The future of Mike Trout

[Peter_Spaeth]

He's been OK this year so far but not his usual spectacular self. Are we seeing the next Albert Pujols -- an absolutely unreal first ten years followed by another ten years at a much reduced level -- or will he turn it around and stay among MLBs handful of best players for at least a few more years?

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He's been OK this year so far but not his usual spectacular self. Are we seeing the next Albert Pujols -- an absolutely unreal first ten years followed by another ten years at a much reduced level -- or will he turn it around and stay among MLBs handful of best players for at least a few more years?

We're never again seeing the version of him from 7-10 years ago, but I think he will produce better than Pujols down the stretch of his career.

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

We're never again seeing the version of him from 7-10 years ago, but I think he will produce better than Pujols down the stretch of his career.

Agreed. Guy played like a first ballot hall of famer and more for the first half of his career and will play like a really good player for his second half. Not a bad gig if you can get one.

[packs]

I think he has another MVP in him. I guess it can be said this season is his "worst" season statistically but he's still pretty good with his 132 OPS+. I think he snaps out of it too and ends the season hitting closer to 280 than 250.

[mrreality68]

Great player and I think he will keep producing but not at his Prime Levels but his years will still be better than most players

The Key is health. As long as he stays healthy he will keep producing

Just a shame his first year in the playoffs is this year(if they make it as they are playing well but on the bubble)
Would love to have seen him in the playoff in years past.

[Seven]

He's talked this year about the fact that he knows he's not performing like his usual self, and he thinks it's a mechanical issue. It's funny because a "down" year for Trout, is better than most of baseball produces at their best. I'll reserve judgment until the season is over, on his overall performance.

I'm not concerned with his future, I think if he put together two to three years in a row of this, then that would be a cause for concern. However we've seen with plenty of players them having an off year, only to storm back and put up numbers like they normally do. One recent example of this that I can think of is Goldschmidt.

I don't think he has much time left in Centerfield. Maybe a move to a corner outfield spot is in order, or eventually first base. I'd say to DH him more, but Ohtani currently occupies that spot, and that won't change unless the Angels lose him in free agency.

EDIT:

Looking at his numbers, assuming he has his health for the rest of his contract, he could join the elite group of 3000 hits and 500 Homers. Perhaps even more home runs, if he's able to keep his power performance up.

[maniac_73]

Should probably give it another year before making a judgment call. A lot of the greats have had down years and bounced back.


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[G1911]

I doubt he has a Pujols trajectory. Pujols was below leave average bat for half of his Angels stint; a truly worthless player considering he was a 1B/DH below league average. The second half of his career would have been half as long if he wasn't named Albert Pujols and was treated based on performance. Unlike Pujols, Trout remembers the age he claims to be and even in this bad season is 32% over league average bat while not being a 1B/DH.

Almost nobody is likely to be as good in their age 31-40 seasons as they were in their 21-30 seasons in physical male prime. That's not a Pujols trajectory, it's normal.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

I doubt he has a Pujols trajectory. Pujols was below leave average bat for half of his Angels stint; a truly worthless player considering he was a 1B/DH below league average. The second half of his career would have been half as long if he wasn't named Albert Pujols and was treated based on performance. Unlike Pujols, Trout remembers the age he claims to be and even in this bad season is 32% over league average bat while not being a 1B/DH.

Almost nobody is likely to be as good in their age 31-40 seasons as they were in their 21-30 seasons in physical male prime. That's not a Pujols trajectory, it's normal.

As has been discussed, Pujols' counting stats were enhanced because he hit behind Trout who kept racking up absurd on base percentages. And I would push back the expected age of decline to 35 or so, I think countless non users have still been in their primes in their early 30s.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

As has been discussed, Pujols' counting stats were enhanced because he hit behind Trout who kept racking up absurd on base percentages. And I would push back the expected age of decline to 35 or so, I think countless non users have still been in their primes in their early 30s.

Well yes. My Division comes from the stipulations of the OP, two halves of a career. If we are talking about 2 halves of a career ones early 30’s are not a half. If you’d like to cut a career into fourths or eighths instead then obviously things will look different. That, if you are cutting in half, the half constituting ones 20’s is likely to be better than the half constituting ones 30’s is difficult to debate.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

Well yes. My Division comes from the stipulations of the OP, two halves of a career. If we are talking about 2 halves of a career ones early 30’s are not a half. If you’d like to cut a career into fourths or eighths instead then obviously things will look different. That, if you are cutting in half, the half constituting ones 20’s is likely to be better than the half constituting ones 30’s is difficult to debate.

Pujols, though, dropped off dramatically once he hit the second half, and at least so far it seems Trout is doing the same. So my question really was is the same thing going to happen to Trout? Granted, normal careers involve a more gradual tapering.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by G1911

I doubt he has a Pujols trajectory. Pujols was below leave average bat for half of his Angels stint; a truly worthless player considering he was a 1B/DH below league average. The second half of his career would have been half as long if he wasn't named Albert Pujols and was treated based on performance. Unlike Pujols, Trout remembers the age he claims to be and even in this bad season is 32% over league average bat while not being a 1B/DH.

Almost nobody is likely to be as good in their age 31-40 seasons as they were in their 21-30 seasons in physical male prime. That's not a Pujols trajectory, it's normal.

At the same age Albert Pujols was 48% above league average and the next season he was 38% above league average. So right now Trout is below Pujols levels and is now injured again. After that, Pujols had 4 more decent seasons before falling off badly So let's see what Trout does the next 6 years in comparison to Pujols before saying no. And the way he keeps getting injured, Trout may never come close to Pujols counting numbers or longevity. Below league average is still better than out of the league.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by rats60

At the same age Albert Pujols was 48% above league average and the next season he was 38% above league average. So right now Trout is below Pujols levels and is now injured again. After that, Pujols had 4 more decent seasons before falling off badly So let's see what Trout does the next 6 years in comparison to Pujols before saying no. And the way he keeps getting injured, Trout may never come close to Pujols counting numbers or longevity. Below league average is still better than out of the league.

Well obviously if we wait to see what actually happens, that will be more accurate than guessing. No shit. That is true everywhere in every scenario all of the time. We know this. It’s a prediction thread.

The odds that Trout performs as badly as Pujols did in his second half is low. Pujols is a historically huge decline outside the normal decreasing route. Could it happen? Sure. Is it likely? No.

A well below league bat and playing DH is not better than out of the league. That’s negative value to the team, not positive. He wasn’t a net negative from 2013-2016, just pretty bad. From 2017-2021 he was a negative actively hurting his team.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

Well obviously if we wait to see what actually happens, that will be more accurate than guessing. No shit. That is true everywhere in every scenario all of the time. We know this. It’s a prediction thread.

The odds that Trout performs as badly as Pujols did in his second half is low. Pujols is a historically huge decline outside the normal decreasing route. Could it happen? Sure. Is it likely? No.

A well below league bat and playing DH is not better than out of the league. That’s negative value to the team, not positive. He wasn’t a net negative from 2013-2016, just pretty bad. From 2017-2021 he was a negative actively hurting his team.

The only thing more astonishing to me than how bad Pujols really was for those 5 years was how good he suddenly became again in 2022 especially towards the end when he needed some completely improbable productivity to reach certain milestones and somehow delivered. I will never be convinced he wasn't getting some grooved pitches in there.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by rats60

At the same age Albert Pujols was 48% above league average and the next season he was 38% above league average. So right now Trout is below Pujols levels and is now injured again. After that, Pujols had 4 more decent seasons before falling off badly So let's see what Trout does the next 6 years in comparison to Pujols before saying no. And the way he keeps getting injured, Trout may never come close to Pujols counting numbers or longevity. Below league average is still better than out of the league.

LOL, Trout has ZERO chance of getting even close to Pujols counting numbers.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by bnorth

LOL, Trout has ZERO chance of getting even close to Pujols counting numbers.

You are correct sir. Let us not forget Trout only played in 114 games in 2017, 134 games in 2019, 36 games in 2021, and 119 games in 2022. Not to mention 2020 though he was healthy. Those are huge swaths of games and likely stats already missed. He was well off the pace even before this latest.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by bnorth

LOL, Trout has ZERO chance of getting even close to Pujols counting numbers.

It depends on what counting stats you are referring too. WAR Trout 85.3 Pujols 101.5 Walks Trout 964 Pujols 1373. The only things that matter to the modern player are walks, HR and WAR and Trout does have a chance to pass Pujols in two of the three.

I think you missed the memo that winning games no longer matters, theoretical wins is all that we care about now, it's called WAR. It is more important that Trout is worth more than 9 theoretical wins per 162 games than the fact that the Angels only win 2 more real games per 162 with Trout in the lineup than with him out.

[Swadewade51]

He'll come back hit 9 hr in 9 games and the Angel's will go 0-9

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[Peter_Spaeth]

Fracture. 3-7 weeks is being reported.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Fracture. 3-7 weeks is being reported.

More details but expected to be out passed the trade deadline

Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout suffered a fracture of the hamate bone in his left hand during Monday's game against the San Diego Padres (SD 10, LA 3), the Angels announced. Trout suffered the injury when he fouled back an 0-1 pitch from Nick Martinez in the seventh inning. Hamate fractures typically require surgery and come with a 3-7 week recovery.

[chaddurbin]

Ok now that we've established that Mike Trout is a fraud and not the best player in baseball for the past 10 years, in the same vein can we work on how Sandy Koufax is more like Goose Gossage and had half the careers of Bert Blyleven and Don Sutton?

#mikescott4life

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[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by chaddurbin

Ok now that we've established that Mike Trout is a fraud and not the best player in baseball for the past 10 years, in the same vein can we work on how Sandy Koufax is more like Goose Gossage and had half the careers of Bert Blyleven and Don Sutton?

#mikescott4life

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For me Mike Trout is the Real Deal and is a first Ballot Hall of Famer but to me his inability to stay healthy and on the field is preventing me to escalate him to the upper echelon of the Hall of Fame Greats. Plus to me without the playoffs and without the World Series games and victories that is also a factor.
And yes many greats have no World Series Victories but the True Greats of the Game that are elevated above the other greats seem to have that.
Especially last 40 plus years its all about the Rings. Sad but True

[Seven]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

For me Mike Trout is the Real Deal and is a first Ballot Hall of Famer but to me his inability to stay healthy and on the field is preventing me to escalate him to the upper echelon of the Hall of Fame Greats. Plus to me without the playoffs and without the World Series games and victories that is also a factor.
And yes many greats have no World Series Victories but the True Greats of the Game that are elevated above the other greats seem to have that.
Especially last 40 plus years its all about the Rings. Sad but True

The rings argument is the one that always blows my mind. Baseball is such a team driven sport, Trout could have a god like year, and the Angels could still finish in third place.

I definitely think his recent string of injuries have made many question where he will actually end up in Baseball history. As it's been said, many times, only time will tell.

I will also say, while I would love to see him finish out his career with the Angels. I have a feeling, that he will eventually be moved to an east coast team. I know he grew up watching the Phillies, it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up there.

[RCMcKenzie]

Originally Posted by chaddurbin

Sandy Koufax is more like Goose Gossage and had half the careers of Bert Blyleven and Don Sutton?

#mikescott4life

Nice post. Ha-Ha. You responded in kind. It does kind of sound like something I would say in a HOF debate.

Koufax was great, as is Trout. Man, I dunno, Goose Gossage was really good, too. Sutton is an all-time great. I won't go on.

[Hxcmilkshake]

Probably the same guy who compared Bobby Grich to Derek Jeter.

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[RCMcKenzie]

Best 5 seasonal totals...

Bagwell Runs Trout
152................. 129
143................. 123
126....................115
124....................110
111....................109

HR
48........................39
43........................39
40........................32
37.........................32
37.........................28

RBI

135.......................111
132.......................104
130........................100
126........................97
120........................90

Wins v Replacement Player %
8.2...........................10.5
7.7...........................10.5
7.5............................9.9
7.4............................9.6
6.3............................8.9


Bagwell played 15 seasons and Trout has played 13.


Trout is 31 and Ohtani is 28. Do you guys concede that Ohtani is better than Trout from the eye test? I don't see Ohtani catching Trout in what you guys call "counting stats."

[Peter_Spaeth]

Check out Ty Cobb's home run totals.

[G1911]

Originally Posted by RCMcKenzie

what you guys call "counting stats."

Can anyone give a coherent argument that Runs, RBI's and HR's over a career or season is NOT a counting stat?

Some of this crap is just absolutely ridiculous lol

[mrreality68]

If you enjoy betting

What would the over/under be on the # of times Trout Plays in the Playoffs/