New and Shiny - Market Manipulation

[Fred]

I don't follow modern card sales but I do understand that there are lots of "1 of 1" cards and other shiny offerings that seem to drive the value of the cards up for all sports. Personally, I don't get the crazy pricing and valuations for these cards.

What happens if a player with lots of potential pans out to be a star but not a super star. Does that rookie card or "1 of 1" start to diminish in price?

For a while there was a Trout card that just seemed to go ballistic. Trout's turning a great player. A few more good years and he can cement himself in as an all time great. But what happens if he suffers a debilitating injury? Do his rookie cards and "1 of 1" cards start dropping in price. What is the shelf life for high prices on these cards?

Does anybody believe there is market manipulation going on in these modern cards? Again, I don't understand paying so much for something that is relatively new and a gimmick that is created by a card manufacturer.

When I think of the distribution of these limited cards, I start thinking about the McDonalds Monopoly disaster that just put a horrible light on how these things are distributed. Does anybody know how these cards are "randomly" distributed?

[bnorth]

My guess is it is no more or less manipulated than vintage.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by bnorth

My guess is it is no more or less manipulated than vintage.

agreed here, 100%

It's gambling by prospectors. If they do not pan out, then yes it goes down. Modern is somewhat like investing stocks in new companies, if they hit the return is generous and much more growth than vintage in percentage.

Vintage is blue chip stocks (for star players). They have more limited growth in comparison, but also more limited falls. This still doesn't mean they are not vastly manipulated to maintain those values. It has been proven over and over again.

[packs]

Modern is like a hot stock. Most of the time you have to cash in soon after release because there is a window where the player either starts off hot or fades and the prices crash. There are also only so many Trouts. If you wait five or six years you can usually pick up the first bowman’s for reasonable prices. Trea Turner is one guy who is absurdly cheap for the player he is.

[Eric72]

...I don't get the crazy pricing and valuations for these cards...

You're not alone.


...What happens if a player with lots of potential pans out to be a star but not a super star. Does that rookie card or "1 of 1" start to diminish in price?

Yes. Most of the time, the prices will drop regardless of player performance. Newer, shinier, "more extra super special-er" things will come out and capture the short attention span of modern collectors.


...Trout...what happens if he suffers a debilitating injury? Do his rookie cards and "1 of 1" cards start dropping...

Some people (not me) have been saying Trout's already washed up and won't make the Hall of Fame. Possibly because of this, his cards seemed to drop more than others in 2022.


...Does anybody believe there is market manipulation going on in these modern cards?

Yes. I believe it's rampant, especially on modern football and basketball cards. Lucky for us pre-war collectors, there are far fewer "influencers" hyping up (for example) T206 commons.


...Does anybody know how these cards are "randomly" distributed?

In theory, the card manufacturers do. Maybe some of the breakers and hard-core modern collectors, too.

[swarmee]

A lot of different strings to pull on this one.

1) For the most part, I don't believe there is a ton of market manipulation, just crazy irrational exuberance. Yes, it's very hard for any of these cards to retain their value over time. A lot of time it's just straight up gambling.
Take a look at this example:
https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1542293
Hundreds of different collectors paying hundreds or thousands to get a specific card lot in a break of 100 cases of Bowman Chrome Draft. 95% of those slots will be money losers, with people spending $86 to get $5 worth of cards on the open market in a couple of weeks. And this is completely honest and open, no market manipulation. There just is that much demand for modern prospect cards.

2) Some of the manufacturers seem to be tipping their hands by serial numbering certain boxes within cases and leading breakers to find ones that are "hot" or containing a rare hit. If the boxes in a case are numbered 6,888, 6,889, 6,890, 6,891, 6,892, and 3,503, it's easy to spot the odd man out and determine there's probably something valuable in 3503.

3) Cards like the Kris Bryant 1/1 Superfractor Auto from 2013 Bowman Chrome, which went for $50K or so at its peak, is probably worth $10K or so right now, and Bryant has actually had a pretty good career.
Take a look at this thread if you want to ride a wave of emotions:
https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=860461

[Johnny630]

It’s not just modern that’s been manipulated...

[BobbyVCP]

There are lots of fake sales that they use to try and set a crazy value...These do not sell and they do not bother getting a refund for eBay fees. Then usually a day after they relist again using the exact same image...

We are in the process of showing these off at VCP so you can learn these sellers tactics and bid accordingly....

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by BobbyVCP

There are lots of fake sales that they use to try and set a crazy value...These do not sell and they do not bother getting a refund for eBay fees. Then usually a day after they relist again using the exact same image...

We are in the process of showing these off at VCP so you can learn these sellers tactics and bid accordingly....

Bobby, what sorts of cards are you seeing this on?

[BobC]

Originally Posted by BobbyVCP

There are lots of fake sales that they use to try and set a crazy value...These do not sell and they do not bother getting a refund for eBay fees. Then usually a day after they relist again using the exact same image...

We are in the process of showing these off at VCP so you can learn these sellers tactics and bid accordingly....

Good for you Bobby. I hope you are at least somewhat successful in ferreting out those occasions where this type of manipulation is being done, and can correct/adjust VCP records accordingly. Can't be easy though.

I remember just this past year coming across an obvious manipulation scheme where over the course of a month or so, people kept putting up 2002 Topps 206 Honus Wagner game used bat cards on Ebay. They rarely came up at all, and then suddenly there are 5 or 6 up for sale and selling over the course of a month or so, for prices from about $2K to $6K. A lot of the people, sellers and bidders, in these auctions were the same players. Even though Ebay hides the buyer's names/IDs, it is pretty easy to tell they are the same people by looking at the positive feedback counts given for each bidder/buyer. The one thing that stuck out to me was how when I kept looking back at the various sellers, none of them ever got any positive feedback for selling even one of these Wagner relic cards. Not a one!

The sales of these dropped off the map since then, with what looks like only one recent, legitimate sale of one of these Wagner relic cards via Ebay auction for $898.88 back on 10/26/2022. And in checking the seller's feedback, they did get a positive feedback report and listing from the buyer subsequent to the sale of that card, to help prove the sale's legitimacy. That $898.88 price is a whole lot different, and much more realistic, than the $2K - $6K prices a small batch of the exact same card was supposedly selling for just several months earlier. And usually there is at least one of these 2002 Topps 206 Wagner relic cards you can always find listed on Ebay for sale, but typically at a BIN in at least the $3K-$4K range. That prior year mini surge in sales of these Wagner relic cards on Ebay sure looked to be exactly the kind of market manipulation being discussed. I'm assuming that Ebay sales like those get picked up and then posted on some sites/platforms, like VCP, which others then use to determine current market value, correct? In this recent past case/instance though, it looks like the market manipulation ploy didn't work and others didn't suddenly start overpaying for that particular Wagner relic card.

I myself do not use or follow any of these market research tools, so am not 100% sure how they exactly work and specifically what information and sources they do draw their input from to use. Based on my own experience and what I've seen though, you kind of have to take everything you see nowadays from any outside sources with at least a small grain of salt, and use a lot of your own common sense and experience in deciding what a certain card/item is worth to you, and therefore what you're willing to pay/bid for it.

I've never heard anything but great statements and feedback regarding Bobby's VCP site, even though I don't use it myself. Anything you can do to help police this kind of market manipulation crap would be a huge boon to people in the hobby. Good luck and best wishes to you in your efforts going forward.

[Tabe]

A few thoughts:

1) Mike Trout is already a HOFer and all-time great. 40 homers last year and people saw it as an off-year.

2} there's absolutely market manipulation going on. Does anybody still think those twin $750k Fleer Jordan sales were fully legit?

[BobbyVCP]

Originally Posted by BobC

Good for you Bobby. I hope you are at least somewhat successful in ferreting out those occasions where this type of manipulation is being done, and can correct/adjust VCP records accordingly. Can't be easy though.

I remember just this past year coming across an obvious manipulation scheme where over the course of a month or so, people kept putting up 2002 Topps 206 Honus Wagner game used bat cards on Ebay. They rarely came up at all, and then suddenly there are 5 or 6 up for sale and selling over the course of a month or so, for prices from about $2K to $6K. A lot of the people, sellers and bidders, in these auctions were the same players. Even though Ebay hides the buyer's names/IDs, it is pretty easy to tell they are the same people by looking at the positive feedback counts given for each bidder/buyer. The one thing that stuck out to me was how when I kept looking back at the various sellers, none of them ever got any positive feedback for selling even one of these Wagner relic cards. Not a one!

The sales of these dropped off the map since then, with what looks like only one recent, legitimate sale of one of these Wagner relic cards via Ebay auction for $898.88 back on 10/26/2022. And in checking the seller's feedback, they did get a positive feedback report and listing from the buyer subsequent to the sale of that card, to help prove the sale's legitimacy. That $898.88 price is a whole lot different, and much more realistic, than the $2K - $6K prices a small batch of the exact same card was supposedly selling for just several months earlier. And usually there is at least one of these 2002 Topps 206 Wagner relic cards you can always find listed on Ebay for sale, but typically at a BIN in at least the $3K-$4K range. That prior year mini surge in sales of these Wagner relic cards on Ebay sure looked to be exactly the kind of market manipulation being discussed. I'm assuming that Ebay sales like those get picked up and then posted on some sites/platforms, like VCP, which others then use to determine current market value, correct? In this recent past case/instance though, it looks like the market manipulation ploy didn't work and others didn't suddenly start overpaying for that particular Wagner relic card.

I myself do not use or follow any of these market research tools, so am not 100% sure how they exactly work and specifically what information and sources they do draw their input from to use. Based on my own experience and what I've seen though, you kind of have to take everything you see nowadays from any outside sources with at least a small grain of salt, and use a lot of your own common sense and experience in deciding what a certain card/item is worth to you, and therefore what you're willing to pay/bid for it.

I've never heard anything but great statements and feedback regarding Bobby's VCP site, even though I don't use it myself. Anything you can do to help police this kind of market manipulation crap would be a huge boon to people in the hobby. Good luck and best wishes to you in your efforts going forward.

We are in the process of building out something using AI to spot the Re-Listers\Shillers, etc....95% of the time they are using the same image and relisting the item within 10 days or less...once built it will take each days new listing and see if that seller sold the same card in 14 days or less. If there is a match then it will check the 2 images and if the same the first sale will be highlighted in yellow and tagged.

[BobbyVCP]

Originally Posted by BobC

Good for you Bobby. I hope you are at least somewhat successful in ferreting out those occasions where this type of manipulation is being done, and can correct/adjust VCP records accordingly. Can't be easy though.

I remember just this past year coming across an obvious manipulation scheme where over the course of a month or so, people kept putting up 2002 Topps 206 Honus Wagner game used bat cards on Ebay. They rarely came up at all, and then suddenly there are 5 or 6 up for sale and selling over the course of a month or so, for prices from about $2K to $6K. A lot of the people, sellers and bidders, in these auctions were the same players. Even though Ebay hides the buyer's names/IDs, it is pretty easy to tell they are the same people by looking at the positive feedback counts given for each bidder/buyer. The one thing that stuck out to me was how when I kept looking back at the various sellers, none of them ever got any positive feedback for selling even one of these Wagner relic cards. Not a one!

The sales of these dropped off the map since then, with what looks like only one recent, legitimate sale of one of these Wagner relic cards via Ebay auction for $898.88 back on 10/26/2022. And in checking the seller's feedback, they did get a positive feedback report and listing from the buyer subsequent to the sale of that card, to help prove the sale's legitimacy. That $898.88 price is a whole lot different, and much more realistic, than the $2K - $6K prices a small batch of the exact same card was supposedly selling for just several months earlier. And usually there is at least one of these 2002 Topps 206 Wagner relic cards you can always find listed on Ebay for sale, but typically at a BIN in at least the $3K-$4K range. That prior year mini surge in sales of these Wagner relic cards on Ebay sure looked to be exactly the kind of market manipulation being discussed. I'm assuming that Ebay sales like those get picked up and then posted on some sites/platforms, like VCP, which others then use to determine current market value, correct? In this recent past case/instance though, it looks like the market manipulation ploy didn't work and others didn't suddenly start overpaying for that particular Wagner relic card.

I myself do not use or follow any of these market research tools, so am not 100% sure how they exactly work and specifically what information and sources they do draw their input from to use. Based on my own experience and what I've seen though, you kind of have to take everything you see nowadays from any outside sources with at least a small grain of salt, and use a lot of your own common sense and experience in deciding what a certain card/item is worth to you, and therefore what you're willing to pay/bid for it.

I've never heard anything but great statements and feedback regarding Bobby's VCP site, even though I don't use it myself. Anything you can do to help police this kind of market manipulation crap would be a huge boon to people in the hobby. Good luck and best wishes to you in your efforts going forward.

We are in the process of building out something using AI to spot the Re-Listers\Shillers, etc....95% of the time they are using the same image and relisting the item within 10 days or less...once built it will take each days new listing and see if that seller sold the same card in 14 days or less. If there is a match then it will check the 2 images and if the same the first sale will be highlighted in yellow and tagged.

[todeen]

While the game has changed a little, it doesn't seem to be any different than what I grew up with in the 90s. In the 90s, the new hot items were inserts. Donruss Elite. UD Piece of History 500 HR Club relics. Autos. Some of these were stupid expensive then. I remember reading Beckett as a 12 yo in 1998/1999 looking at top sale prices and believing I'd never see one of those cards let alone have the money to purchase one. Have you seen 90s relic card prices today? They have tumbled from their heyday.

In 1996, Topps did the Mickey Mantle inserts. I bought and bought and bought packs, hand collated the set. But I never pulled a Mantle card. It was stupid.

I also remember trying to obtain a 1989 Upper Deck Griffey RC. I could afford one, but I always wanted to pull one. For as many packs as I bought I should have hit one. But I never did. His RC climbed in value and got to about $150. Then it plummeted to $50 when he started getting injured.

These experiences led me to stop buying modern. The mystique of collecting kind of wore off too.

Prices for packs and boxes have increased due to inflation and demand. But nothing has changed in the modern game. Today there are just different sellers, and different avenues of selling, but the odds remain long of pulling special cards. And just like in the 90s, when you got an insert it often was of a player you didn't care to obtain.

Sent from my SM-G9900 using Tapatalk

[rjackson44]

The loses on the new stuff is scary. Never understood folks buying cards for 100 k and then selling them for 30 k ,just insane

[Exhibitman]

Other than as gambling, modern has never made much sense to me. is there market manipulation? Of course there is. Hyping Keston Hiura cards is the essence of manipulation. Generational talents like Jeter and Trout are generational talents.

If you want to gamble on modern, the only thing that makes any sense at all is to put away unopened and wait to see what happens.

[JustinD]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

If you want to gamble on modern, the only thing that makes any sense at all is to put away unopened and wait to see what happens.

This is not bad advice at all, there's a ton of people that should live by this that throw away money by the boatload.

[Section103]

As far as distribution goes, I will relay a story I know of first hand and experienced with my own eyes and people I know in real life.

I forget the year exactly, but I was working the National card show in Chicago around 2008-2010. You are all familiar with the timing of that show. The person I was working with managed to have 6 out of a limited football rookie card numbered to 10. In August. Before this future Hall of Fame player had played a single down.

This certainly doesnt indicate all companies do this in all cases. But I can tell you with no uncertainty that is not always perfectly random.

[packs]

Are you saying you think specific cards from a product were pulled from packs and sent to one specific person prior to release? That would be pretty difficult for a large scale producer like Topps or Panini to make happen.

What type of place in the hobby would this person occupy that would make a huge company alter production to get a few specific cards to them? And why would they be interested in doing that?

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by packs

Are you saying you think specific cards from a product were pulled from packs and sent to one specific person prior to release? That would be pretty difficult for a large scale producer like Topps or Panini to make happen.

What type of place in the hobby would this person occupy that would make a huge company alter production to get a few specific cards to them? And why would they be interested in doing that?

Large dealers get special treatment just like in pretty much every business. I have no personal experience with Topps or Panini but I can guarantee Score done it. It is also no big secret Topps has done it for decades, I just have no personal experience with it.

In my experience it was not done before release and it takes very little effort. They just have one person stand there and pull certain cards.

[darwinbulldog]

Originally Posted by Fred

I don't follow modern card sales but I do understand that there are lots of "1 of 1" cards and other shiny offerings that seem to drive the value of the cards up for all sports. Personally, I don't get the crazy pricing and valuations for these cards.

What happens if a player with lots of potential pans out to be a star but not a super star. Does that rookie card or "1 of 1" start to diminish in price?

For a while there was a Trout card that just seemed to go ballistic. Trout's turning a great player. A few more good years and he can cement himself in as an all time great. But what happens if he suffers a debilitating injury? Do his rookie cards and "1 of 1" cards start dropping in price. What is the shelf life for high prices on these cards?

Does anybody believe there is market manipulation going on in these modern cards? Again, I don't understand paying so much for something that is relatively new and a gimmick that is created by a card manufacturer.

When I think of the distribution of these limited cards, I start thinking about the McDonalds Monopoly disaster that just put a horrible light on how these things are distributed. Does anybody know how these cards are "randomly" distributed?

I'd say Trout's the same as anybody else. If you correct for the overall rise or fall of the market, the prices of his cards will go up to the extent that he does better than expected and down to the extent that he does worse than expected. If he bats .300 and hits 20 HRs and finishes the 2023 season with a WAR of 3.8 his cards will underperform the market. If he wins another MVP, his cards will outperform the market. That's true for his 1-of-1 cards as well as his base cards and everything in between.

He's already got a better than even chance of being a first-ballot Hall of Famer, so that's already baked into the current prices, but in theory he could still end up having an even better career than current projections would suggest. If he does better for the remainder of his career than he has done so far, he could end up widely seen as the best player since Babe Ruth, in which case buying his cards right now would have been a good move. But that's very unlikely for a player who hasn't appeared in over 140 games in a season since 2016.