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#1
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"TRUE" population of a card
In a earlier thread I started we talked about what determines rarity, I myself developed a whole new insight and will stop using the term "rare" so much.
Now the next similar topic I would like to discuss is population of a card. Although there is no way to get an exact population of a card maybe there can be a formula used to estimate how many ungraded and graded are out there. What we all know is, is that SGC, BVG, and PSA do not show all their graded cards on their sites. They make mistakes and leave some out. For example I am the proud owner of a N172 portrait Comiskey Browns Champs. Between PSA and SGC they only show 3 copies ever graded. That is incorrect because I own a PSA AUTH Comiskey, and PSA shows zero for Auth grades. Also I discovered a PSA 6 move at one of the auction houses; however, PSA claims zero 6s. Another thing we know is that there are cards out there in private collections, ungraded, that have never been made public. My question is how many of those secret stashes could possibly be out there? You would think by now most of them would have been sold or somewhat made public, by grading or forum posts. Since the 1970s people have been tracking down cards and many many elderly owners have sold off or given away their collections. My theory is, is that there are not that many secret stashes out there compared to those that are both graded and also changing hands. So that can narrow it down, right? I don't know Ungraded populations can be tough to pin down. Someone would have to pull Terapeak at least annually and track every card that sold as raw. Then other auctions and online card shops would have to be tracked as well. The best part about those is there are sales records some where. Wouldn't it be great if there was a service or research group that would ask every dealer on the net to share sales records? If so alot of dealers probably would consider that too much work to dig those up. What I am getting at is, could there be a formula used to estimate the population of certain cards using PSA, SGC, BVG, and GAI population numbers. For example maybe say population is 30 between all four grading companies, then multiply it by 10 to get a rough estimate of the whole population. Then as far as those cards that are more popular that have a higher graded population, maybe divide it by 2 then multiply it by 10 or whatever. I am just making these formulas up as examples. There can also be different formulas for individual sets like T206 is multiplied by 6 and R319 is multiplied by 15. I hope I do not sound ridiculous, but it kills me wondering how many of my cards are really out there. I do not need an exact number just a closer estimate. I have a hard time digesting the fact that there are less than 10 N172 Comiskey's portrait. Or that there are only like 50,000 89 UD Griffey rookies. |
#2
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I think you also need to factor in two additional things: I, like many collectors, have purchased pre-war cards/pins in slabbed holders and have broken them out because as a set collector, some sets I have are in mylar pages, all together. I know my completed tobacco sets (T205, 206, 207, 212, etc.) are all raw in mylar pages; and second, some collectors in order to get higher or better grades will crack the cards out and either re-submit them raw or cross them over to another grading company. Thus the numbers are skewed and may be too high for some tobacco and caramel cards. I have tried to have all my caramel graded and in slabs and for uniformity sake, have craceked out a lot of PSA and GAI holders and had them submitted to SGC for uniformity sake, plus I like their holders better aesthetically.
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#3
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This topic interests me
Would it be possible to estimate the population of a given card based on the number of collectors who collect graded cards versus ungraded? Let's assume that we did a poll of collectors here on Net54 who collected graded versus raw. Lets say that out of 100 collectors polled--50 collected graded & 35 collected raw & 15 collected both. (I have no idea if this is a correct ratio, we would have to look at the poll, or perhaps do a couple of polls several months apart) Could we then extend the analysis to the combined population reports to get an approximate idea of how many total cards are out there?
As far as the concern about cards that were busted out of holders and not reported back to the population report. You could ask the raw collectors that were polled what percentage of their collection was once in a holder, but now is raw. Lets say that the combined population report of card A is 100 and the ratio above was confirmed by the poll then there would be 30 more ungraded examples floating around minus the percentage of the once graded cards that have been broken out of slabs. If that number is 5% your estimated population of card A might be: 100 -5 +30 = 125 cards. I teach English, not Math, and this is making my head hurt. Best regards, Joe |
#4
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Good luck guys...you can figure all of the equations/integrals/theories you want but we will never know exact figures for known examples of any given card...all we have are estimates.
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#5
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I would ask - why? What's the point of knowing if there are exactly 37 or 46 of a particular card in existence?
What is of interest to me is relative rarity e.g. that Tris Speaker's V100 is tougher then his M116 and I think pop reports, as they are, are instructive in that conversation because, as a general principal, all the noise mentioned above (resubmissions, mistakes, raw cards, etc.) should apply uniformly across all issues. I acknowledge there are cases where that logic doesn't work (e.g. comparing the pop of Andy Pafko's 1952 Topps to his 1954 Topps would be meaningless). |
#6
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The one "True" pop report I'd love to see is the 1924 Diaz Cigarettes...I know of one full set out there, and the rest of the cards are just pure blind luck on who exists more than others
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#7
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#8
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Zach - I like the though, am a son of CPA, but I think a little creative thinking would be in order here vs a true formula. I.e. a Cracker Jack Joe jacskon would have a MUCH higher percentage of cards graded vesus raw comparing to a common card. Compare that to say a 1934 goudey hank greenberg...more cards, smaller percent graded with probably more sitting in private collections, undisclosed as well. I would think some cards, like an e107, would have nearly 100% in slabs. Sooo many variables involved. Your formula would have to include these varibales...complicated at best. Good luck!
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#9
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