Follow up - Buying Vintage Cards – Buy Now or Buy In 12 Months

[parkplace33]

About 3 weeks ago, I made the following post about whether to buy cards now or wait a year:

https://www.net54baseball.com/showthread.php?t=341344

Interesting thoughts from Net54. I did want to follow up and say that I am going to wait 6-12 months to see where the market is at that time, unless something comes up I can't pass up. Heard from a lot of people and made this decision due to three reasons.

1. The amount of collectors/dealers/whoever trying to sell right now is the most I have seen in years. That makes me nervous at this moment.

2. World events. A lot going on right now and I want to see what happens.

3. Collector sentiment right now seems low in my opinion.

I may reassess in a few months, but want to see how things play out.

[Musashi]

Just curious, are you holding off because you're trying to time the market bottom? Because the reasons you are citing seem to be a good argument to hold off selling, but increase buying

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Musashi

Just curious, are you holding off because you're trying to time the market bottom? Because the reasons you are citing seem to be a good argument to hold off selling, but increase buying

Not time, but just get market value in relation to prices over the next few years. You can never time the market.

I see what you are saying as well. It may be a good time to buy for some, but not for me for what I am seeing.

[Johnny630]

I agree with op views...to me at this particular time if someone was to ask me what’s true market fair value of a any of the cards right now? Could it be coming back to pre Covid levels ? That I doubt but not on second tier or low grade cards. Would it be proper to this it’s 20-30% above pre Covid numbers but not near the highs of 21/22 ? I honestly have no idea none of us do. I don’t know what a fair price is right now. I’m closer to the 20-30% higher then pre Covid numbers which would be far more reasonable growth rate over the past couple years then what we have recently see.

For my theory above I tend to agree with the op, myself I’m waiting for the stabling in pricing..don’t know if that’s 12 months or not could be or could be sooner or longer ..either way I don’t know so I’m waiting and watching closely.

[Rhotchkiss]

I will repost what I said in that earlier thread, highlighting what I think best reflects my opinion on the matter:

Regarding the question of the thread, who the hell knows. As many have said, I think it depends on who you are buying, why you are buying, and how long you intend to keep what you are buying. Personally, for the first time in close to decade, this year I have sold more than I bought. But I have been strategic about what I have sold and bought- I have sold off mainly rare t206s and bought almost exclusively Ruth, Wagner, Cobb, Jackson, Young, Matty and things I need for my T3 and 1933 Goudey sets. I don’t know if my timing is good or bad- I will tell you in 2-4 years! However, I am pretty sure that if I can hold for 10-15 years, timing won’t matter- what you buy is more important then when you buy it if you can hold for a long time.

[anchorednw]

What you buy is more important then when you buy it if you can hold for a long time.

+1 This.

[Leon]

+1 spot on post.
With what I collect I need to buy something when I see it, or I might not see it for years, if ever again. And while I don't want to lose money, if I see something I really want, I will (in my mind) overpay for it. I can make money faster than seeing another of what I am buying. All of this in the context of my piggy bank, which only has pennys and nickels in it.
A '52 Mantle can be had anytime, in almost any shape, if you have the money.
But if you have a million dollars, you still can't buy one of these, unless it's for sale. (I realize it's not super valuable.)

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

I will repost what I said in that earlier thread, highlighting what I think best reflects my opinion on the matter:

Regarding the question of the thread, who the hell knows. As many have said, I think it depends on who you are buying, why you are buying, and how long you intend to keep what you are buying. Personally, for the first time in close to decade, this year I have sold more than I bought. But I have been strategic about what I have sold and bought- I have sold off mainly rare t206s and bought almost exclusively Ruth, Wagner, Cobb, Jackson, Young, Matty and things I need for my T3 and 1933 Goudey sets. I don’t know if my timing is good or bad- I will tell you in 2-4 years! However, I am pretty sure that if I can hold for 10-15 years, timing won’t matter- what you buy is more important then when you buy it if you can hold for a long time.