as superior eye appeal for the grade. I went up to around PSA 5 levels for each without being able to find a single example that I would be looking to jump on if I had the excess funds to make a purchase right now. As just a small sampling, I didn’t do any football, hockey or baseball but would expect to find similar results.

So, my conclusion is that no sellers or extremely few sellers are willing to part with their high eye appeal cards in this market and if they could possibly just hold on to all of them without selling, they absolutely will do that. Thus, where does that leave the astute buyer looking to take advantage of the down market as everyone is promoting? Take what you can get? This doesn’t seem like an ideal buying strategy to me.

I think the cards you were looking for are an exception though. I consider myself an expert on 61 Fleer basketball. It's probably the set I know more about than any other set in any sport. It's a very special set. I am also a centering obsessed collector with clinically diagnosed obsessive-compulsive disorder. I'd wager good money that there isn't a single person on the planet who is more anal about their 61 Fleer set than I am. I upgrade every card in the set to a better-centered copy every chance I get. Pics of my set are below because YAY PICS!

Here are some fun facts:

1) I have never in my life encountered a truly 50/50 centered 1961 Fleer Jerry West RC. It just so happens to align on the sheet at the intersection of the most commonly miscut row and the 2nd most commonly miscut column. I have searched for years for one of these. I saw two that were close. I lost out on one and the other was overgraded and way overpriced (5x "comps"). Mine is centered L/R but off T/B.

2) A centered Wilt RC pops up maybe once every year or two. They're also super rare. A centered Elgin Baylor RC usually gets rejected by PSA. And I've only seen maybe 3 centered Oscar Robertson RCs ever. Mind you, I've searched this set weekly for years.

3) The entire set is hands down the most wildly miscut set that I'm aware of (perhaps there is some random obscure issue set that could be worse, but I doubt it). Finding any card in this set that is truly centered is like finding a needle in a haystack. Even in high grade. Nearly every 8, 9, and 10 I've seen is still too OC for me.

4) PSA graders have no clue how to grade these cards. They are CONSTANTLY rejected as "minsize" due to ignorance on PSA's part. The factory cuts on these are often narrow, and the factory heights vary by more than 3/4"!! Especially card numbers 1-6, which make up the rightmost column of the uncut sheet. Every single copy of cards 1-6 (which includes 4 HOF RCs: Elgin Baylor RC, Attles RC, Bellamy RC, and Arizin RC) measures narrow. EVERY SINGLE ONE. Every copy that has ever been slabbed by PSA, and every copy they reject. That's just how the sheets were cut. Cards from the rightmost column are narrower than every other card in the set. Getting one through grading at PSA is simply a matter of luck. Did the grader measure it that day or not? I have a centered Arizin that PSA refuses to grade despite the fact that it was in a PSA 7 holder when I bought it (it deserves an 8.5).

Cliff notes: I wouldn't use 1961 Fleer basketball as a proxy for the rest of the market. It has its own set of rules.


These are the cards in my set (a few have been upgraded since the pics were taken).

...

[Snowman]

It's probably also worth pointing out that the only cards I've seen sliding in price are cards with lower eye appeal. Dead-centered high-eye appeal cards that are difficult to find are still setting records nearly every time they hit an auction block.

As another recent example, I just won this 1963 Topps Mantle at auction on Sunday night. I had to pay $1600 to get it. "Comps" for a PSA 5 are ~$550. Set a new all-time high for the grade. You just can't find cards like this very often. There are plenty of 8s and 9s that surface, but almost none of them look as good as this one. Collectors who care about what their cards know this, and they are still willing to bid whatever it takes to get their cards.

.

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by Snowman

As another recent example, I just won this 1963 Topps Mantle at auction on Sunday night. I had to pay $1600 to get it. "Comps" for a PSA 5 are ~$550. Set a new all-time high for the grade. You just can't find cards like this very often.

Super nice Mantle, congrats. I have an SGC 5 that on paper would be comparable to that, but of course it's OC top to bottom. It also probably cost about 30% of what you paid...

[ghostmarcelle]

Not to derail this thread, but the OCD thing is very interesting to me. While I do consider myself to be OCD it's not about centering but rather image quality, registration in particular. The Musial is a great example and is a particular favorite of mine (I have both variations) - but both the beautifully centered cards shown here would absolutely drive me crazy. Here is one of mine:

[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by ghostmarcelle

Not to derail this thread, but the OCD thing is very interesting to me. While I do consider myself to be OCD it's not about centering but rather image quality, registration in particular. The Musial is a great example and is a particular favorite of mine (I have both variations) - but both the beautifully centered cards shown here would absolutely drive me crazy. Here is one of mine:

Bravo, you beat me to this exact post. I'd much rather have an OC card with close to perfect print, color, and image quality than I would have a 50/50 dead nuts centered card with those problems. To me the image is the most important thing about a card, and the fact that it's not even expressly cared for in a universal grading system that only looks at corners, surface, edges and centering is increasingly ludicrous in a hobby that is supposed to be about visual appeal.



Beautiful Musial, btw. Some of my wins in the same vein which got me gorgeous print and picture despite other flaws include a '57 Mays, a '63 Mantle, a less than fantastically centered '73 Schmidt RC (I traded a better centered one with print snow for it...) - and this '59 Mantle which sorry, the grade on the flip might not be noteworthy - but I would challenge you to find even some PSA 7's or 8's with print as clean as this one has. Even high grade copies often have something with print going on in the red background, or print messed up in some way in the stands behind his head. Extremely pleased w/ this one...

[Leon]

Those are phenominal. I am a centering nut too. I probably paid 1.5x - 2x comps for this Musial...and I love it. It's now in a CSG 1.5 holder, which I feel is the correct grade for it.

And of course I agree with the thought that great visual-appeal cards continue to do very well!

Originally Posted by Snowman

I think the cards you were looking for are an exception though. I consider myself an expert on 61 Fleer basketball. It's probably the set I know more about than any other set in any sport. It's a very special set. I am also a centering obsessed collector with clinically diagnosed obsessive-compulsive disorder. I'd wager good money that there isn't a single person on the planet who is more anal about their 61 Fleer set than I am. I upgrade every card in the set to a better-centered copy every chance I get. Pics of my set are below because YAY PICS!

Here are some fun facts:

1) I have never in my life encountered a truly 50/50 centered 1961 Fleer Jerry West RC. It just so happens to align on the sheet at the intersection of the most commonly miscut row and the 2nd most commonly miscut column. I have searched for years for one of these. I saw two that were close. I lost out on one and the other was overgraded and way overpriced (5x "comps"). Mine is centered L/R but off T/B.

2) A centered Wilt RC pops up maybe once every year or two. They're also super rare. A centered Elgin Baylor RC usually gets rejected by PSA. And I've only seen maybe 3 centered Oscar Robertson RCs ever. Mind you, I've searched this set weekly for years.

3) The entire set is hands down the most wildly miscut set that I'm aware of (perhaps there is some random obscure issue set that could be worse, but I doubt it). Finding any card in this set that is truly centered is like finding a needle in a haystack. Even in high grade. Nearly every 8, 9, and 10 I've seen is still too OC for me.

4) PSA graders have no clue how to grade these cards. They are CONSTANTLY rejected as "minsize" due to ignorance on PSA's part. The factory cuts on these are often narrow, and the factory heights vary by more than 3/4"!! Especially card numbers 1-6, which make up the rightmost column of the uncut sheet. Every single copy of cards 1-6 (which includes 4 HOF RCs: Elgin Baylor RC, Attles RC, Bellamy RC, and Arizin RC) measures narrow. EVERY SINGLE ONE. Every copy that has ever been slabbed by PSA, and every copy they reject. That's just how the sheets were cut. Cards from the rightmost column are narrower than every other card in the set. Getting one through grading at PSA is simply a matter of luck. Did the grader measure it that day or not? I have a centered Arizin that PSA refuses to grade despite the fact that it was in a PSA 7 holder when I bought it (it deserves an 8.5).

Cliff notes: I wouldn't use 1961 Fleer basketball as a proxy for the rest of the market. It has its own set of rules.


These are the cards in my set (a few have been upgraded since the pics were taken).

...

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Leon

Those are phenominal. I am a centering nut too. I probably paid 1.5x - 2x comps for this Musial...and I love it. It's now in a CSG 1.5 holder, which I feel is the correct grade for it.

And of course I agree with the thought that great visual-appeal cards continue to do very well!

I love cards like this. Low grade, nice centering. I did the exact same thing you did when I acquired my Musial. Bought one that has great eye appeal and a low technical grade due to a small pinhole on the top border. I think I paid about 1.75x comps or so. It was in an SGC 1.5 holder when I bought it.

..

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I think the cards you were looking for are an exception though. I consider myself an expert on 61 Fleer basketball. It's probably the set I know more about than any other set in any sport. It's a very special set. I am also a centering obsessed collector with clinically diagnosed obsessive-compulsive disorder. I'd wager good money that there isn't a single person on the planet who is more anal about their 61 Fleer set than I am. I upgrade every card in the set to a better-centered copy every chance I get. Pics of my set are below because YAY PICS!

Here are some fun facts:

1) I have never in my life encountered a truly 50/50 centered 1961 Fleer Jerry West RC. It just so happens to align on the sheet at the intersection of the most commonly miscut row and the 2nd most commonly miscut column. I have searched for years for one of these. I saw two that were close. I lost out on one and the other was overgraded and way overpriced (5x "comps"). Mine is centered L/R but off T/B.

2) A centered Wilt RC pops up maybe once every year or two. They're also super rare. A centered Elgin Baylor RC usually gets rejected by PSA. And I've only seen maybe 3 centered Oscar Robertson RCs ever. Mind you, I've searched this set weekly for years.

3) The entire set is hands down the most wildly miscut set that I'm aware of (perhaps there is some random obscure issue set that could be worse, but I doubt it). Finding any card in this set that is truly centered is like finding a needle in a haystack. Even in high grade. Nearly every 8, 9, and 10 I've seen is still too OC for me.

4) PSA graders have no clue how to grade these cards. They are CONSTANTLY rejected as "minsize" due to ignorance on PSA's part. The factory cuts on these are often narrow, and the factory heights vary by more than 3/4"!! Especially card numbers 1-6, which make up the rightmost column of the uncut sheet. Every single copy of cards 1-6 (which includes 4 HOF RCs: Elgin Baylor RC, Attles RC, Bellamy RC, and Arizin RC) measures narrow. EVERY SINGLE ONE. Every copy that has ever been slabbed by PSA, and every copy they reject. That's just how the sheets were cut. Cards from the rightmost column are narrower than every other card in the set. Getting one through grading at PSA is simply a matter of luck. Did the grader measure it that day or not? I have a centered Arizin that PSA refuses to grade despite the fact that it was in a PSA 7 holder when I bought it (it deserves an 8.5).

Cliff notes: I wouldn't use 1961 Fleer basketball as a proxy for the rest of the market. It has its own set of rules.


These are the cards in my set (a few have been upgraded since the pics were taken).

...

maybe not 50/50 but damn close

[Northviewcats]

As an eBay seller, I haven't noticed any decrease in sales in the last year. Sales have been pretty steady. I am not a big dealer, but I average between 60 to 80 sales per week. Almost all are vintage cards. I only sell buy-it-now and 60% of my sales are repeat buyers. I actually love the eBay platform. It is a safe and easy place to buy and sell cards.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

maybe not 50/50 but damn close

This is a really spectacular West RC. It might be the best one I've seen.

In my experience with this set, I suspect the only thing that probably held it back from an even higher grade is probably the tone of the white background. Some cards in this set get a more beige-ish look to them (which my West also has). It happens when they get soaked (warning, this set does not soak well!). It can also happen if they've been stored in a humid climate for a long time. Mine was the result of soaking it because I wanted to flatten it out. It's not a big difference, but it's noticeable when two cards are side-by-side.

[bmattioli]

Originally Posted by Snowman

I am also a centering obsessed collector with clinically diagnosed obsessive-compulsive disorder.

I would like to inquire about more information if you have the time to PM me any info on this misunderstood disease...

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by bmattioli

I would like to inquire about more information if you have the time to PM me any info on this misunderstood disease...

Sure, feel free to PM me. Happy to share my experiences with it. It manifests itself in all sorts of different ways in different people though.

A funny example for me is that when I was a teenager, I couldn't go to sleep without getting out of bed, walking over to the light switch, and flipping the lights on and off 3 times. Every night. For years. lol

[bcbgcbrcb]

If the ‘61 Fleer basketball cards are an anomaly, try to find a PSA 10 Fleer Jordan on eBay (spoiler alert, there aren’t any). There were plenty to be had in March of 2021 though.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

If the ‘61 Fleer basketball cards are an anomaly, try to find a PSA 10 Fleer Jordan on eBay (spoiler alert, there aren’t any). There were plenty to be had in March of 2021 though.

Certainly Not a supply issue