Collecting Boxes & Packs - the Future?

[gonefishin]

I know there are those out there that collect unopened packs and boxes. Just wondering your thoughts regarding the future of unopened packs and boxes. Is this the new wave of collecting? I've noticed the selling prices for unopened items skyrocket over the last few years.

By the way, I'm referring to modern era boxes and packs, let's say from 1980 to current.

[packs]

Modern unopened is a big money market but it can only last as long as the chase players continue to make it worth chasing the product.

But even then, it's not hard to see the bottom falling out. For example, some of Soto's big rookie autos were redemptions. They have since expired.

When you look at pretty much every other player not named Mike Trout, their sky high prospect values have plummeted. You can buy Bowman first auto rookies of guys like Verlander / Kershaw / Goldschmidt / Mauer etc. for pretty cheap. I mean, there's an SGC 10 / 9 of Goldschmidt on eBay right now for $450. Sounds like a lot, but not when guys who are in A ball now command over a grand.

In the end, I would choose not to invest in modern unopened because it'll always be at its highest value a few years out from when it was released. And then decline over time after unless there's a Tom Brady / Mike Trout level talent that year.

[gonefishin]

Originally Posted by packs

Modern unopened is a big money market but it can only last as long as the chase players continue to make it worth chasing the product.

But even then, it's not hard to see the bottom falling out. For example, some of Soto's big rookie autos were redemptions. They have since expired.

When you look at pretty much every other player not named Mike Trout, their sky high prospect values have plummeted. You can buy Bowman first auto rookies of guys like Verlander / Kershaw / Goldschmidt / Mauer etc. for pretty cheap. I mean, there's an SGC 10 / 9 of Goldschmidt on eBay right now for $450. Sounds like a lot, but not when guys who are in A ball now command over a grand.

In the end, I would choose not to invest in modern unopened because it'll always be at its highest value a few years out from when it was released. And then decline over time after unless there's a Tom Brady / Mike Trout level talent that year.

Great observation and insight. What are your thoughts about early 90s boxes and packs - especially football and basketball?

[jasondeanmartin]

I'll give my thoughts but will give some insight into my unopened collection first. My collection is significant, maybe not in value but definitely in quantity. I started around 2014/15 and basically try to get one of everything possible (mostly retail or lower end hobby). But, when you do this for multiple sports, the number of packs adds up quickly. I easily have 1,000+ unopened packs from what feels like everything under the sun.

Now, my opinion on this.

Since the price increases from Panini, Topps, etc at the retail level, my collecting has tapered off. When it was $20 a blaster I could easily justify the price because I was getting 4-10 packs per blaster for that $20. However, now that many Panini blasters are $35, I cant justify that price. While, I'm not a hit seeker, I still like to somewhat get my money's worth in some shape or form. But, when you increase the price of a box by 75%, it's that much harder to get your money's worth.

I also collect toys and wrestling figures. Many of those figures were roughly $20 pre-pandemic but have now since raised to $22-24. That I can justify and it doesn't hurt the wallet as much. So, more of my money has been put in that direction.

Unopened wax will always be a thing. I just think the pandemic-era stuff has nowhere to go but down. Retailers are not selling boxes like they once were and I'm even seeing lower prices at card shows. We had the boom. Next is the bust and it's just a matter of time.

[isiahfan]

I sold all of my unopened boxes this last year....mostly baseball 1980-2020...and got stupid money for them all. I wouldn't change a thing. Even sold a bowman 2000 football for like $4K+...why? people want graded cards...or investmenst? Makes very little sense to me. Take 1980 Topps...really only the Henderson is of any value in that set and you can easily get an ungraded one that looks like an "8" or so...for BV...and the odds of getting one in a wax box are what???...80%ish...so why do the boxes go for $3500-5000?.....buy 20 NrMy sets for that

Same with the 82 set....

maybe with vingtage the graded return on stuff makes more sense...but 80 and newer ....can't reconcile it...

Or even worse.....$180 for a pack....not to rag on thers...but complete waste of money IMO

[jasondeanmartin]

You're right. I see buying newer boxes for chance at parallels. But, buying the older stuff.....BUY THE CARD YOU WANT AND SKIP THE BOX.

Originally Posted by isiahfan

I sold all of my unopened boxes this last year....mostly baseball 1980-2020...and got stupid money for them all. I wouldn't change a thing. Even sold a bowman 2000 football for like $4K+...why? people want graded cards...or investmenst? Makes very little sense to me. Take 1980 Topps...really only the Henderson is of any value in that set and you can easily get an ungraded one that looks like an "8" or so...for BV...and the odds of getting one in a wax box are what???...80%ish...so why do the boxes go for $3500-5000?.....buy 20 NrMy sets for that

Same with the 82 set....

maybe with vingtage the graded return on stuff makes more sense...but 80 and newer ....can reconcile it...

Or even worse.....$180 for a pack....not to rag on thers...but complete waste of money IMO

[hockeyhockey]

Originally Posted by isiahfan

I sold all of my unopened boxes this last year....mostly baseball 1980-2020...and got stupid money for them all. I wouldn't change a thing. Even sold a bowman 2000 football for like $4K+...why? people want graded cards...or investmenst? Makes very little sense to me. Take 1980 Topps...really only the Henderson is of any value in that set and you can easily get an ungraded one that looks like an "8" or so...for BV...and the odds of getting one in a wax box are what???...80%ish...so why do the boxes go for $3500-5000?.....buy 20 NrMy sets for that

Same with the 82 set....

maybe with vingtage the graded return on stuff makes more sense...but 80 and newer ....can't reconcile it...

Or even worse.....$180 for a pack....not to rag on thers...but complete waste of money IMO

hard to argue with any of this. when gettiing back into collecting a few years ago, i made a few mistakes on purchases. fortunately most of those mistakes were minor, and when the boom happened, pretty much evened out or profited on them.

the one i'd do over is buying a 1986 OPC hockey unopened box to try and treasure hunt for a patrick roy rookie. while it was fun, it was very costly. did end up selling off half the packs along with the actual box and some freebies i got. also graded a few cards and did well on them. but still lost a few hundred bucks. definitely a good lesson.