T205 Dolly Gray with stats

[nodgrass]

My putting together the T205 set is a relatively new undertaking. I was lucky enough to nab a Gray with stats on Ebay yesterday. I am trying to determine how difficult this card really is. The pop reports have a story to tell but can't replace observation over time. I would like to solicit the opinions of a few folks who have been at T205 for a while. In looking at the "numbers", it appears that Hoblitzell "no stats" and Moran "stray line of type" are the only cards that have less examples graded. This does not include the Mathewson "37-1" which, I believe, is a more recently discovered variation that has not had many examples graded designated as such. Any input would be appreciated.

[bbcard1]

One of the odder things I found going through my T205s to put together my beater set is a Dolly Gray w stats which i have apparently had for years with no special love for it. I didn't even know I had it. It is pretty beat, couldn't see it being anything but a 1. As I am only going to a set of fronts, I may part with it if i can parlay it into something more desirable, but it is interesting for now.

[barrysloate]

Dolly Gray with stats is much tougher than the no stats version. But it is not a terribly difficult card.

[nodgrass]

Barry, I asked for opinions from experienced collectors and you certainly are that. I highly value your opinion but to stimulate conversation I would like to point out the following: The average T205 card has been graded by PSA about 100-110 times. Some are as high as 140 (much higher for many HOF'ers due to value). Most of the tougher common's PSA POP are in the 70-80 range. The Hoblitzell no stats (33), the Moran stray line (35), and Dolly Gray stats (37) are the only cards under 40 examples graded. Most of the others cards recognized as very difficult have over 50, 60, and even over 70 examples graded.

Due to higher value, you would figure the HOF grading factor and resubmits would come into play with the very scarce cards much more so than the tough commons. The "HOF grading factor and resubmits" is best explained as: the more a card is worth, the more examples will be graded (and regraded). That being said, how can the very low POP of the Gray with stats be explained?

[barrysloate]

Marc- one of the things I'm not too knowledgeable about is pop reports. That in itself is a topic that has been greatly debated on the board. In brief, pop reports are not always trusted by all due to resubmissions which skew the numbers. Also, some cards are more likely to be submitted for grading than others.

So while I have a pretty good sense of which T205's are somewhat tougher and which are much tougher, I am unable to correlate these numbers with their respective pop numbers. Maybe some other posters have a better feel for them and can chime in.

[Wite3]

Marc,
I would not go by pop reports. T205s are broken out very often for crossover back and forth and for resubmits.

I have been tracking the t205s for over 15 years. Gray with stats is difficult but not as tough as Moran and nowhere near as tough as Hobby no stats. Gray with stats is about as tough as some of the tougher commons. I actually think Joss and the Wilhelms are tougher. Without my spreadsheet in front of me, I can't give you numbers but I seem to recall seeing more Gray with stats than those two.

Joshua

[nodgrass]

As I mentioned above, I tend to agree that POP reports have their drawbacks when using as a sole source to analyze the scarcity of a particular card. Especially now that they have become tainted with constant resubmissions. However, I feel it is a valuable tool or at the very least a starting point. When I collected T206's heavily and PSA first started posting the POP report, I used it as a valuable reference to put me ahead of the curve in identifying tough cards and commons. Most often it was right on and I benefited later when everybody else was paying big money for the same cards. When Joe Doyle NY became an expensive "common", I already had two PSA 4's and a PSA 5 w/ Sovereign back and paid less than $40 for all of them.

I will argue the skewed data from resubmissions point as it applies directly to this particular case. I would think this would affect the more expensive and scarce cards the most. However, the Dolly Gray with stats still has less than 40 examples graded. How can that be explained?

Lastly, to touch on the point of POP records being inaccurate. I would think the only substitute would be painstakingly watching and charting the sale of particular cards as they appear on the market over a long period of time. How would this be any more accurate? Reselling the same card, raw cards purchased and later graded, graded cards purchased and broken out, crossovers, resubmissions. How can any card be accurately tracked in this method?

I really don't mean to turn this into a POP report debate and I apologize for getting off-track. I really would like to hear about real world experiences and/or data.... theories as to why the Gray or other cards in T205 are rare or not rare.

Is the Gray with stats only available with certain backs? I don't have access to it at this moment to confirm my memory is correct, but I beleive in Lipset's encylcopedia he states that the Gray w/stats is only available in Sovereign back. The examples I have seen have a Piedmont back.